2024 NBA Eastern Conference second-round preview: Knicks vs Pacers

After surviving a battle of attrition against Philly, how do the Knickerbockers match up against the frisky Pacers?

After an absolute war of a series against the Sixers, Knicks fans can exhale now… somewhat.

Next up? An intriguing matchup with Indiana, a team that also leans heavily on a heliocentric point guard in Tyrese Haliburton. Now that the NBA world has experienced an awakening to both him and Jalen Brunson, there should be no surprises regarding their level of play.

Unfortunately, Haliburton hasn’t looked the same since returning from injury, as he’s currently shooting under 30% from three in the playoffs. Even so, there are enough stylistic differences between the two teams to make this a close series, even if the Knickerbockers should be favored.

Let’s analyze the storylines in this matchup.

Note: unless otherwise specified, all the regular season stats used are from after the All-Star break, when Indiana acquired Pascal Siakam and New York traded for OG Anunoby.

Key storylines

New York’s offensive rebounding

By now, everyone knows that the Knicks’ bread and butter is grabbing offensive rebounds and generating second-chance points. Post All-Star break, they were second league-wide in OREB% at 32.2% and averaged 19.2 second-chance points in their first-round series against Philly, which currently leads all playoff teams. It’s not an exaggeration to say that New York’s offensive rebounding won them the series, as they stole game two by crashing the glass and regained the lead in game six by doing the same.

On the other hand, Indiana has been a poor defensive-rebounding team for much of the season. The Pacers grabbed just 72.8% of opponent misses, ranking 20th in DREB% over that same post-All-Star stretch. With Siakam and Turner entrenched in the team’s frontcourt, it’s unlikely that Indiana will tweak their rotation to mitigate the issue. Thus, it’s instrumental for them to take advantage of the transition opportunities that could open up when the Knicks crash the glass, which leads to their transition attack.

Indiana’s transition offense

The Pacers ranked ninth in both frequency of plays (15.8%) and points per play (1.305) in transition in the regular season. However, New York is a surprisingly good transition defense given their tendency to grab offensive rebounds — the Knicks ranked sixth in points conceded (1.208) and fourth in frequency of plays allowed (12.6%) in transition over that same span.

One side will bend, and it’ll be interesting to see if either team changes their identity. Tom Thibodeau has historically been very set in his ways, but is Rick Carlisle willing to double down on transition at the expense of potentially giving up more second-chance points? Or can he live with sacrificing some offense to grab more defensive rebounds? Only time will tell.

The turnover game

Indiana’s been a very responsible offensive team, having the second-lowest turnover rate at just 11.4% in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are excellent at forcing turnovers, as their opponents gave up the ball on 14.7% of possessions.

In their series against the Sixers, New York constantly trapped Embiid and Maxey to get the ball out of their hands.

If the Knicks are willing to concede an Embiid mismatch, then they’ll definitely be comfortable with doing the same with Siakam. Thus, assuming New York is successful in getting the ball out of Haliburton’s hands, then they’ll be able to force more turnovers and diminish one of Indiana’s biggest strengths.

Indiana’s rim attempts vs New York’s rim protection

While the Knicks’ frequency of rim attempts and conversion rate are both below average, Indiana’s shot diet is heavily concentrated in that area (35.5% of shots taken within four feet of the basket, 4th most) and they convert their chances at a high percentage, too (70.4%, 6th). Furthermore, New York conceded the second-highest percentage of opponent attempts around the basket (36%), so the Pacers will easily get shots off there.

With that said, the Knicks were also the best rim-protection team, as opponents were held to just 61.9% shooting around the basket — and they didn’t even have OG for most of the season. Simply put, New York will be even harder to score against at the rim with OG in the fold, and whoever wins the battle in the Knicks’ paint could swing the entire series.

The three-point battle

Another stylistic wrinkle to monitor is the number of threes that New York attempts. 39.8% of the Knicks’ shots came from deep (4th highest) in the regular season and they also hit them at a good percentage (37.3%, 4th).

Indiana, though, might be the best team at running shooters off the line. They only let 30.1% (1st) of opponent shots come from three, and they let in just 35.5% (5th lowest) on those attempts as well. (History, though, shows that teams don’t have much control over opponent three-point shooting).

With that in mind, it’ll be interesting to see which team dictates this battle more. Even if the Knicks can continue bombing away, three-point shooting is so volatile that such a scenario might not be as beneficial as it seems — especially when it involves this series’ x-factor.

X-factor: Josh Hart’s shooting

Apart from being the NBA’s most unhinged personality, Hart has turned himself into one of the league’s preeminent role players. The man makes millions to run around like a maniac, grab rebounds, and play defense, but one thing he’s not paid to do is hit threes at a high percentage.

In the regular season, Hart made just 31% of his attempts from deep, which is even lower than his career average of 34.4%. Therefore, Nick Nurse told to Sixers to ignore him behind the line, but Hart punished them by converting on 16/37 (43.2%) threes. However, he also shot just 1/9 in games four and five, and over 50% on triples in the other matches. For someone who is averaging checks note 46 minutes in the playoffs, having a hot or cold shooting night can swing an entire series, which is exactly what happened at the end of round 1.

Prediction: Knicks in 6

Indiana matches up well with New York in many ways, but Haliburton being less than 100% should swing the series in the Knicks’ favor. The Pacers will be disappointed to be sent home given that New York is banged up too, but hey, at least they beat the Bucks and can keep those game balls.

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.