What we learned from the NBA play-in games so far
The play-in could have caused a couple of rebuilds already and there’s still a round left to be played.
The Warriors didn’t make it past the play-in and Klay Thompson’s contract is ending. Is the run of their Big Three over for good?
Marilyn Dubinski: It’s quite possible. Steve Kerr said they’re going to do everything they can to retain him, but my gut says he’s going to demand more than they’re willing to pay, and some middling team somewhere looking for a big name will come and snag him. Even if he does return, I’ve seen people comparing them to the Spurs dynasty, and how they’ve had their 1999-2007 run and could still retool and for a 2014-like run for a fifth championship. I’m not so sure about that. I believe 2022 was their 2014 as it came post-Kevin Durant with Andrew Wiggins ever so briefly playing to his his true potential and Jordan Poole looking like the future. Those factors are gone, so I don’t think they have another championship run in them; the West is too good now.
Mark Barrington: Steph Curry is still a superstar, but the other two are no longer able to carry their share of the load, and Uno Amigo isn’t enough to take over the franchise of Tres Amigos. The real end of the dynasty might have been a couple of years ago when they made a major misstep by trying to make Jordan Poole the guy, and the franchise is in the weird place that the Spurs were after Kawhi left and there was still some older talented players, but not enough to compete in a tough conference, and not enough young developing players to build on going forward. They are going to have to trigger a full rebuild, and that probably means trading Curry for future picks. I don’t know if their front office has the guts to do that, because the fans will revolt.
Bruno Passos: As we saw with people trying to prematurely call it with the Spurs’ demise, it’s always prudent to err on the safe side. That said, this run feels about done, at least how we’ve known it. Curry’s probably dropped a half a tier as a force unto himself, Thompson is more of a quality role player, and Green’s star-level impact wanes with the pieces around him and it sounds like even people around the organization are finally over his antics. Their cracks at a Kawhi-type second wind was probably with their high picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts and, well, tough chips, y’all chose poorly.
Jesus Gomez: They need to retain Thompson because he’s a franchise icon, but even if they somehow turn things around and become contenders again, their old core won’t be the engine behind it. Curry is still fantastic but not the mythological figure he once was. Draymond Green is harder to hide on offense now. And Klay would have to have one of the most impressive comebacks in NBA history to become a star again. It’s just hard to see the Warriors becoming a force again soon.
The Hawks are out of the playoffs and a change in direction seems inevitable. Do you expect them to trade Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, or both? And should the Spurs be interested?
Dubinski: I expect them to make a change, and Young has been the one more rumored to be traded than Murray (although I’m not sure when Murray has shown at any point in his career that he can be the guy on a winning team). I’m not one of those Spurs fans on the anti-trade (or anti-Trae) train, and the Spurs wouldn’t be doing their due diligence if they didn’t at least inquire or listen to the Hawks’ inquiries. That being said, if the demand is too high, the Spurs should say “thanks, but no thanks” and move on, which they are disciplined enough to do.
Barrington: There’s no doubt in my mind that the Hawks will be looking to deal one or both of their two superstars. Of the two, I think that Dejounte is the better fit for the current Spurs, not as a central piece, but as a third or fourth option on offense and a solid stopper on defense. It could happen if he can accept that role and the Spurs could get him for a reasonable amount of assets, let’s say one future first, some second rounders, and Devonte’ Graham to help to balance the salary. There’s still a big disparity in salary, but the Spurs might have enough cap room to absorb it. Having thrown that proposal into the universe, I doubt that the Hawks would take it, mostly because there should be better offers on the table.
Passos: The Hawks would be silly to keep that duo together. They don’t fit, they’re too expensive for what they’re giving them, and Jalen Johnson’s rise gives them a perfect excuse for pivoting and refocusing their identity. I think we can absolutely expect to shop one or both, and as usual it’ll come down to how inflated their asking price is. Of the two, I’m more intrigued by a Young fit in San Antonio, mostly because I think spacing around Wemby should be near the top of the offseason to-do lists, but I also wouldn’t sign up for an overpay.
Gomez: The only reason I doubt the Hawks will trade both is that they don’t own their own picks, so bottoming out makes no sense for them. But it’s clear that the ceiling of this core is very limited, so one of the guards has to go. As for whether the Spurs should be interested, sure. Either would represent a big upgrade. The question is how much the Hawks will ask for them. San Antonio is not one piece away from contention, so spending a lot of valuable assets to get one non-superstar doesn’t make a lot of sense.
What are your predictions for the last two play-in games? (Kings vs. Pelicans, Bulls vs. Heat)
Dubinski: With Zion Williamson out, I’d have to lean towards the Kings. They just have more offensive firepower at this point, and there’s something about this Pelicans squad that fails to show up in big games, and this will be no different. The Heat will be missing Jimmy Butler, but the Bulls are also a wildcard, so I have no idea what will happen there. (I have to say, while I’m not much of a believer in karma, this should be a reality check for Butler. He has openly bragged about not taking the regular season seriously and only turning it on for the postseason. Not only is that a disservice to his teammates and Heat fans, but guess what? Had he taken the regular season more seriously, they wouldn’t be in the play-in, and he wouldn’t be hurt. *Shrug emoji*.)
Barrington: I think the Kings will easily dispose of the Zion-less Pelicans. Sabonis will feast in the paint. I think the Bulls defeat the Heat, although having that game in Miami is an advantage for Spoelstra and his guys. DeMar DeRozan should be able to carve up Coach Spo’s funky assortment of weird zones, and with Jimmy Butler not 100%, they won’t be able to eke out a win with their anemic offense.
Passos: Zion’s injury (huge, mega bummer) changed everything for the Pelicans’ run, but I may go against the grain and throw them one last lifeline. I imagine we’ll see at least one of Brandon Ingram or CJ McCollum leave their stinker behind them, and playing in New Orleans never hurts. The Heat, even without Jimmy Butler, are not the lowly Hawks and I think they have enough Pat Riley blood magic to eke out another postseason berth. 14 points for Patty Mills in a Miami win.
Gomez: The Pelicans without Zion will likely lose. At least that’s the hope. The Kings could make the series with the Thunder a lot more interesting. As for the East, whoever advances is probably getting swept by the Celtics, but I can see the Bulls taking down the Butler-less Heat. DeMar DeRozan should be able to feast on offense and the Heat don’t seem to have the firepower on offense to compete.
