The Spurs’ 2024 NBA Draft strategy revolves around Wembanyama

Why the old “talent vs. fit” question may be irrelevant.

On NBA Draft night, you’ll typically hear scouts and analysts boil down a team’s strategy into one simple question – should they be drafting for talent or fit? To break that down a bit further, it means should the team in question take the best player available regardless of their skillset, or take the player who fits well with the current roster and scheme?

The San Antonio Spurs find themselves in a particularly interesting spot when it comes to the 2024 NBA Draft. The talent vs. fit question is too simplistic for the predicament they find themselves in. With just over 20 games to go in the NBA season, the Spurs are 11-48 and trending towards the best odds to land the number one overall pick yet again. This season has proven that they need more NBA talent on the roster. Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama has been as good as advertised in his rookie season and every decision PATFO makes should be with the intention to support his game.

So the Spurs find themselves somewhere in the middle. A team that desperately needs talented players who can help Wembanyama win games, but also need prospects that can compliment his game. Typically rebuilding teams are looking for their star player, luckily the Spurs have already found that, and just need complimentary pieces next.

They’ll likely have a few shots at grabbing high-end prospects to compliment Wembanyama. The Toronto Raptors owe the Spurs their 2024 pick if it falls outside of the top-6. As of today that pick is expected to be #7 in the draft. The Spurs could have two picks in the top 10 as well as two second rounders that could be packaged for a late first.

In Wembanyama’s rookie season the Spurs have learned a few things. First, he should be playing center long term. It unlocks his defensive presence and is a more natural fit offensively.

Second, he is more effective with a primary ball-handler who can run the pick and roll or play off him in the half court (his best two-man lineups are with Devin Vassell and Tre Jones.)

Third, they desperately need shotmaking around Wembanyama. Teams have doubled, packed the paint and blatantly ignored the Spurs shooters this season. San Antonio is dead last in three-point shooting at 34.3%.

Fourth, with Wembanyama on the floor, the Spurs are a strong defensive team (he has a 108 defensive rating.) Without Wemby the team struggles to protect then paint and chase shooters. With a dominant rim protector behind them, finding shot makers feels more important than lock-down defenders with offensive deficiencies.

At the same time the Spurs still need high-end talent. Too many times this year the team has simply been outclassed by other teams with more legitimate NBA rotation players. They have a star, and an increasingly impressive running mate in Vassell. The rest of the core has been shaky to say the least.

Unfortunately for them, the 2024 draft class is not loaded with potential stars. In fact, it’s been hard for most evaluators to find a sure fire number one prospect with just a month to go until the NCAA Tournament. Alex Sarr, Ron Holland, Zaccharie Risacher, Isaiah Collier and Cody Williams have all spent time as the “number one guy” in the draft. This crop makes prioritizing the skillset that fits with Wembanyama easier than other drafts, where passing on a generational talent despite an awkward fit could be an issue.

Unfortunately for the Spurs, there aren’t a lot of players in this draft that naturally fit with Wembanyama. Sarr is an incredible defender but offensively the floor spacing would be awkward. Risacher is a knock-down shooter with length, but does this team need another player with questionable playmaking skills? Matas Buzelis is an intriguing prospect who could be a solid connector with high defensive upside, but he’s shooting just 31.3% from deep this season (although the jumper is seemingly improving lately.) Reed Sheppard has set the college world on fire with elite shooting and disruptive defense, but questions remain around his size and positional fit in the league.

The point here is that with no sure bets, it makes the most sense to find the prospects that you can see playing along Wembanyama long term. If they have holes in their game, but compliment Wembanyama, that prospect should be prioritized. Talent, obviously is important, but catering this roster to Wemby’s needs is how this team should be built going forward. As I start to ramp up draft coverage on PtR through June, that’s how I will be framing my focus while scouting 2024 prospects.

There are roughly four months to go until the NBA Draft. There is a lot of time left for players to make a case for themselves. Things can and likely will change rapidly in an uncertain class. Throughout all of the noise, one thing should remain certain for San Antonio – find players that help Wembanyama long-term.