Why the Spurs likely won’t get the Raptors’ first-rounder in 2024
Anything can happen in the NBA, but right now it seems the Raptors will likely go into the lottery with a good chance of keeping their pick.
One of the main distractions this season for Spurs fans has been following what happens in Toronto. The Raptors owe San Antonio a top-six protected first-round pick from the Jakob Poeltl trade that could convey in 2024 if a few things go right.
Right now, the Raptors have the sixth-worst record in the league and, provided something unlikely happened on lottery day, would get to keep it. But they are neck and neck with the Grizzlies jockeying for better lottery position, so things could change in the next few games. It’s not looking good for the Spurs, but let’s take a look at how things stand.
The Raptors have a tougher schedule than the Grizzlies
Both the Raptors and the Grizzlies have 50 losses each right now, with the Raptors having played one fewer game. According to Tankathon, Toronto has the 10th strongest schedule left while Memphis has the 25th strongest. In simple terms, the Raptors will face better teams in the last stretch of the season, which means that it’s more unlikely they will get wins.
A closer look reveals that the only two teams the Raptors could realistically be expected to beat are the Wizards and Nets. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have two games against the Pistons and one against the Spurs left in their last eight. There’s always the chance of an upset and some good teams rest players late in the season, but it’s not looking good for Memphis if the goal is to out-tank Toronto.
Digging even deeper, the Grizzlies are getting the Nuggets on the last game of their season. which could be either a good or a bad thing. If Denver is still fighting for the first seed, they will be focused and likely win, but if they are already locked to a specific spot, they might rest players, making it a potential win for the Grizzlies. As for the Raptors, they get the Heat in their last two games of the season. Miami is currently fighting for the sixth seed and the opportunity to avoid the play-in. If they still have a chance in those last two games, or if they are trying to avoid falling to eighth, they will be playing with purpose.
Just looking at their respective schedules, it seems unlikely the Raptors will win more games than the Grizzlies. But what about health?
Both the Grizzlies and the Raptors have massive injury reports
It’s no secret that the Grizzlies have been cursed by the basketball gods this year when it comes to injuries. Their latest injury report listed Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Santi Aldama, Zaire Williams, Derrick Rose, Yuta Watanabe and John Konchar. Some of those players have been out for a while and won’t return, including Morant. Others have had less serious injuries and have been in and out of the rotation. Basically, Memphis has been injury-stricken all season and has not built much familiarity. That’s not going to change in the next few weeks.
The Raptors haven’t struggled with injuries as much but if the recent injury reports are any indication, they are either not taking any chances or actively holding guys out. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl have all missed the last few games. Their absences probably explain why Toronto is on a 12-game losing streak right now. Whether some of them could theoretically suit up if they really needed to doesn’t matter. The Raptors surely have good enough reasons to hold them out if they want to.
Health shouldn’t play that much of a part in the tank-off as long as the Raptors, which have more motivation to actually try to lose, decide to keep some of their best players off the floor.
The Spurs made this harder on themselves, and could do it again
As mentioned, both the Grizzlies and Raptors have 50 losses. Memphis has one more win right now, and the Spurs are to blame for that.
Memphis is 2-8 on their last 10 games, with their other win coming against the Wizards. The Spurs are, by their record, a terrible team this year, so it shouldn’t be surprising that the Grizzlies beat them, even while plagued by injuries. But the game was in San Antonio, they were up 17 at one point, and it came down to a Jaren Jackson Jr. game-winner. Since then, the Silver and Black have won three of their last four. If they had actually beaten Memphis, getting the pick would seem a lot more likely.
The Spurs have another game to play against the Grizzlies and they better win that one if they want the Raptors pick, because the margin is razor-thin.
There you have it. As things stand, it feels like the Raptors will likely go into the lottery with a good chance of keeping their pick. The situation could change over the next eight games, so keep an eye out, but Spurs fans will probably have to wish for some luck with the ping-pong balls to get a second lottery pick.
