What a Knicks expert expects against the Spurs in the NBA Finals

After so many years off, I can’t believe we are getting round four of my all-time favorite series: Fraternizing with the Enemy, where I discuss happenings with a writer from the enemy other team. We’ve had three great series through the first three rounds of the playoffs, and now, not only have we reached the pinnacle know as the NBA Finals, but we’ve come full circle with a rematch with the Spurs’ first ever Finals opponent from 1999: the New York Knicks. There’s no one better to get down to brass taxes with than Russell Richardson: editor-in-chief of SB Nation’s Knicks blog, Posting and Toasting.

J.R.

I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling strong 20th century vibes right now. As if I want to party like it’s 1999, or at least watch basketball like it. Twenty-seven years have passed since the Knicks and Spurs met in the playoffs and here we are in the year that the NBA Finals validates the in-season NBA Cup Tournament. 

Ever since San Antonio eliminated Minnesota in the second round, I’ve been saying that New York scared me more than OKC. But during games 1, 2 & 7 against the Thunder, I was more tense than I’ve been for any game in over twenty years, so I don’t know that stack-ranking teams by induced fear will accomplish much. Before the OKC series, people were saying how much both teams had developed since they last played, but the Knicks have undergone at least the same kind of improvement since SA and NY have met. Which makes me wonder, with all of these changes on both sides, how long a series do you expect?

R.R.

Pleased to meet you finally, J.R. I have three tickets to see Wilco this month, so when a message arrived from Wilco, I assumed Jeff Tweedy was checking on my choices for the setlist.

Funny story: My reason for picking the Knicks to win in five games is not rooted in basketball logic. A few months ago, my wife and sister-in-law asked about attending a Wilco show at Beak and Skiff (an excellent venue). With a date of June 16, a potential Knicks conflict didn’t register. Why? Because it’s been decades since the Knicks last played in June, and they weren’t exactly living up to expectations this season. I bought tickets. Child care was arranged. Now, I’m in a pickle: either the Knicks wrap this up in five, or I’ll need to fake an injury so I can watch Game Six. What’s the marital equivalent of an SGA flop?

But if you pinned me down, I’d predict: Impossible Four, Unlikely Five . . . Knicks in Six.

Your memories of the 1999 Finals must be fonder than mine. For one, I was inebriated throughout the series, watching from a Belmar barstool while my soon-to-be (and eventually ex-) wife drowned me in whiskey. Suffice it to say, my recollection is blurry. For two, look at those box scores. Yikes! The Knicks scored 77 in Game One and 67 in Game Two. It’s crazy to remember that they averaged 86 points per game that season. Sure, that was nearly the lowest in the league, but the NBA was still a far cry from the point-paloozas of today. In 25 years, teams will average 150 and play exhibition games on Mars.

The current Spurs team has no trouble running up the scoreboard. And in the playoffs, they’ve looked more cohesive than the iteration New York beat in the NBA Cup. Even then, they were no pushovers; the Knicks had to rally in the fourth, winning the quarter 35–19. When the Thunder were favored in the WCF, I was skeptical. San Antonio proved me right. They’re truly the best in the West, and, truth be told, they’re a helluva lotta fun to watch.

I can’t wait for these two teams to lock horns. I’m here for any and all of your questions, although brilliant answers are not guaranteed (many brain cells died before this blogger sobered up). I’m curious to know what you think is different between the Spurs of this moment versus the team that NY beat in the Cup game. I have assumptions (a young team coming to understand each other’s rhythms and style after playing more games together, for instance) but you’ve watched them more than I.

J.R.

The changes the Spurs have undergone since the Knicks beat them on December 16 is a fun topic because some started soon after, and some have just been completed in overcoming Oklahoma City. 

The first transition was in the team’s approach on offense. Early in the season, the offense ran through Victor, and opponents were selling out to stop him at all costs. Sometimes this would work  (the early-season games against Phoenix are great examples) and San Antonio’s offense simply cratered. Even in the games they won, the Spurs would go through extremely long offensive droughts. This continued until the all star break after which Wemby suddenly showed that he’d learned that he didn’t have to be the center of the offense for the team to win. 

Suddenly, instead of calling for the ball while 20 feet from the basket, going on-on-one, and driving into loads of help defense and turning the ball over (which he’d done a lot of last season), he would set screens and roll while the defense stretched to keep him from the rim, which opened up all kinds of opportunities for the Spurs shooters and drivers to exploit. That’s the environment in which Wemby would then attack, and defenses have a hard time defending so many threats, and that explains the run they went on from February through the end of the season. 

Then the postseason came, which taught the coaching staff and the team to deal with situational threats that are rarely seen during the regular season. The OKC series was an advanced education in developing new offensive strategies on the fly, and if they hadn’t passed that test we wouldn’t be talking right now. 

So that’s what’s changed since we met. There was the final meeting of the year in that stretch, which New York won, and it’s apparent that the Knicks are a different beast from any of the previous Spurs opponents because of how they handled SA during the 20+ game stretch in which their only loss was to the Knickerbockers. Then as if that weren’t enough, they unlocked KAT’s point center module and started tearing through teams. San Antonio made it past the defending champs largely through size and physicality, but New York has shooting AND length. They have size at the wing that can dwarf the Spurs, and they’re on a win streak longer than the Thunder’s 8-0 run to start the playoffs. 

All that to say, I haven’t seen enough of the Knicks’ recent games to have anything close to a good foundation to make an educated guess from. So I have some questions that would help me get ready for the series; some about basketball, some about the fanbase, and some about you: Has point KAT been that big a deal? In other words, was placing the ball in his hands the move that facilitated the 9-0 win streak? How much point KAT have they been using?

R.R.

Indeed, like the Spurs, New York has improved since December — and not just by dumping Guerschon Yabusele. It took a while to get cooking, though.

“Wemby suddenly showed that he’d learned he didn’t have to be the center of the offense for the team to win.”

You could say the same about Jalen Brunson.

Throughout the season, many complained that Mike Brown should play Brunson off the ball more often, for multiple reasons. It saves his legs, and it diversifies the offense. But the Knicks kept drilling the same formula repeatedly.

Through two seasons, the Towns-Brunson pairing was never as successful as it could have been. Countless games started stale and didn’t improve until the reserves came in to mix up the lineup. Usually, KAT would flourish while Jalen rested in the second quarter, and he’d get some buckets in the third, letting Jalen take center stage in the fourth.

Here’s another gripe: For whatever reason (either by his choice or the coach’s) KAT doesn’t post up. It didn’t happen under Thibs, either, so you can draw your own conclusions. We came to accept it, but it drove some of the fanbase nuts.

Anyway, the first three games of the playoffs followed the same script they tried all season. And after falling behind 1-2 to the clearly less-talented Hawks (losing each game by one point), many fans wondered if our hopes had been too high.

Then, a change. Point-KAT was unleashed; the team started playing faster, exploiting more fast-break opportunities; the scoring load was shared across all five starters (plus one sharpshooting Shamet); and their defense has bordered on criminally abusive. They unlocked an unprecedented level of beautiful basketball during their 11-game winning streak — and their historic numbers back it up.

Some specific changes we’ve seen is Mikal Bridges bringing the ball up the court more often, and Hart taking off on a sprint if he’s hauled in a rebound. That means a good defender has to chase Jalen around away from the ball, while the other four starters go to work — and each can shoot or attack the rim.

Karl is an exceptional passer. As the hub, he can thread a pass to a cutter, zip it out to a corner (and from there it swings until an open shooter is found), rise up for a high-percentage shot, or put his shoulder down and drive to the cup.

So the Knicks unlocked basketball nirvana by relying less on Brunson as the primary ball handler, rocketing defensive rebounds down the court for fast-paced buckets, and letting KAT operate as a hub. Just as the Spurs learned to rely less on Wemby, the Knicks did the same with Jalen. And, lo and behold, both players became even more valuable to their teams.

A few Q’s for you. Where do you think the Spurs will most surprise the Knicks? What vulnerabilities worry you the most? (You mentioned size, but most of your key guys are 6’5” and up — and Wemby is a friggin’ tree.)

J.R.

When the NBA Cup final was over, who could have expected that both teams would be in the Finals because their centers started initiating their offense as 7-foot point guards? Well it’s happened. I know that KAT has spent far more time in that role, but Point Wemby made a significant contribution at the beginning of Game 7 in OKC and it helped the Spurs build their first lead. So I’m wondering how much of that we’ll see in the Finals, and I’m enjoying with anticipation the media losing their minds over a series in which centers are leading their teams in assists. With how much of a copycat league this is, it would be interesting to see how far the idea can go. 

As to how the Spurs will surprise the Knicks, I think it has to be with Dylan Harper. The rookie has played well all year, but there’s nothing about his play in the playoffs that looks the slightest bit like it’s his first season in the league. Of all the changes the Spurs have made since they’ve played NY, Harper’s emergence has to be the one that I think will have the biggest effect on the Finals because he’s like no one else at his age in ages, literally. When his numbers aren’t matching Magic Johnson’s rookie playoff stats, they’re setting rookie postseason records. If he hadn’t gotten an adductor injury during the WCF, there’s no way he’d be able to surprise anyone because I believe that it would have been a shorter series, and he’d have been one of the major Spurs stories heading into the Finals. Even with the 3-4 subpar games from Dylan as he recovered his health, you can make a strong case that San Antonio doesn’t eliminate OKC without him. 

On the vulnerabilities front, it’s all about New York’s size for me. You’re right that the Spurs have big guards, but their forwards are undersized against most teams in the league. Against Anunoby and Robinson, they’re almost tiny. Also, San Antonio likes to guard opposing centers with a guard or a wing, so that Wemby can roam the paint and play Gandalf. (You shall not pass!) If they do that in the Finals then that’s another matchup the Spurs are small in, which could create rebounding problems and a bevy of other issues, crossmatching, etc. 

Ok, my questions for you: Who did you want to advance between the Thunder and the Spurs and why? And are you concerned about one of the consistent issues over the past few postseasons: rest-induced rust for the team that ended its series early?

R.R.

Cooper Flagg deserves his flowers, but Harper deserved more votes for Rookie of the Year. His skills and poise in the biggest moments have impressed us at P&T. Wemby, Castle, and Harper: three excellent drafts for you, my friend!

Upon examining the strengths and weaknesses of both Western Conference finalists, I argued that the Knicks should want to face the Spurs. Not the greatest take, in hindsight. I assumed that San Antonio’s youth and mounting fatigue after a grueling three rounds would make them less formidable than the defending champion Thunder. Furthermore, many of these young Spurs had never played so many games without a break, counting both the regular season and the postseason. After watching them lay out OKC on the road in a closeout game, I should probably surrender my sportswriting license.

Now I’m a little worried that the Knicks have had too much time off. It wouldn’t astonish me if New York loses Game One. They’ve played just eight games in the past month, and while that absolutely keeps them fresh, allows for injury recovery, etc., I wonder how they can maintain their game conditioning. Playing 40+ minutes of NBA basketball is different from 40 minutes on a stationary bike. You’ll recall that they were pretty rusty early in Game One against Cleveland after nine days’ rest. They fell behind by 22 points before their amazing, miraculous, one-for-the-ages comeback to win in overtime.

Excuse me while watch that fourth quarter and overtime again.

Phew, I’m back. Needed a shower after that. . . . Yeah, so, this break between Game Seven and the Finals might actually be the perfect length for San Antonio — long enough to get healthy and prepare for its opponent, short enough not to lose momentum — while eight days off might not be ideal for New York.

Question for you: Has there been any word on De’Aaron Fox’s high-ankle sprain? He seemed really limited in the Thunder series, but I’d imagine he’s getting better all the time (forgive the obligatory Beatles reference). How do you feel when Castle plays lead guard? I recall he had an 11-assist, 11-turnover double-double in Game One of the WCF.

J.R.

Your request for an Official Sportswriting License from the Guild of Legitimate Sportswriters was approved? Lucky! I guess I shouldn’t wonder; you live in New York state after all. Must be nice to cover the largest media market in the hemisphere. Meanwhile, we small market folk have to make do with the sportswriting licenses we find at the bottoms of a cereal boxes. But that didn’t stop me from getting mine laminated and displaying it proudly in my home office workstation right next to my typewriter, my dogeared copy of the AP Stylebook, and my horn-rimmed glasses with the old prescription that I only use to focus the sun to burn ants after the Spurs lose. 

As for the Knicks’ Game 1 comeback win, there is no shame in re-re-watching those recaps, particularly when you have so much time to wait before your team can generate new highlight reels. I’m only a couple days removed from Game 7, and I found myself going down the rabbit hole of one video after another and had to tear myself away when you messaged me to say it was my turn to write. That said, isn’t it interesting that both the Knicks and the Spurs had to endure overtime in the first game of their conference final series? Makes me wonder what other kinds of similarities there are to be uncovered over the next two and a half weeks.

In order to answer your question about any news concerning the condition of Fox’s ankle, I need to introduce you to the Spurs media landscape. This isn’t like the Big Apple where the media is strong enough to get a coach fired if they don’t get complete enough answers to their questions. In San Antonio, the tenure of the head coach doesn’t rely on anything except the good will of the owner, and that good will has essentially been granted to Gregg Popovich for life. (In case you don’t know, Popovich is still the president of basketball operations which means that he is the one in charge of hiring the general manager. In other words, Pop named his successor.) In this environment, we find out about the news concerning injuries at the same time that everyone else does: an hour and 15 minutes before tip off. So, no, there’s no additional word outside of our own speculation surrounding what kind of advanced treatment he’s receiving. (No need to apologize for Beatles references. I love the Fab Four.)

My feelings about Castle are not particularly complicated. First and second-year players aren’t known for being able to avoid turnovers, and Stephon is no exception. His exceptional qualities are so many and varied that I happily classify the turnovers as the price for entry. I remember hearing Steve Kerr, at the beginning of the Golden State dynasty, discuss the Warriors’ turnovers in terms that I’d never heard a coach use before. He said something to the effect that the team was at its best when the ball moved, and he would prefer that his players made mistakes while passing for advantage, as opposed to mistakes of passing omission. It sounded revolutionary at the time because Pop always considered turnovers an existential threat. Castle turns it over less frequently when Fox is out there to calm things down. The problem at the beginning of the Thunder series was Fox‘s absence, which hopefully won’t happen again. 

For my next queries, I have to go back to the All-Star game for the set up. Wemby and KAT played together and Victor got quite upset about more than one of Towns’ … defensive choices. Much seemed to be made about Wemby’s body language with people interpreting it as him blaming KAT for the loss. This also seemed to play into a reputation for a certain lack of focus on defense in high leverage moments. 

So my questions are: is this reputation earned, what forms do his miscues take, and are you concerned about how he’ll handle the kind of complex and fluid defensive schemes that success in the Finals requires?

R.R.

Ah, yes, I heard tales of sportswriters sharing malteds with Gregg Popovich on a bench outside the Alamodome while watching tumbleweeds roll by. Meanwhile, in the metropolis, writers interviewed players in the Champagne Room at Scores (allegedly). Alas, everyone’s too brand-conscious for such extracurricular hijinks these days, or at least they don’t invite me along for the fun.

True confession: I loved Pop as a coach. He was a gruff, fundamentals-focused skipper like Thibs, who deserves credit for laying the foundation that made this Finals appearance possible. Pop always seemed both perfectly suited to San Antonio and an odd fit. He got far more rope than he would have in New York thanks to the small market and his winning track record, yet he was also outspoken, unconcerned about offending the season-ticket-holder base. We saw one aspect of the man in front of the camera. The fact that former players like Tim Duncan are helping him recover from his stroke speaks volumes about his character (and theirs).

On the subject of injuries, the Knicks are notoriously tight-lipped as well. We may never know how Mitchell Robinson broke his finger. If Leon Rose & Co. hadn’t done such a tremendous job building the roster, they’d be pilloried for their silence. I believe Leon has sat for one interview in six years as president of basketball operations. Try getting away with that in any other city, or any other profession.

In my Game Two preview of the Eastern Conference Finals, I wrote something like, “Lord Silver must be smiling.” Early on, both conference finals looked destined to be epic when each began with an overtime thriller. Then the Cavs folded like laundry. While we were ecstatic that New York steamrolled the next three games, there wasn’t much drama to it.

The Finals should be a helluva show. I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams rip off a 15-point run every game, but a blowout either way feels unlikely–if the teams take turns, winning one, losing one, etc. My family and I live about three hours from the city, though my son in Brooklyn insists we’d be safer farther away during the Finals—maybe bunkered in an Airbnb in Buffalo. If the Knicks win, the fans might steal the Statue of Liberty. If they lose, City Hall could burn to the ground.

Regarding Castle’s turnovers: I’m too lazy to look it up, but Mike Brown recently explained why some turnovers are better than others. His logic shared the spirit of your Steve Kerr reference. Still, 11 giveaways is an Ooof. I hope Stephon will be as generous to the Knicks. You’re right, though; with Fox back, Castle will have fewer opportunities to cough up the rock.

Here’s the thing about Towns. Knicks fans have pulled out copious amounts of hair over two types of fouls: Karl’s occasional brain-fart foul and, worse, his hook-on-the-drive foul. His teammates didn’t care for them, either. You could see the blood drain from their faces when he hooked his way into another offensive infraction and then argued that he was the victim.

During this 11-game winning streak, however, Karl has played with discipline. We pray it continues. If he gets into foul trouble early against the Spurs, though, New York will be in trouble. Why? Mitch hasn’t exactly wowed us this postseason and has claimed to be dealing with mental health issues. Add a broken finger and he’s a real wildcard. Ariel Hukporti is the team’s third-string center. If you haven’t heard of him, there’s a reason for that.

Cleveland’s size neutralized Point-KAT early on in the conference finals. New York still won the battle in the paint, however, and pushed the pace to great effect. This series will be different, of course. We expect that Mitch Johnson will strategize to limit KAT, points in the paint will be hard won, and the Spurs will have springier legs than the Cavs, but we’re also sure that Mike Brown knows all this and will plan accordingly. The Knicks have so many offensive weapons, a stifled KAT just means that one of the other guys gets to eat.

I’m curious what similarities, and differences, you’ve seen between Johnson and Pop. And finally, what’s your pick for the series? Who wins, and in how many games?

J.R. 

The best description I have of Mitch Johnson is that he’s a updated version of Pop. There are so many similarities between them that it’s easier to describe the differences. Pop was famously against ever giving another team points. He lost a number of games over the years because he wouldn’t foul when up three, which allows the opponent to tie with a three and win in overtime. Johnson has ended my agony by handling end game strategy more to my liking. Also, San Antonio’s defense is far more modern than it was toward the end of Pop’s tenure. 

Before I make a prediction, I have to address the Jose Alvarado situation: SA’s coaches better have the guys trained up on his gambits so he can’t create extra possessions with his wonderful sneakiness. Also, there’s the fact that we haven’t yet discussed the player who’s guaranteed the championship ring this year, Jeremy Sochan. Just putting this here for the moment, so we remember to chop it up before the series is over. 

Now to the series: I like the Spurs in 6 (yes, even on the road at MSG), but I could see them winning in 7 or 5 depending how things break. First, they have the rust/rest early advantage. Second, I don’t think the Knicks have had to face the same quality of opponents that the Spurs have had to overcome and the adjustment to the level of play might be worth something in this series. Third, if San Antonio can keep Wemby off KAT and near the basket, then his ability to lock down the paint throws a major wrench into New York’s offense. 

So there you have it; I hate making predictions and you got one out of me. Anyway, here’s to an entertaining series opener, and I’ll see you on the other side!