Why Evan Engram Doesn’t Fix Jaguars’ Problems at Tight End
In these editions of Four Downs, we’ll review the biggest hole on each team in the division and then give a short look at each team’s major free agents for 2023.
Houston Texans
Biggest Need: Quarterback
The Davis Mills experiment did not go well last year, in case you weren’t paying attention. Mills finished 31st of 34 qualified quarterbacks in passing DYAR and 30th in DVOA. The Texans spent the latter part of the season platooning Mills with practice squad non-entity Jeff Driskel in the red zone and on early downs, which is as damning a move as has ever existed when it comes to a quarterback whom you’re ostensibly evaluating .
Mills will be back for Year 3 of his rookie deal, but almost undoubtedly as a backup to someone else. The easy-to-connect dots on quarterback are a) drafting one with the No. 2 overall pick, b) trading for Trey Lance, or c) signing Jimmy Garoppolo. The Texans brought in 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator under former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, so obviously they are going to be linked to their former 49ers charges. But it seems a little unlikely that Lance will be dealt if there is uncertainty over Brock Purdy’s status for the start of next season, while Garoppolo looks to be a backup plan at quarterback for the teams that are closer to contention such as the Jets and Raiders.
The path of least resistance is probably just picking whomever strikes their fancy at the top of the draft—perhaps with a trade-up if necessary—and letting that quarterback take his lumps as the Texans play the role of young team that’s a year away in 2023.
Notable Free Agents: ER Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, ER Rasheem Green, C Scott Quessenberry, WR Chris Moore, S Jonathan Owens, CB Tavierre Thomas
Okoronkwo had a breakout season of sorts in 2022, notching a career-high five sacks and finishing second on the team in hurries behind Jerry Hughes. He’ll likely be a consolation prize for teams that miss on the big edge rushers on the market, and with Lovie Smith deposed there’s not really a connective tissue in bringing him back. Moore had a nice under-the-radar season and has done more downfield work than most Texans wideouts have with Mills, but he is an older free agent and might just be a No. 4 for a good team. Quessenberry was one of the worst starting centers in the NFL last year, but it’s not his fault that Justin Britt flat-out abandoned the team after Week 1—he could be good depth somewhere.
Indianapolis Colts
Biggest Need: Quarterback
When the team owner openly admits that he hired the new head coach with developing a young quarterback in mind at said head coach’s opening press conference … it’s probably a pretty good sign that you’re going to be drafting a quarterback with your fourth overall pick. Perhaps even higher in a trade-up to get ahead of the Texans.
Matt Ryan’s future with the team is probably non-existent as he can be cut to save $18 million in cap space this offseason. Nick Foles was here only for Frank Reich by his own admission. The team will likely enter the offseason with Sam Ehlinger at the top of the depth chart, but he didn’t play well enough in his small sample last season to conclusively say he has to be the No. 2 quarterback either.
The Colts could chase a veteran in addition to a youngster—perhaps an addition such as Mike White or Gardner Minshew (who has experience in Shane Steichen’s offense) to bridge to a rookie quarterback in the short term. But it’s abundantly clear what the owner wants this team to do, and he meddled enough last season that we all had to watch Jeff Saturday coach an NFL team.
Notable Free Agents: S Rodney McLeod, LB Bobby Okereke, WR Parris Campbell, ER Yannick Ngakoue, CB Brandon Facyson, LB E.J. Speed
McLeod turns 33 over the offseason and played well in incumbent defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s system in 2022; he would seem to be a solid re-signing while the Colts can give Nick Cross another offseason. Okereke has been more of a league-average fill-in than a solid player over the course of the last four years, but he had perhaps his best season in run defense. Campbell finally played a healthy season in his fourth year but was mostly just a short-range YAC guy in Indy’s impossibly short-game-heavy offense. His market will likely depend on what other teams project him to do deeper down the field. Ngakoue, an AFC South and Bradley veteran, could be a good bet to re-sign.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Biggest Need: Tight End
A one-year deal for Evan Engram last offseason wound up being a big hit in 2022—the sixth-year tight end had a career-high 766 receiving yards and was an offensive focal point at times, snagging eight or more targets in five different games, including a 162-yard, two-score devastation of the Titans in Week 14 to key Jacksonville’s AFC South comeback.
But now that he has done the prove-it part of a prove-it contract, the Jaguars have franchise tagged him rather than hand out a real deal. Engram turns 29 in September, and handing out long-term deals to older tight ends who aren’t historically unique players is generally regarded as bad general manager practice. That leaves Engram on the roster, but leaves his long-term future in some doubt.
And the problem is that the rest of the tight end position is also in some doubt. Even beyond Engram, Dan Arnold is a free agent. Chris Manhertz is a free agent. The only non-Engram tight end on the 53-man roster under contract is former Urban Meyer Legacy fifth-rounder Luke Farrell. Farrell has just 351 offensive snaps in two seasons. The Jaguars have done a pretty solid job of rebuilding over the last few seasons, and we weren’t going to waste a spot in this series on something like “linebackers” when they spent heavily to bring in Foyesade Oluokun, then drafted Devin Lloyd and Chad Muma. But the long-term plans at tight end remain a bit of a mystery.
Notable Free Agents: OT Jawaan Taylor, WR Marvin Jones, ER Arden Key, TE Chris Manhertz, ER Dawuane Smoot, TE Dan Arnold
Taylor wants to be back in Jacksonville and had his best season to date in 2022, blowing only 14 blocks in 15 starts per Sports Info Solutions’ data. With Cam Robinson already under contract and 2021 second-rounder Walker Little ready for a real role, it would seem that something has to give somewhere on the tackle depth chart. Key could command some real money after putting up 11 sacks combined in the last two seasons in the interior. Marvin Jones turns 33 in March and his target share fell off drastically as Zay Jones and Engram took over as main ancillary pieces behind Christian Kirk. Plus, you know, the Jaguars did trade for Calvin Ridley.
Tennessee Titans
Biggest Need: Offensive Line
Taylor Lewan has been released. Ben Jones (concussions) and Nate Davis (ankle) both ended the year on injured reserve; Jones is 34, Davis is a free agent. Those are the good players on this offensive line. Aaron Brewer and Dennis Daley—your 2023 blown block leader per Sports Info Solutions—were ghastly in extended trials. Nicholas Petit-Frere didn’t show much to be optimistic about in his first season. The less said about Dillon Radunz, the better.
The 2022 season was a reckoning for an offensive line that has been patched up over the years. It finally gave way, and gave way in an ugly enough way that names such as Jordan Roos and Le’Raven Clark surfaced to find real playing time.
Not only do the Titans need to re-sign Davis and find a real long-term replacement for Lewan, but you can argue that Jones’ replacement Corey Levin was the least of their worries as compared to ex-general manager Jon Robinson’s Radunz and Petit-Frere picks. The Titans have always prided themselves on being a physical, wear-you-down team in the trenches under Mike Vrabel. They’ll find some cap space this offseason, but their No. 1 priority to play the way that Vrabel wants to is fixing this line. You could argue that they need to sign three new starters with a straight face and I wouldn’t argue with you.
Notable Free Agents: G Nate Davis, LB David Long, OT Dennis Daley, TE Austin Hooper, RB Dontrell Hilliard, TE Geoff Swaim
Long took major steps forward in run defense in 2022 (well, really 2021, and then another step forward in 2022) and has always been a good pass-rusher for a linebacker. He could be someone the Titans lose as they jostle with the cap, as they have certainly never seemed overly committed to him throughout the course of his rookie deal. Tackling will probably always be an issue for him. Both Hooper and Swaim could find new homes as Tennessee establishes Chig Okonkwo as a foundational piece of their game, but the Titans will probably be on the lookout for at least one blocking tight end. Hilliard has been an exceptional change-of-pace for Derrick Henry and the Titans haven’t exactly seen big success from the younger backs they drafted or prioritized to beat him out. He’s a potential returner.
