Who are most at risk of Premier League relegation after Southampton’s huge win against Leicester?

As Unai Emery and Patrick Vieira shook hands at Villa Park in the wake of Aston Villa’s 1-0 win over Crystal Palace on Saturday, one manager knew Premier League safety was all but assured for next season. 

The other knew he had been roped into an almighty scrap for survival.

A sizeable chasm has now emerged between the top 11 and bottom nine. They may be 12th in the table, but Palace’s league position flatters to deceive.

In terms of points, the Eagles are now closer to the foot of the table than they are to Aston Villa directly above them, with just a six-point gap separating them from rock-bottom side Bournemouth. 

Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Leicester, Leeds, Everton and Southampton are sandwiched between Palace and the Cherries and are all at serious risk of the drop, in what promises to be one of the closest relegation tussles in Premier League history.

Therefore, with just 13 matches to go until judgement day, Sportsmail takes a look at the relegation picture to predict which three teams are most at risk of the drop.

Patrick Vieira has a relegation battle on his hands following Crystal Palace’s woeful run of form

Crystal Palace

With Manchester City, Brighton and Arsenal in their next three games, clouds at Selhurst Park are likely to darken for Crystal Palace in the immediate future.

Winless so far in 2023, there’s no denying Wilfried Zaha has been a huge miss for Vieira’s side, who have struggled for goals since the turn of the year.

The Ivorian hitman found the net with a sumptuous finish early on against Villa, highlighting the clinical touch Palace have been missing during his injury, but his effort was marginally chalked off for offside.

Without him, it’s been a torrid spell at Selhurst Park for Eagles fans.

Netting just four times in their last nine league fixtures, Palace have lost four and drawn five in 2023, slipping into relegation trouble despite a fruitful start to the campaign.

Palace’s freefall towards the foot of the table could continue with reigning champions City, high-flyers Brighton and league leaders Arsenal up next, but there are still plenty of opportunities for points between now and the end of May.

Their fate will rest almost entirely on the six-pointers they have left, with Palace set to face every single side in the bottom eight either at Selhurst Park or away from home.

Blessed with a solid defence in comparison to other teams in the mix, with Joachim Andersen and Marc Guehi continuing to make strides in their development, the Eagles should fend off relegation with relative ease so long as Zaha continues to find the back of the net.

Once Palace chalk up a couple of crucial six-point victories, spirits should lift and help them carve out enough of a run to beat the drop.

VERDICT: SAFE 

The return of star man Wilfried Zaha will be vital in the Eagles’ bid for Premier League survival

Wolves

The West Midlands club looked in serious danger of relegation ahead of the World Cup break in November. 

New boss Julen Lopetegui has done well to quell fears since his arrival, but his job is by no means over yet.

The 1-0 triumph against Tottenham on Saturday launched Wolves above Leicester and Nottingham Forest in the table, although they have played one more game than every relegation-threatened side excluding Everton.

Wolves also only play three teams below them between now and the end of the season, with crucial clashes against Leeds, Forest and Everton – as well as Crystal Palace – to come.

Next weekend’s huge home meeting with Leeds later this month could decide the direction of their season. Win, and they could be a victory away from joining the comforts of mid-table. Lose, and the gap they’ve worked so hard to fashion on those below them will evapourate.

Based purely on the talent of their squad alone, Wolves have no doubt underachieved this season with the likes of Ruben Neves, Matheus Nunes and Pedro Neto at their disposal. Their firepower in midfield in particular is surely enough to dominate matches down the stretch, even if their strikers are struggling for goals.

The shrewd additions of Craig Dawson, Pablo Sarabia, Mario Lemina and Matheus Cunha in January should play a major part in keeping them afloat, but Lopetegui will need to confirm their safety ahead of a trip to the Emirates on the final day.

VERDICT: SAFE 

Wolves picked up a monumental win against Champions League chasers Tottenham last week

Nottingham Forest

If anyone knows what it’s like to survive teetering on the edge of a cliff, it’s Steve Cooper.

The Nottingham Forest boss was on the brink of the sack before the Premier League paused for the World Cup but was given a vote of confidence by the City Ground chiefs. No doubt the board will be pleased with the results.

Sitting 14th in the league, Forest have given themselves some much-needed breathing space outside the relegation zone – a section of the Premier League table they’ve resided in for much of this season.

However, Cooper is wise enough to know that the job is far from complete. With five of the conventional big six still to face, opportunities to pick up points will be few and far between.

Having prospered at home this season, unbeaten in their last nine matches at the City Ground, Forest will likely need to pick up all three points when they host Wolves and Southampton later this year.

Their only other six-pointers come against Leeds and Crystal Palace away from home, with a trip to Selhurst Park on the final day of the season.

Brennan Johnson has been immeasurably important to Cooper this campaign, reliably contributing goals and assists since the turn of the year, while Chris Wood has also looked a smart addition since his move in January, giving Forest much-needed physicality up front.

While still in a precarious position, Forest should just have enough to beat the drop, even if they slip further down the table before the end of the season.

VERDICT: SAFE 

Steve Cooper was on the brink of the sack in November but has turned things around at Forest

Leicester

James Maddison angrily took to Twitter on Tuesday to hit back at the media’s criticism of Leicester last weekend, urging that his side weren’t as bad as reports might suggest against Southampton.

The fact of the matter is, the Foxes are now just two points above the relegation zone following their miserable 1-0 defeat at St Mary’s and have to be viewed as genuine relegation candidates. Any shred of complacency could be disastrous.

Brendan Rodger’s side isn’t too dissimilar to the one he marshalled into the Europa League in 2020-21, with Maddison, Harvey Barnes, Kelechi Iheanacho and Youri Tielemans all playing major roles during the impressive campaign.

There’s no doubt Leicester have the quality to fend off relegation but things just haven’t been clicking at the King Power this season, with several players injured and others pondering moves away from the club this summer.

Struggling to deal with Jamie Vardy’s significant drop-off in terms of goal contributions, Maddison’s fitness will play a major part in their fight for survival, with the England international the most adept at creating and finishing off big chances.

Fortunately for Leicester, seven of their remaining 13 fixtures will be played at the King Power, with crucial home clashes against Bournemouth, Wolves, Everton and West Ham to come.

The Foxes also have a couple of six-pointers away from home before the end of the season, facing both Crystal Palace and Leeds in April.

Despite their disappointing season, Leicester should have enough big matches at the King Power to avoid relegation. What they look like next season, with Maddison and Tielemans very likely to leave this summer, remains to be seen.

VERDICT: SAFE

James Maddison’s creative spark should be enough to marshal Leicester clear of relegation 

West Ham

If West Ham’s triumphant 4-0 win against Forest last week was hoped to steady the ship, their 4-0 thumping at the Amex has punctured a gaping hole in the keel. It’s been one step forward, two steps back for the Hammers all season.

David Moyes’ West Ham side has been thought of as a defensively robust outfit in recent campaigns, adept at frustrating their opposition before landing the killer blow, but it’s been a sorry season at the London Stadium this term.

Their defensive capitulation against Brighton highlighted that all is not well at West Ham, and with a tricky run-in to come, the threat of relegation is as real as it has been all season.

Teetering a point above the drop zone in 16th, Moyes must find a way to churn out results, even with Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United to come.

West Ham’s final two fixtures of the season are against Leicester and Leeds, the two sides they are currently sandwiched between in the table, but the manager will hope to get the job done before the crucial final weeks.

Moyes will no doubt be eyeing up his clashes against Southampton, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace in April, with the former fixture set to be played at the London Stadium.

Despite suffering their 4-0 hammering on the south coast, the Irons still hold the second-best defensive record among those in the bottom six, with only Palace conceding fewer goals.

What will worry West Ham fans is that their side still have the Europa Conference League to contend with between now and the end of the season, facing AEK Larnaca in the last-16, and already 2-0 up on aggregate, as one of the favourites to win the competition.

If West Ham can channel the exceptional form they’ve shown in Europe into Premier League performances, results will come. But they ought to get a move on.

VERDICT: SAFE

Playing in the Europa Conference League every Thursday could have an impact on West Ham

Leeds

Given the historic rivalry shared between the teams, losing against Chelsea is never acceptable to Leeds.

But it’s fair to say in other seasons, Leeds would have been less frustrated at the prospect of losing three points against the Blues. 

Considering the Chelsea’s woeful run of form at the time – which saw them drop points to Southampton, West Ham and Nottingham Forest – Javi Gracia’s side likely left Elland Road feeling it was a missed opportunity. 

Since the Spaniard’s arrival, Leeds seem to have found more of a balance between attack and defence. His side have only conceded two goals in three league games, which is a remarkable improvement considering they let in 38 goals in 22 matches without him.

Rodrigo, who began the season in excellent goal-scoring form, will be crucial to Leeds’ survival bid when he returns from injury in April. Until then, one of Wilfried Gnonto, Georginio Rutter and Sam Greenwood needs to step up to the plate.

Only six of Leeds’ 22 points have come away from home this season, which shows just how important the thunderous atmosphere at Elland Road will be in keeping the Yorkshire club afloat.

Although Leeds still have to host Liverpool, Brighton, Newcastle and Tottenham, Gracia’s side also face off against Forest, Palace and Leicester in their historic stadium between now and the end of the season. 

Two wins in those three matches could well be enough to keep them up, especially with trips to Molineux (Wolves), the Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth) and the London Stadium (West Ham) to come.

With three of the bottom nine to face in their next five fixtures, Leeds have the perfect opportunity to carve out some much needed wiggle room ahead of the drop. They should have just about enough in the tank, but if they do end up slipping into the relegation zone in mid-April, expect them to stay there.

VERDICT: SAFE 

Javi Gracia has fought to make Leeds more defensively solid since his arrival at Elland Road

Everton

When Sean Dyche first stepped into the role at Goodison Park, spirits were high. The ex-Burnley boss came in with Premier League experience and had a knack of getting teams in shape quickly.

Announcing himself to Toffees fans with a 1-0 win over Arsenal, it looked as though Everton would kick on and leave the threat of relegation behind as a distant memory. But they lack, without doubt, the most important thing in football. Goals.

The 2-2 draw at Nottingham Forest last weekend was the first time Everton had scored twice in a league match since October. And unlike most teams around them, they have no player they can rely on for goals.

West Ham have Danny Ings, even Jarrod Bowen if he rediscovers his goal-scoring touch. Palace have Zaha, Forest have Johnson. 

Even if Dyche is able to shut up shop against the top sides, with Man United, Newcastle, Man City and Tottenham still to play, who is going to find the net at the other end?

What’s more, Everton have already played an extra fixture and only have 12 matches left to rescue themselves from the drop. The Toffees are already starting the race for survival behind the competition.

Dyche’s defensive record speaks for itself, so all it takes is one man to step up and carve out a fruitful goal-scoring run at Goodison. But right now, it seems Everton don’t have a player like Richarlison in attack to help them evade the drop. 

VERDICT: RELEGATED

Time could well be running out for Sean Dyche’s Everton, who have a tricky run-in this season

Southampton

Saturday’s triumphant win against Leicester was worth far more than just three points. It rekindled belief that a great escape is possible, after a torrid week of disappointment at St Mary’s.

Losing to Leeds and then crashing out of the FA Cup to Grimsby Town undid all the hard work Ruben Selles had put in to resurrect a feeling of positivity on the south coast, after Saints shocked Chelsea with a 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge.

Selles seems to have found a formula to win matches. Take the lead early and battle hard for a clean sheet, as they did against both Chelsea and Leicester. Southampton struggled to hold on to their leads earlier in the season, but the new coach has addressed this issue.

However, both Chelsea and Leicester missed a catalogue of big chances against the Saints, and it’s hard to shake the feeling that clean sheets will be very hard to come by against more potent opposition.

From their 13 matches left, Saints still have to play every team inside the top nine, finishing off with Fulham, Brighton and Liverpool in their last three games.

Southampton’s triumphant win over Leicester will inspire hope of a great escape at St Mary’s

It doesn’t get much easier in the short-term either, with Manchester United, Brentford and Tottenham in their next three outings.

Southampton are far more likely to survive after the appointment of Selles and the team’s cohesion seems to have improved tenfold, but it may be a little too late to pull off a great escape. 

VERDICT: RELEGATED 

Bournemouth

As Reiss Nelson fired home Arsenal’s last-gasp winner at the Emirates, most fans were instantly drawn to the impact it would have on the title race. Few considered how desperate Bournemouth were for that valuable point.

Defensive frailties have been the overriding problem at the Vitality Stadium this season, and without major improvements in solidity at the back, the Cherries are almost destined to go down.

Gary O’Neil will need to start picking up points soon or Bournemouth’s fate will be unavoidable

There is still hope for Bournemouth, with Leicester, West Ham, Southampton, Leeds, Crystal Palace and Everton still to play, although most of those fixtures come away from home.

Gary O’Neil’s side must host Liverpool, Fulham, Brighton, Chelsea and Manchester United before the end of the season and their track record against big sides does not tend to bear fruit.

Now bottom of league off back-to-back defeats against Man City and Arsenal, Bournemouth have failed to beat any of the Premier League’s big six so far this campaign. 

They could be on for a repeat of the 9-0 humiliation they suffered against Liverpool at the start of the season, considering Jurgen Klopp’s side just dismantled their arch rivals 7-0.

No side is out of the relegation fight, but it seems Bournemouth have the weakest depth in the division and have a glut of tricky home fixtures. By that logic, it seems like a journey back to the Championship is most likely for the Cherries.

VERDICT: RELEGATED