The Spurs’ regular season struggles vs. the Knicks are irrelevant in the Finals
The Spurs struggled against the Knicks in the regular season. Should New York be considered the favorite because of those matchups?
Marilyn Dubinski: While the Spurs’ loss in New York was their lone blemish of February, if we’ve learned anything in these playoffs, it’s to disregard the regular season. The Cup Final came with Wemby still coming off the bench (and admittedly not focused since he had lost his grandmother), and the Spurs won their home game (albeit behind a franchise record 11 threes from Julian Champagnie). All those games were outliers in their own ways, and both teams have come a long way since then. It’s also hard to know what exactly to think of the Knicks right now because of how quickly they went from disappointing to close the regular season to flying through an easy first three rounds in part due to upsets on the other side of the East bracket. I think it will be a very tight match-up, but homecourt advantage will be the difference for the Spurs.
Mark Barrington: No, because both teams have gotten a lot better since then. It’s hard to know how good the Knicks are right now, since they’ve been lapping the field in the kiddie pool that is the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Can Landry Shamet continue to look like a bigger, stronger Steph Curry? [I think his shooting returns to Earth in this series, although he will continue to be a key player for them.]
Is Jalen Brunson going to be able to create enough space with his compact structure and elite body control? [I think that Victor’s length will bother him in the paint.]
Will KAT avoid taking 4 or 5 dumb fouls per game? [As if. KAT gotta KAT.]
Is Josh Hart the ultimate glue guy? [Yes.]
Will Mitch Robinson even play, and if he does, can he hit a free throw? [Jeremy Sochan is teaching him the one-handed free-throw technique as we speak.]
The deal is that the Knicks aren’t a known quantity at this point. They’ve had an incredible run so far, but they’ve hardly been tested. They’ve beaten the teams in front of them, and handily. I feel like it’s a pretty even matchup at this point.
Devon Birdsong: The favorite? No, I don’t really think so. Cleveland may have been the team least suited to giving them trouble in the East, and the East is still pretty visibly the weaker conference to begin with. I’m honestly not sure the Knicks would even be here if the Sixers hadn’t summoned the inexplicable magic that put them over the Celtics. I see these teams as being remarkably even, and with a cleaner bill of health than previous matchups, I think you have to take this whole series as a start from scratch. Unlike the Thunder, the Knicks did get at least one real challenge in their opening series against the Hawks, but I still think the Spurs are going to benefit from having had to overcome so much in practically every series. If I were looking at this from an outside perspective, I’d be inclined to agree with Vegas, and slightly favor the Spurs, actually.
Jeje Gomez: Regular season wins and losses don’t matter as much to me when it comes to the playoffs as how the matchup actually went. And considering that, I don’t think the Knicks should be the favorites, but they shouldn’t be underrated either. They do present significant matchup issues for Wembanyama and they have a bunch of wings who can potentially limit San Antonio’s driving game and punish overhelp with their shooting. It’s borderline impossible after the Western Conference Finals to think that there’s a better NBA team than the Spurs, but in terms of matchups, the Knicks are definitely dangerous.
What aspect of the game will determine who gets the ring?
Dubinski: I think it will be a combination of three-point shooting and how it’s defended. The biggest key for the Spurs will be to not leave shooters open to play help defense on Brunson. It worked fine against Minnesota because they were lacking in shooters and Ant wasn’t always looking to pass, but it almost burned them against OKC because Caruso and McCain got hot in stretches, hence why they adjusted back to “Stop everyone else and make SGA beat us”. The Knicks have SEVEN main rotation players who shot over 36% from three on three or more attempts during the regular season, so the Spurs can’t cede that shot. Trust Castle (or whoever is on Brunson), stay at home, and play man-to-man defense. Make them beat you one-on-one.
Barrington: The Knicks are a team that shoots a lot of three-point shots, and in the playoffs, they’ve been going down at a high rate. The Spurs’ defense relies on letting Wembanyama roam to erase the other team’s interior and mid-range shots, which sometimes means they allow opponents to get looks from range. This was effective against the Thunder because they didn’t have a lot of elite shooters. Everyone on the Knicks can shoot three pointers, except Mitchell Robinson, who might not even play. So the Spurs are going to have to keep defenders on the shooters against New York, and that could open driving lanes for Brunson. If the Knicks solve the Spurs’ defense, they will win the series, because the Spurs can’t win a shooting contest against these guys. Well, maybe Julian Champagnie can.
Birdsong: Shooting feels like the easy answer, since the Knicks lead the playoff field in 3pt%, FG%, EFG%, and TS%, but I think it might really come down to two specific match-ups, and one wild card: Anunoby defending Wemby, Castle defending Brunson, and the Karl Anthony Towns factor.
As was pointed out a few weeks ago on Twitter/X, among players who have guarded the Spurs star in at least 100 half-court matchups, Anunoby allows the fewest points per matchup. He has tremendous length and strength in spite of the height disadvantage, and Mike Brown and his staff had plenty of time to see how successful the Thunder were in denying Wemby position. Thankfully, Stephon Castle has had his share of success in giving Jalen Brunson fits when defending him (in 38 possessions where Castle was the primary defender, Brunson scored just 5 points while being held to 28.7% from the field), but there’s an added wrinkle to defending Brunson now that KAT has effectively taken on some serious distribution responsibilities in the postseason. You can’t just focus on Brunson to shut down New York’s ball movement. And this is why Towns is the wild-card of the series. Because of his passing chops (6 assists per game) and his long-distance shooting, he allows the Knicks to run two legitimate big men, and that shooting (almost 50% from three in the postseason) pulls Wemby away from the hoop as the only player with the height to contest it, which leaves the interior up for grabs, and Towns has the ability to hit the open man. I think a lot of this series will hinge on how/if the Spurs are able to defend that with other players. I wonder if we’re going to end up seeing a lot of French Vanilla.
Gomez: Since the shooting has already been mentioned, I’ll go with turnovers and pace. The Knicks play slow and don’t cough the ball up. They have Brunson, who can normally get a good shot whenever he wants in the half-court and a solid, switchy defense. If they dictate how the game is played, the Spurs could be in trouble. If San Antonio can create some turnovers and push the pace, they’ll be in great shape.
Prediction time: Who will win the championship, and how do you think the series will go?
Dubinski: Spurs in 7. I think this will be just as difficult as the last round, perhaps slightly more so based on the match-up. There will be times when one team is hot and the other isn’t, but I believe in the Spurs’ grit, determination, willpower, and ability to make adjustments. (Also, I want them to win at home but don’t think it will be in Game 5. Also, also, I have submitted to the power of the Corgi, so I must trust him.)
Barrington: Spurs in 6. Both teams hold home court until Game 6, when the Spurs take the title in MSG, breaking the hearts of the home fans. June 16, mark your calendars!
Victor Wembanyama is Finals MVP, to no one’s surprise. It’s going to be a stressful couple of weeks, folks.
Birdsong: For me, I see the Knicks as presenting all of the issues the Spurs had with the Timberwolves, but with less glaring weakness. They have the length, size, and toughness, but they also have a plethora of three-point shooters. They have a healthy lead guard who is top-notch at both scoring and distributing. And they have a power forward who can stretch the floor and make the pass in reality, as opposed to in theory. The Minnesota series went six games. Barring major injury, I can’t see this not going the full seven. And in that scenario, I think home-court advantage might be the deciding factor. Spurs in 7.
Gomez: I went with Spurs in six. The Knicks are a horrible matchup, but we’ve seen the Silver and Black find another gear during the playoffs. I expect a close series, even if three-point variance turns a game or two into a blowout either way, but I can see San Antonio showing the killer instinct they displayed against the Thunder if they get a chance to end it on the road.
