UCF football, Arizona State battle for bowl eligibility: Preview, predictions

ORLANDO — Every football team in the Big 12 is just about on level pegging, UCF head coach Scott Frost believes. That holds particularly true with regard to the Knights and their next opponent, Arizona State.

UCF and Arizona State, which makes its first trip to the Acrisure Bounce House at 3:30 p.m. Saturday, share identical 5-4 records with 3-3 conference marks. Their offenses and defenses average similar scoring figures, and both teams have cycled through multiple quarterbacks due to injury — as well as inefficiency in Arizona State's case.

"You guys agree it's all pretty close watching the games this year? I hope you do," Frost rhetorically asked during his press conference earlier in the week. "You've got to play well that week. Turnovers become even more important, and penalties and playing a clean game. The biggest differentiator, to me, is quarterback play."

In that department, the two teams could not be further apart as it pertains to experience. Redshirt senior Alonza Barnett III helped James Madison reach last year's College Football Playoff and then transferred to UCF. Arizona State counters with freshman Jake Fette, set to make his third career start.

Can the Knights keep things rolling and clinch bowl eligibility? The News-Journal's trio of Chris Boyle, Chris Vinel and Ken Willis share their thoughts and predictions.

UCF vs. Arizona State tale of the tape

Nov 7, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; UCF Knights quarterback Alonza Barnett III (14) runs the ball against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half of the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Barnett returned to the Knights' starting lineup and engineered a clutch, go-ahead drive in the final minute. He capped it with a 6-yard touchdown pass to Caden Piening with one second left on the clock, and Will Stone booted the decisive PAT in a 33-32 win, snapping UCF's 12-game road losing streak that dated back to September 2024.

UCF troublingly squandered a 19-point lead over the final 25 minutes. A month earlier, the Knights allowed 27 unanswered points at Houston after going ahead 17-0 in the third quarter.

Josh Derry caught eight passes for a season-high 143 yards and a touchdown. The Knights' defense recovered a pair of fumbles, improving the team's takeaway total to 14 for the year — tied for 25th in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Fette became the first Arizona State quarterback to catch a touchdown pass since Jake Plummer in 1996. In his second career start, he completed 13 of 19 attempts for 187 yards and a touchdown against Colorado.

Arizona State wide receiver Reed Harris (3) celebrates a touchdown pass against Colorado during a game at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, on Nov. 7, 2026.

Cardae Mack, another first-year Sun Devil, rushed for 80 yards. Reed Harris, the Big 12's leading receiver, caught four balls for 104 yards and a touchdown.

Owen Long made 17 tackles as Arizona State's defense limited its third consecutive opponent to under 100 rushing yards.

The Sun Devils alternated wins and losses through each of their nine games, and they have gone 1-3 away from home. The lone win, however, occurred in London in the neutral-site Union Jack Classic against Kansas.

Extending and finishing drives have been weaknesses for Arizona State. It ranks last in the Big 12 in third-down conversion rate (30.4%) and third-to-last in red zone offense with 18 touchdowns on 30 possessions.

UCF vs. Arizona State scouting report: What we're watching

LAWRENCE, KANSAS - NOVEMBER 07: Running back Taevion Swint #4 of the UCF Knights celebrates a touchdown run against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on November 07, 2026 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

Chris Boyle: Will Taevion Swint handle a significantly larger workload in the Knights' backfield?

Duke Watson is out with a foot injury, per the Big 12's initial availability report, but Landen Chambers appears to be good to go. Swint returned last weekend after missing the previous two games with an ankle injury, and he made an impact with a long kickoff return to open the second half and a 1-yard touchdown run.

For the year, Swint has 40 rushing attempts — no more than nine in a single game. However, Osceola High relied on him heavily for four years, giving him 581 carries which resulted in 4,805 yards and 64 touchdowns. This is a huge opportunity for the former four-star recruit, and he feels physically ready for it.

"Staying in the training room, building my body back up, getting back right, stay ready when your number gets called," Swint said. "If one goes down, somebody else has got to step up."

Chris Vinel: UCF killed that long road losing streak last week. Can it end two other streaks Saturday?

The Knights have not won back-to-back conference games since November 2023 during their first season in the Big 12. They edged Cincinnati on the road and then blasted a ranked Oklahoma State squad in the Space Game.

A victory against Arizona State would also clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since that year.

Ken Willis: I'm gonna keep it short and sweet, and agree with the UCF head coach. Assuming no other glaring issues come about (turnovers or bad flags), the difference will be in the pocket, where the Knights seem to bring a clear QB advantage.

Also, as mentioned, the Wildcats' only road win was a neutral-site game in London of all places. Inside sources confirm the Bounce House concessions don't serve mediocre fish-and-chips or warm beer.

UCF vs. Arizona State injury updates

Sep 3, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Bethune-Cookman quarterback Tyler Jefferson (5) is sacked by Central Florida linebacker Lewis Carter (20) during the first quarter at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Senior linebacker Lewis Carter is expected to play for the Knights, ending a six-game absence due to a knee injury late in the fourth quarter of Sept. 19 win over Georgia State. The team's leading tackler in 2025, Carter made 24 stops in his three previous appearances this fall.

Jayden Jennings, Jahleel Culbreath and Cole Kozlowski have taken the majority of reps next to Tackett Curtis in UCF's 4-2-5 scheme during Big 12 play.

"When I see Lewis Carter on the field, I just feel better, whether I should or not," Knights defensive coordinator Alex Grinch said.

Redshirt senior safety Demari Henderson joins Watson among six Knights listed out as of Nov. 11. In a bit of a surprise, sophomore wide receiver Waden Charles is doubtful, possibly a result of the fall he took attempting to make a circus catch on the final drive versus Kansas.

Senior quarterback Keyone Jenkins, redshirt freshman tight end Caden Piening and redshirt freshman center Jacob Maiava are all questionable.

Arizona State's Rodney Bimage Jr. celebrates a fumble recovery against Texas Tech during a Big 12 Conference football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, at Galaxy Stadium.

Arizona State lost its fourth starter for the season as junior cornerback Rodney Bimage suffered a lower-leg injury against Colorado, head coach Kenny Dillingham said. Tight end Khamari Anderson, safety Lyrik Rawls, and defensive lineman My'Keil Gardner were previously sidelined for the Sun Devils.

Filiva'a Lokotui, the Sun Devils' highest-graded pass blocker, is probable, while starting center Wade Helton is questionable to start the week.