The Spurs lineup that provides hope for the future
There’s a foundation the Spurs can build on — it just needs some time
Whenever a team has a winning percentage of .217 with 13 games remaining in the season, it can be hard to think happy thoughts. Let’s be honest, Peter Pan would have a hard time flying if he was a San Antonio Spurs fan this year. Luckily, Spurs fans have been able to hang their hats on the fact Victor Wembanyama has been everything scouts and analysts said he’d be. But he isn’t the only reason Spurs fans should be excited about going forward.
There’s the fact the Spurs have a very real chance to end up with two top-10 picks in this upcoming draft, regardless of how the top of the class is seen regarding star potential. That’d give them two picks where they could come away with a point guard (the position most would say the Spurs need most) and/or another quality big (the position the Spurs realistically need the most).
However, what fans should really be excited about is that the Spurs already have a core four to pair with Wembanyama that has statistically been one of the best lineups in the league. It may sound ridiculous having watched the team lose time and time again, but trust me, there’s a five man unit currently on the roster that the team can build around.
If you’re wondering who these four players are, they’re Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, and Keldon Johnson. This shouldn’t be too surprising, given these are the Spurs’ next four most talented players. Nevertheless, with a record of 15-54, you wouldn’t expect to hear any argument for the team having much beyond Wemby to build around. But when you break it down, the numbers say otherwise.
Before getting into what they’ve done on the court, let’s talk about how young this lineup is. At the start of next season, they’ll be an average age of 22.8 with Keldon being the old head at 25. For reference, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s most used lineup (Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Chet Holmgren) will enter next year with an average of 23.6 years old. That 22.8 age would also happen to be younger than the team’s overall average this year — when they’re by far the youngest team in the league.
Age is one thing, but it’s how that five-man lineup has produced this season that makes for the optimistic outlook.
Of the 60 most used lineups (130 minutes played), this unit ranks 18th in +/-, having outscored opponents by a total of 60 points. On a per-minute basis, they rank second. That begs the question, “Why is this five the 58th most used lineup?” Especially when the Spurs starting lineup with Julian Champagnie in place of Keldon is a part of the 60 most used lineups, ranking 31st in +/- (25 points) and 33rd per minute.
There’s more than one likely answer to that question. Starting with the lack of quality depth. In hopes to elevate the quality of bench units, Keldon was shifted to a sixth-man role. Except even with Keldon being a bench piece, these bench units kept getting torched by opponents and that includes when Coach Gregg Popovich played Vassell with Keldon and reserves. There are 10 lineups Pop has played since Keldon became a reserve with a five of Keldon, Vassell, and three bench guys. Those 10 lineups have played a total of 108 minutes (a mere 25 minutes less than the lineup from above has played all year). In those 108 minutes, the Spurs were outscored by 54 points. The most used one is when the three bench pieces are Cedi Osman, Zach Collins, and Blake Wesley, who have played 33 minutes over 12 games. In those 33 minutes, the Spurs were outscored by 19.
Another likely answer to the core five not playing more is the fact this season was about discovery. First, the Spurs had to discover just what Wemby was going to be when he stepped on an NBA court. Nobody can sit here and say they definitively knew Wemby would immediately play up to expectations. There was a legitimate chance that he looked outmatched given his age, frame, and previous experience. All of that quickly went out the window and after 20 games, the Spurs realized it was time to play Wemby at center. After that, this year has been about everybody surrounding Wemby. The point-Sochan experiment has been talked about enough that I don’t need to get into that here. Besides Sochan, the team was learning how much of a load Vassell could carry offensively, where Keldon fits in the scheme of things, and what to make of Champagnie, Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, and the other young guys.
When you put it all together, the season became less about winning games (although they definitely want to win) and more about throwing things against the wall and seeing what sticks. In the coming years, the Spurs will have figured out how to survive the non-Wemby minutes the same way the Denver Nuggets figured out how to survive when Nikola Jokić goes to the bench. But one thing is for sure, the Spurs have five players that fit together stylistically, align on the timeline, and most importantly, are producing on the court together.
