Will running it back on defense trip up the Islanders?

As easy as it would have been for the Islanders to move on from Scott Mayfield this offseason as the defenseman hit free agency with the potential for greater earnings and a greater role elsewhere, the organization was about as interested in that possibility as Mayfield himself.

Bringing him back, which the Islanders did on July 1, using a seven-year contract to get Mayfield to an affordable $3.5 million average annual value, means in practice the Islanders almost certainly will go into opening night with the same seven defensemen who filled out their depth chart at the end of last season.

It is an interesting, albeit predictable, bet by a front office that has stood behind its philosophy at every potential inflection point.

Interesting because despite ranking fifth in goals allowed per game, the defense showed serious cracks last season when you drill past the surface.

It’s no surprise Ilya Sorokin made a huge difference in nets, but the level to which the Islanders relied on him was, to some degree, an indictment of the play in front of the goaltender.

At even strength, the Islanders allowed 2.16 goals per 60 minutes while allowing 2.74 expected goals per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. The expected to actual goals differential of .58 was the second-largest in the NHL, behind only the Bruins.

The Islanders also ranked 25th in high-danger chances allowed per 60.

Now, it’s true that even at their best, the Islanders have never been a favorite of advanced statistical models.

But the eye test backs up the stats here. Breaking out of the zone was also a frequent issue, and it was clear going into last season that mobility was a question mark for the defense corps.

Naturally, the same question hangs over this coming season.

“You’re never 100 percent comfortable, but I’m confident in this group,” Lou Lamoriello said when the question was put to him on a Zoom call following Mayfield’s signing. “When I say never 100 percent comfortable, you always like to get better.

“In our, sort of, defense, if I look at them, Ryan Pulock in my mind raised his game to the level that we thought he could be. In my mind, he was our best defenseman in the playoffs. Adam Pelech, I think we know what he brings in his game. And I think Noah Dobson has tremendous growth, and I think much was expected of him in his sophomore year after his sort of freshman year, and I know where he will go. And now with the size and strength of Scotty and also the growth of [Alexander] Romanov — Romanov came in and I thought, along with Ryan Pulock, has raised his game, especially coming off an injury. So I feel very good about it.”

What the general manager did not mention was the Islanders also went for nearly two months of the season without Pelech, which almost perfectly lined up with their nadir.

After the All-Star break, the numbers of expected goals and high-danger chances allowed both dropped to more palatable, if not incredible, levels.

You can view that as proof positive that a healthy version of the Islanders is just fine, or use their struggles without Pelech as reason to question the depth. Neither would be wrong.

Dobson, whose growth has been brought up as a positive multiple times by Lamoriello this offseason, is the most important player for this defense.

The plan last season was for him and Romanov to form the second pair. That didn’t last, and the combination of Dobson’s stagnating growth with the time it took Romanov to integrate himself created issues.

Romanov eventually did make the jump, and looks like someone the Islanders can trust with the potential to continue growing his game. When he was out late in the season, the drop-off was evident.

It’s a good thing for Dobson that Lamoriello has come out firing in his defense after the criticism Dobson took late in the season. And it is true that much of the criticism of his game is shaped by his perceived trajectory in his second year as an everyday player: After 51 points in 2021-22 represented a breakout, 49 points this season represented a disappointment.

That said, it’s also fair to point out Dobson did not look like the same player on the power play, which in turn suffered a major drop-off.

And Dobson getting shuffled to the third pair and playing largely sheltered minutes at five-on-five while his even-strength minutes declined from the previous season says more than the organization’s spin.

Of course, it doesn’t mean the team shouldn’t have faith in Dobson to progress.

He is young, talented and has shown an ability to produce in the league. But rolling with the same group means the ideal version of the lineup hasn’t changed — and it still requires Dobson to play next to Romanov while taking the next steps forward.

The Islanders have the flexibility to try other things if that doesn’t work, and they did for most of last season. But there is no way to have three balanced pairs without relying heavily on Dobson.

A New York parlor game

Comparing Dobson to K’Andre Miller always has been easy: The two players were born just two weeks apart, drafted 10 picks away from each other to New York teams and became everyday players at the same time.

Dobson’s three-year, $12 million bridge deal with the Islanders served as an easy comparison point for Miller heading into restricted free agency this summer, and, wouldn’t you know, he signed a two-year, $7.7 million deal with an AAV less than $200,000 short of Dobson’s.

Both will be restricted free agents again in 2025.

Dobson has outscored Miller in both of the past two seasons and has an edge in terms of offensive ability.

But given Miller’s importance for the Rangers thanks to his defensive contributions, you can make a strong argument he has the overall edge right now. In that sense, it was surprising to see his annual number come in under Dobson’s, even with the Rangers currently in a salary-cap bind.

It will be more interesting to see who comes out ahead two summers from now.

Bridgeport bound?

Rick Kowalsky and Chris Terreri are the two obvious candidates to take over for Brent Thompson with the Islanders’ AHL Bridgeport affiliate.

Kowalsky, Thompson’s assistant coach last year, figures to make the most sense, because Terreri mostly has worked as a goaltending and development coach.

The way Lamoriello runs things lends itself to an internal hire, which both of those names would be. An outside name, though, would be an interesting twist — and arguably merited.

The Islanders produced some out-of-the-park home runs during Thompson’s time behind the bench, especially on defense.

But the system hasn’t developed draft picks to quite the same level in recent seasons.

Since the 2016 draft, the only Islanders draftees to stick in the NHL after coming through Bridgeport are Oliver Wahlstrom and Sebastian Aho, and Aho only did after a prolonged stretch of struggling to break through.

Simon Holmstrom and Samuel Bolduc could add themselves to the list this season, and we wouldn’t count Arnaud Durandeau out either.

Results are secondary at the AHL level, but Thompson also never made it out of the first round of the playoffs.

There’s enough promise in the system right now to justify staying the course. The number of NHL debutants last season reflected well on Bridgeport.

But it wouldn’t hurt to at least consider an outside perspective.