How “The CP3 Effect” can help the Spurs turn things around
Chris Paul has made every team he’s joined better, but what he will bring to San Antonio may be even brighter still.
The Spurs will take the court in less than four weeks for their 2024-2025 season debut. This yet-to-play roster will feature several new faces, most notable among them being point guard Chris Paul. Paul is a future Hall of Famer with an impressive resume—11 All-NBA Teams, 12 All-Star appearances, and 9 All-Defense teams to go along with a handful of assist and steal titles—but what he will bring to San Antonio can elegantly be summed up in one vital statistic: Wins.
In a phenomenon dubbed the “Chris Paul Effect” or “CP3 Effect,” teams that add Paul rack up regular-season wins, especially in his inaugural season with the franchise: a trend that can be traced to his rookie year. Of the six franchises that Paul has played for previously, all of them had better seasons the year they added him. On average, teams improve by 8.67 wins during Paul’s first year on the roster. All in all, every team he joins benefits from his presence. Once could be a fluke, twice could be a coincidence, beyond that, it’s a pattern.
The 2005 New Orleans Hornets won 18 games. In 2006, after drafting Paul fourth overall, they won 38 with Paul taking home Rookie of the Year honors. The 2011 Los Angeles Clippers won 32 games, they traded for Paul and won 40 the next season. The trend continued in Houston: the 2017 Rockets won 55 games, the 2018 Rockets won 65 setting a franchise record. Phoenix had the same result. The team improved by 17 from 2020 to 2021, setting another franchise wins record the year after that with 64 wins. Even the mighty Warriors last season gained two more victories when after trading for Paul.
Franchise win records have actually been another trend unto themselves. In addition to the Houston and Phoenix records, Paul was a part of both the Hornets (2008, 56 wins) and Clippers (2014, 57 wins) franchise-best seasons, becoming the only player to be a part of four franchise win record seasons.
Despite those records though, the season Paul is most proud of is the one that didn’t see an increase in wins, in Oklahoma City. While the team technically won five fewer games with Paul than the preceding year, the overall win percentage was still better (.611 compared to .598) due to a season shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Remarkably, he singlehandedly led a rebuilding team to the playoffs against all odds and took the Houston Rockets to seven games.
“That year I played in Oklahoma City is something I’ll never forget,” Paul told The Athletic’s Anthony Slater in a 2022 interview. “That was my first year living away from my family. The relationship I got with my teammates and fans. The fans were amazing. I always hate that that season got cut short because of COVID-19. That was a big season, big summer for me, going through things I hadn’t gone through since I’d been in the league.”
Why that year should stick out even more so for Spurs fans, is how much youth was on that team in parallel to the youth he is now surrounded by. Oklahoma City had a yet-to-be budding young star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who just finished second in MVP voting. The Spurs have reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama, who is already the face of the league. Now officially in the twilight of his career, Paul will generate wins but his veteran mentorship might be even more valuable than what he brings to the box score. The fact that the season Paul looks at the fondest is one where he had more teaching opportunities bodes well for the young roster he will soon play with.
Coach Gregg Popovich knew what he was doing when he brought Paul in alongside another NBA veteran Harrison Barnes. “Having [Paul] and Harrison at this stage of [their] careers is really wonderful for the youth we have,” Popovich said recently. “When a player that you respect says the same stuff that we’re saying, to a player sometimes that’s a lot more valuable. Having them around is going to be super.”
While the Spurs are not likely to set a franchise wins record, it’s nearly inexorable that they will exceed 22 wins, corroborating the CP3 Effect. What’s more, is the mentorship and veteran presence he brings to a young team with a blooming star. Paul can provide discipline on and off the court, showing this group of young talent how to be a pro’s pro. He will be a real example of what it takes day in and day out to be top talent in the NBA, something Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, and Stephon Castle haven’t seen before.
The trend is clear, Chris Paul makes teams better. Better yet, the habits and conscientiousness he instills will prove to be compounding in both the short and long term. Therefore the “Chris Paul Effect” will be twofold. Winning basketball games and teaching others how to win basketball games.