Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks' QB, TE, D/ST, kicker Blueprint for Week 4
The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be an
It's impossible to get every ranking thoroughly by Thursday Night Football, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always,
Note: Total-yardage projections are based on betting markets.
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Week 4 Projected Points
Most of the charts you will see are scatterplots. They are labeled as best as I can, and if you are looking for more information, always scan the title of each chart. This chart is simply projected points and plays per game. The best fantasy teams are up and to the right, so the Saints have a chance to deliver a raucous performance.
Week 4 QB Rankings
1. Josh Allen (vs. NE) – 21.9 proj. points
2. Lamar Jackson (vs. TEN) – 21.2 proj. points
3. Patrick Mahomes (at LV) – 20 proj. points
4. Joe Burrow (vs. JAX) – 20.6 proj. points
5. Tyler Shough (vs. ATL) – 20.8 proj. points
6. Trevor Lawrence (at CIN) – 21 proj. points
7. Brock Purdy (vs. DEN) – 19.8 proj. points
The 49ers became the 10th offense ever to not allow a sack in the first three games, joining four Dan Marino offenses and two Peyton Manning offenses. They have four negative plays compared to three wins, per Gregg Rosenthal. Insanity.
Brock Purdy would be the MVP so far, and his timing and trust in the offense are as good as anyone's right now. Purdy is also an underrated playmaker and deserves complete fantasy football respect. Since 2025, Purdy trails only Josh Allen in fantasy points per game (22.3). Things will get more challenging if Mike Evans joins De'Zhaun Stribling, Demarcus Robinson and others on the sideline, but Kyle Shanahan is so deep in his bag that it's hard to get overly concerned, as long as LT Trent Williams is in the lineup.
8. Jared Goff (at CAR) – 19.6 proj. points
9. Bryce Young (vs. DET) – 20.1 proj. points
10. Kyler Murray (vs. MIA) – 19.3 proj. points
11. Jalen Hurts (vs. LAR) – 19.6 proj. points
12. Bo Nix (at SF) – 19.6 proj. points
13. C.J. Stroud (vs. DAL) – 19.9 proj. points
14. Dak Prescott (at HOU) – 20.8 proj. points
15. Matthew Stafford (at PHI) – 19.2 proj. points
16. Jordan Love (at TB) – 19.3 proj. points
17. Marcus Mariota (vs. IND) – 20.3 proj. points
18. Daniel Jones (at WAS) – 19.1 proj. points
19. Drake Maye (at BUF) – 20.9 proj. points
20. Jacoby Brissett (at NYG) – 18.9 proj. points
21. Geno Smith (at CHI) – 19.3 proj. points
22. Sam Darnold (vs. LAC) – 18.2 proj. points
23. Michael Penix Jr. (at NO) – 18.5 proj. points
24. Case Keenum (vs. NYJ)
25. Kirk Cousins (vs. KC) – 18 proj. points
26. Jameis Winston (vs. ARI) – 17.8 proj. points
27. Aaron Rodgers (at CLE) – 16.7 proj. points
28. Justin Herbert (at SEA) – 15.1 proj. points
29. Deshaun Watson (vs. PIT) – 14.2 proj. points
30. Malik Willis (at MIN) – 14.6 proj. points
31. Jalon Daniels (vs. GB) – 15.5 proj. points
32. Cam Ward (at BAL) – 13.5 proj. points
Week 4 TE Rankings
1. Brock Bowers (vs. KC) – 72.5 proj. yards
Bowers returned to 21.5 expected half PPR points in Week 3. That was his third-best usage in a game throughout his career and the second-most by a TE this season. New HC Klint Kubiak took his deployment to a new level. Bowers played far more snaps out wide than normal, then played a lot more snaps in the slot compared to as an inline TE. He's functionally more of a real WR than a true TE at this point. This is getting close to the Jaxon Smith-Njigba role, and Bowers is skilled enough to handle outlier usage. He'd be a first-round pick in fantasy football right now.
2. Trey McBride (at NYG) – 67.5 proj. yards
McBride nearly had two TDs last week, one on a DPI and another being tackled at the inch-line. Even if Michael Wilson is on a tear, McBride is getting funneled high-value looks underneath. He's been elite on tape as usual, as the TE2 on TE2 overall usage this year. The only other player in his neighborhood is Brock Bowers. McBride has eclipsed 15.6 expected half PPR points in all three games this year — that is insane.
3. George Kittle (vs. DEN) – 64.5 proj. yards
Kittle is back to cooking. He had a few whip routes underneath that resulted in a missed tackle or two, then had two awesome scores in the red area on great designs. He was matched up with a stand-up edge rusher for an angle route TD, then leaked out on a play-action play with 90 seconds left, up by two points, where nobody covered him.
Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy are at the very top of their game, and the 49ers are suddenly relying on Kittle way earlier than expected due to injuries to Mike Evans (ribs), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle), Demarcus Robinson (ankle), Jake Tonges and others. Kittle is the TE5 on TE10 usage this season, with back-to-back games inside the top six at the position. Whew.
Congrats to those who drafted him at an injury discount (sadly, not me).
4. Dalton Kincaid (vs. NE) – 50.5 proj. yards
Kincaid had a four-game streak of 10+ half PPR points before last week's random dud, but that happens in fantasy. Kincaid remains the TE6 on TE10 usage, TE11 targets and TE9 receptions. He's always a threat for multiple scores, too, as the Bills once again project for a near league-high 27.5 points. A date with the Patriots means potentially more targets to TEs with elite CB1 Christian Gonzalez expected to be all over DJ Moore out wide. Kincaid was the TE25 in Week 15 against them last year but had 108 yards in Week 5 and then two games of 75+ yards in 2023 as a rookie.
5. Tyler Warren (at WAS) – 46.5 proj. yards
Warren's 11.5 expected half PPR points last week were his most of the season, and that likely isn't a coincidence with Alec Pierce (heel) sidelined. Warren was used more as an intermediate target rather than solely as a manufactured YAC player, and the results were generally positive despite facing an elite Texans defense.
A date with the Commanders means he'll face first-round rookie LB Sonny Styles (dog) but potentially backups around him with Frankie Luvu (questionable) and Leo Chenal (IR) injured. The Commanders have already allowed three top-14 finishers at TE this season, with AJ Barner (TE14), Jake Ferguson (TE4) and Dallas Goedert (TE2) popping off for outlier games.
6. Juwan Johnson (vs. ATL) – 40.5 proj. yards
In 14 Tyler Shough games, Johnson is the TE7 on TE8 usage, TE4 receptions, TE3 yards, TE4 yards per target and TE3 catchable target rate. He's also a total monster after the catch and one of my favorite players to watch. Bring on the chaos!!! The Saints are averaging 39 dropbacks with Shough, which is third-best since 2025, so there is a volume-based floor associated with everyone on the team.
The matchup is a great one. The Saints are projected for 25.0 points against the Falcons, and that defense has been seventh-worst against fantasy TEs this season, featuring blow-up games from Darren Waller (TE5) and Pat Freiermuth (TE6).
7. Travis Kelce (at LV) – 47.5 proj. yards
Kelce still is the leader in yards after the catch this season. He had an explosive on the same leak route that the Dolphins allowed to George Kittle the previous week (good scouting by KC), then did nothing until he found the end zone on his last play of the game. Kelce is the TE4 on some pretty fluky explosive plays, but he looks quicker than he did in previous seasons and is holding strong on TE12 expected half PPR points, TE8 targets per game and a team-high 20% target share (TE9). Kelce is an every-week top-10 option, with the Chiefs offense rolling.
In his previous three games with Mahomes against the Raiders, Kelce has been the TE20, TE11 and TE4 overall. I'd argue this Vegas defense is a tier above those units. The Chiefs are still projected for 26.0 points as road favorites.
8. Sam LaPorta (at CAR) – 48.5 proj. yards
LaPorta usually is extremely efficient, but he's actually a positive regression candidate right now as the TE17 on TE5 expected half PPR points. He's due for better scoring luck, and a matchup with the pass-funnel Panthers could do the trick, especially after all of their recent injuries.
9. Kenyon Sadiq (at CHI) – 41.5 proj. yards
In his first game without Mason Taylor (thumb), Sadiq was the TE4 on TE9 expected half PPR points and a strong 21% target share. He had one of the best plays of the week on a Geno Smith backside-progression seam ball that required a diving catch for a TD. Sadiq also found space behind LBs on a big crossing route for an explosive play, in addition to having a few receptions underneath. It's exactly what I'd imagine the workload to look like with AD Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. also out. That said, Sadiq only played 58% of snaps and 59% of routes as he learns more of the playbook and shows himself better as a blocker. His range of outcomes is as wide as any at the TE1/2 border.
10. Darren Waller (vs. DET) – 23.5 proj. yards
Waller could be the Panthers’ No. 2 target with Jalen Coker (quad) sidelined. Waller had 8.3 expected half PPR points (TE12) with seven targets last week after Coker and TE Mitchell Evans left early. Waller still has some juice on tape (TE14 in YPG), and even if he didn't, there is still a red-zone prowess that ages gracefully. The Panthers are projected for 24.0 points, and they could be in negative game script against a high-powered Lions defense that should feast on an injured Carolina defense. Garbage-time production seems bankable this week, just as it was for previous TEs against Detroit: Kenyon Sadiq (TE4), Dalton Kincaid (TE3), Juwan Johnson (TE7) and even Colston Loveland last year in Week 18 (TE1).
11. Mark Andrews (vs. TEN) – 37.5 proj. yards
Andrews is the TE20 on TE17 usage in his games with Lamar Jackson since 2025. His success rate and EPA per target during that span are bottom-10 over that span, and he's had eight straight games finishing with fewer points than his usage would indicate. Andrews simply doesn't have much left in the tank at the catch point and after the catch, so he's trending towards TD-or-bust in his age-31 season. Andrews is the TE21 on TE13 usage and TE9 targets as a boom-bust option. The good news is the Ravens are projected for 27.0 points against the Titans.
12. Colston Loveland (vs. NYJ) – 33.5 proj. yards
Loveland had a 31% target share in his last four games last year, including the NFL Playoffs. He's at 10% this year.
I don't get it.
I really don't get how he didn't score on that ball in the flats either. After rewatching all of his snaps, there are high-value routes deeper down the field than most TEs, but he's not winning on them as much as I thought he would. There are a lot of options underneath with Kalif Raymond, Luther Burden III and both RBs, so he has to be dominant in the intermediate game to have a high floor each week. He's the TE60 on TE28 usage and TE25 usage. This is a total shock.
13. Tucker Kraft (at TB) – 41.5 proj. yards
Kraft is playing nearly every snap at this point, and they could really use him as a third target with Jayden Reed (neck) out for the season and with the RB room in as bad of a spot as I can remember. Kraft is getting used (TE12 usage and TE10 targets per game), but he's made an unreal amount of critical mistakes. The drops are wild to watch, and he's also been a mess as a run blocker in terms of grasping his assignment. He's typically awesome in both categories, so hopefully things regress positively for him. His straight-line speed looked good back in Week 1, when he leaked out for a pair of explosives.
14. Tyler Higbee (at PHI)
Higbee is the sneaky pickup of the week. He balled out in the "Terrance Ferguson role" in Week 3, and Ferg Daddy is reportedly "unlikely" to play next week with his ankle injury. Colby Parkinson is also questionable with an AC joint and knee injury, while we also wait to hear back on Puka Nacua's mysterious groin injury (but Sean McVay expects him to play in Week 4). Higbee had eight grabs on 11 targets, leading to a wild 16.6 expected half PPR points (TE3 overall). He's been a fantasy monster whenever Sean McVay has called on him, and they just might need him next Sunday.
15. Isaiah Likely (vs. ARI) – 39.5 proj. yards
Week 4 will be telling. The Giants stunk in Jameis Winston's fill-in appearance against the Rams' well-coached defense, and they didn't even try last week in the rain. They had a week-low 29% neutral pass rate, and Winston didn't attempt anything downfield. Likely was missed a few times on simple throws underneath, and Winston's arm was very concerning on tape; it looks out of gas. That's not the worst thing ever for a TE, but Winston didn't get the ball to Likely a couple of times because of it. He was only the TE26 in expected half PPR points last week and shouldn't be trusted in Week 4. He's an upside TE2 just in case they turn things around.
16. Harold Fannin (vs. PIT) – 38.5 proj. yards
17. Dalton Schultz (vs. DAL) – 42.5 proj. yards
18. Pat Freiermuth (at CLE) – 26.5 proj. yards
19. T.J. Hockenson (vs. MIA)
20. Jake Ferguson (at HOU) – 23.5 proj. yards
21. Brenton Strange (at CIN) – 33.5 proj. yards
22. Hunter Henry (at BUF) – 31.5 proj. yards
23. Kyle Pitts Sr. (at NO) – 28.5 proj. yards
24. Oronde Gadsden II (at SEA) – 25.5 proj. yards
25. Mike Gesicki (vs. JAX) – 29.5 proj. yards
26. AJ Barner (vs. LAC) – 31.5 proj. yards
27. Michael Mayer (vs. KC) – 21.5 proj. yards
28. Evan Engram (at SF) – 17.5 proj. yards
29. Darnell Washington (at CLE) – 18.5 proj. yards
30. Colby Parkinson (at PHI)
31. Greg Dulcich (at MIN) – 27.5 proj. yards
32. Gunnar Helm (at BAL) – 18.5 proj. yards
33. Zach Ertz (vs. IND)
34. Cade Otton (vs. GB) – 25.5 proj. yards
Week 4 Defense Chart
The best defenses are going to be bottom right, but the deeper into the season, the better this data in particular will get. Right now, projected sack rate is using 2025 data and we know that only translates so much.
Week 4 Kicker Chart
