Possible fates US soldier Travis King may be facing in North Korea after fleeing across border

Speculation continues to mount over the fate of American soldier Travis King after he fled into North Korean territory earlier this week — with the US revealing the hermit kingdom has gone silent about his well-being and fate.

From being used as a propaganda tool to being propped up as a potential bargaining chip, the guesses about North Korea’s next steps vary widely given there’s little precedent for King’s situation, experts and former diplomats say.

The 23-year-old, who is the first US soldier in decades to defect to North Korea, bolted across the border on Tuesday during a civilian tour of the tightly controlled Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas.

North Korea is likely to milk the border crossing for propaganda purposes — especially given King voluntarily entered the country.

How long King remains there will likely depend on whether North Koreans find a way to spin his story, according to some analysts.

“If they decide that he’s not a good story, they may just return him so that this doesn’t exacerbate already fragile relations [with the US],”  Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and director of the North Korea-focused 38 North website, said.

“This is largely a wait-and-see as there’s just so little precedent for it.”

A private with the Army’s 1st Armored Division, King had legal issues and was facing disciplinary action and a possible discharge after serving two months in a South Korean prison on assault charges.

While the soldier’s most immediate value would be propaganda, North Korea could also try to use him as a bargaining chip to engage with Washington, according to Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in South Korea.

Pyongyang could demand that the US scale back its military activities with South Korea in exchange for King’s release, he added.

North Korea’s goal could be to create a dilemma for Washington in “choosing between U.S.-South Korean nuclear deterrence strategies and protecting its own citizen,” Yang said.

“That would create challenges for South Korea, which has been focusing on strengthening nuclear deterrence strategies with the United States.”

Still, North Korea hasn’t really ever been able to use such cases for geopolitical leverage, according to Andrei Lankov, director of the Seoul-based Korea Risk Group.

“I cannot recall a case when they managed to use it as leverage to extract serious concessions, but domestically they have some gains because their propaganda presents it as another failure of another American provocation, with the American imperialists on their knees begging for forgiveness,” Lankov said.

North Korea also has a standard playbook for treating Western detainees well to avoid any possible political blowback, according to Lankov.

The exception, however, was American college student Otto Warmbier, who was held in a North Korea prison for 18 months and died shortly after being returned to the US in a coma in 2017.

Lankov said the chances are fairly low that King would face the same kind of fatal treatment given that one-off event involving Warmbier only led to problems for North Korea.

“They treat Western citizens dramatically different from how they treat their own citizens,” Lankov said, adding that detainees are often housed in the equivalent of a four-star hotel.

“Their conditions are better not only than the average North Korean prisoner, but of the average North Korean citizen.”

Thae Yong Ho, a former diplomat at the North Korean Embassy in London who defected to South Korea in 2016, said Pyongyang hasn’t ever released an American soldier who walked into the country voluntarily — but it was unclear whether they’d want to hold King for long anyway.

He citied King’s low rank and the likelihood he only possesses low level US military intelligence, as well as the high costs of managing his life, as reasons for why he might be cut loose.

“A specialized security and surveillance team must be organized [for King], an interpreter must be arranged, a designated vehicle and driver must be provided, and accommodation must be arranged. … You also need to indoctrinate him into the North Korean system, so you will need to organize a team of specialized teachers and a curriculum,” Thae said.

But the current high tensions between Washington and Pyongyang could complicate diplomatic efforts to bring King home, some experts say.

“The only thing that’s certain for now is that North Korea will handle King entirely the way it wants to, 100%,” Park Won Gon, a professor at Seoul’s Ewha University, said.

“When an American goes into North Korea, they usually are used for political purposes, regardless of whether they want it or not.”

With Post wires