Upcoming slate of NFL games scheduled for brutal forecasts

Six games scheduled for Christmas Eve have wind chills forecasted in the single digits or worse.

It will feel like a balmy seven degrees in Baltimore compared to the brutal negative 11 degrees it will feel like when Buffalo plays in Chicago. The Bills can’t catch
a break.

Four of the road teams play their home games in domes — the Saints, Texans, Falcons, and Raiders — and will face questions heading into the week about their aptitude in cold weather. That’s a futile debate, however. Several players on those teams have been in cold weather games before in college or in other stops at the NFL level.

In brutally cold conditions such as these, a strong running game is vital. Footballs don’t travel as far in cold weather which makes passing offenses less successful.

Per data from Pro Football Focus from 2017, QBs in games with below-freezing temperatures saw their completion percentage decline by 3.1 percentage points compared to normal conditions, which are defined as temperatures above 50 degrees.

The drop in production doesn’t hit running backs, as the same analysis shows that in below-freezing temperatures running backs average 0.26 yards per carry more than average.

Of the 12 teams scheduled to play in cold weather this weekend, five rank in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing offense. The Bills and Bears, and the Falcons and Ravens meet each other and will put their strong rushing offenses to the test. The Browns also rank in the top 10. 

The Raiders are outside the top 10 in rushing offense but have the league’s leading rusher, Josh Jacobs. He has 291 carries for 1,495 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Five of the 12 teams are among the top 10 in stopping the run: the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and Titans.

The Seahawks, Saints, and Texans are the most vulnerable teams. Not only do they have middling rushing offenses, but they all have bad rush defenses. 

The Chiefs’ backfield, led by Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon, has been strong over the past month and will face a Seattle defense that ranks 31st against the run. Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns is one of the league’s best running backs and faces a Saints defense that ranks 23rd and allows 4.6 yards per carry.

Derrick Henry is first in rushing attempts and tied with Chubb for most rushing touchdowns. The Titans face a Texans defense that ranks last against the run.

As bad as the forecast is expected to be this Saturday at various NFL stadiums, most have the proper wardrobe to withstand the conditions. Only a few need to guard against frostbite.