Three NFL player prop futures that look like solid bets
The NFL betting options available to us on sportsbooks like DraftKings are nearly endless as we await the start of the season on September 8.
If you like projecting out full season totals, the futures market is for you. You can bet on individual players reaching certain totals like yards, touchdowns, receptions and so on. Today, we’ve found three player props that stick out for our futures bets.
Derek Carr over 4450.5 passing yards (-110 DK)
While Derek Carr’s 2021 season likely wasn’t his best statistically, it was the highest yardage total of his career. He had some inefficiencies here, his QB rating was the lowest since 2018, and his 14 interceptions were the most of his career.
Still, what we’re looking for in this market is volume, and that is something Carr sure has. The 626 attempts he threw last year in 17 games was the most in his career, and over 100 more than either of his two previous seasons.
He finished his eighth NFL season with 4,804 passing yards, which is much higher than the total set here. There is some risk in taking overs in the futures market, with injuries a part of the game. However, Carr and this offense figure to remain a high-functioning passing offense in 2022.
Newcomer Davante Adams joins a pass-catching group that includes Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. These players need the ball, and Carr is sure to play point guard for much of the season. While this past season was the only one Carr has exceeded this total, we like him to do it again with the weapons at his disposal.
Trey Lance over 5.5 rushing touchdowns (-120 DK)
In case you missed it, Lance is the starting quarterback for San Francisco moving forward. Lance brings a dual-threat ability to the table as the Niners’ new QB, and we’re targeting that aspect of his game with this rushing touchdowns total.
In the six games Lance appeared, he ran the ball 38 times, scoring once. In his lone season as a starter at North Dakota State, Lance rushed for 14 touchdowns, so it’s clear the ability is there.
Our projection of Lance going for six or more touchdowns with his legs revolves around Jalen Hurts. While Lance’s draft positioning suggests his ceiling is much higher as a quarterback, Lance will be that young QB making his debut as a full-time starter. In a similar role last season, Hurts tucked it and ran plenty, finding the end zone ten times with his legs.
Our hope is for a similar outcome. Lance can get here both with his scrambling abilities and designed runs sure to be implemented in the offense.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 5.5 rushing touchdowns (-135 DK)
We’ll wrap our futures looks with an under selection targeting Chiefs third-year running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Reports out of Kansas City camp suggest that CEH is in a competition with seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco for a role on the first-team offense. The two have been splitting duties there, and with other running backs on the roster in Jerick McKinnon and Ronald Jones, Edwards-Helaire’s role is anything but safe.
The young running back has had an issue staying on the field, missing 10 games through his first two seasons. He has finished with four touchdowns on the ground in each of these seasons, and with a lighter workload, it’s hard to see that number increasing.
We’re fading CEH in this spot, and if you’re prepping for your fantasy drafts, we recommend staying away from the former first-round pick there as well.
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