Why a move for Lamar Jackson is unrealistic for the 49ers

Lamar Jackson’s contract

It’s been fairly clear that Lamar Jackson is going to demand a hefty salary, regardless of where he plays next, as he could possibly earn $200+ million in guaranteed money after Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray earned $189.5 million in guarantees on his five-year, $230.5 million deal last offseason.

Jackson, however, has reportedly demanded a fully-guaranteed contract, on par with Deshaun Watson’s five-year, $230 million, fully guaranteed deal.

The San Francisco 49ers have maneuvered the cap well over the Kyle Shanahan era, but Jackson would require them to break the bank open, which likely means cost-cutting measures elsewhere down the line.

The 49ers are currently structured to withhold a rookie contract at quarterback which has been their preferred deal since they drafted Trey Lance, and has allowed for the team to extend several key pieces like wideout Deebo Samuel.

Additionally, the value it would require to trade for Lamar Jackson, given the necessity for a sign-and-trade since San Francisco doesn’t hold a 2023 first-round pick, would be significant, seeing how older quarterbacks like Russell Wilson fetched a haul in return.

But, the number one reason why a potential trade isn’t realistic isn’t due to money or trade value.

The Baltimore Ravens

Based on the initial response from opposing teams publicly, it appears that the Baltimore Ravens elected to franchise tag Lamar Jackson to allow the quarterback to see his market, as it doesn’t seem that other owners are willing to pay a fully guaranteed contract for the former MVP.

Additionally, if it’s not a guaranteed contract, and instead matches similarly to what other quarterback deals have been, the Ravens have allowed another team to essentially negotiate for them, as they have the option of matching any offer sheet submitted for Jackson.

The Ravens have remained steadfast in their desire to retain Jackson, with guaranteed money appearing as the primary dispute, so if that situation gets solved for them via an opposing team’s tender, they could very well match a deal and keep their star quarterback through his prime.

If a team does indeed elect to give Lamar Jackson an offer sheet, the Ravens would have five days to match, keeping that team hampered over the period of time in free agency, once again de-incentivizing an early offer.

Now, should the 49ers entertain the idea of trading for Jackson? Absolutely.

Kyle Shanahan’s No. 1 problem during his tenure as San Francisco’s coach has been the inability to figure out his quarterback situation, which has hampered the 49ers during their numerous playoff runs, depriving the head coach of a championship.

But, given all the factors presented: San Francisco’s cap situation, trade value, and the Baltimore Ravens’ tactics, the move just doesn’t seem likely at the moment for the 49ers.