The epic series opener of Spurs vs. Thunder and what to expect in Game 2

After a classic Game 1 in which the Spurs led most of the time over the Thunder despite no De’Aaron Fox but had to overcome their own mistakes and ride some Wemby Magic to a double-overtime victory, we continue our third Fraternizing with the Enemy series of these playoffs with Cray Allred of the Daily Thunder. As a reminder, this round is in honor of the late great J.A. Sherman: friend and former manager of Welcome to Loud City, who passed away last year at the age of 49.

J.R. 

I don’t know that I’m equipped to adequately respond to Game 1. I’ve never noticed my heart rate so high for a game I wasn’t playing in. I went ahead and recorded it as a workout on my Apple Watch because it was over 120! And that was just regulation. I’m not sure that’s healthy. 

There were so many moments worthy of focusing on, but the one that I can’t let go of is this: I’ve never seen a team up by two practically let the other team score at the end of regulation while completely selling out to avoid giving up a game winning three in order to play for overtime WHILE ON THE ROAD!? I always heard that was a cardinal sin. But apparently Mitch Johnson was concerned enough by the thought of Chet hitting a wide open three that he had Wemby stay home. After I recovered from the shock, I could see the logic. 

It’s bad enough to lose a game, but the lift OKC would get from hitting a buzzer-beating game-winner would be worse than any other outcome. So he trusted his team, tired as they were, and rolled the dice into overtime, even though that didn’t work. 

I mean, overtime worked in staving off a loss in regulation, but it didn’t stop the Thunder’s momentum and San Antonio was down three with less than half a minute left when Wemby decided to play Steph Curry and shoot what the play-by-play calls a “27-foot running jump shot,” which I wouldn’t call completely accurate but I’m not in the mood to argue about. From that point, the Spurs rode the momentum from Wemby’s audacious shot into the second overtime period and won it 14-7 for a 1-0 series lead. 

I realize that I haven’t even scratched the surface of this game. I haven’t discussed the first three quarters at all. Haven’t given credit to Chet for his game-saving block to end regulation. Haven’t praised Coach Daigneault for sticking to his non-traditional 11-man (eleven?) rotation to keep his guys fresh for a 58 minute contest. Haven’t done a lot, but before I take to babbling incoherently, I want to throw it to you. What was your immediate response and what is your main takeaway from that epic series opener?

Cray:

What. A. Game. 

It was so intense, so action-packed, and long as hell that we could probably both dissect a half dozen coach and player decisions from our teams apiece. On the one hand, a little better shotmaking from the Thunder’s best players would’ve swung this to a victory. On the other, Oklahoma City had the overall turnover, transition, and shooting (thanks, Alex Caruso) that have produced blowout wins the last two season — and it wasn’t enough for a close win against San Antonio. I don’t know what to think, as eager as I am to overreact. If PtR sickos readers enjoy listening to sad Thunder fans do just that for 90 miserable minutes, they should check out Daily Thunder’s Game 1 podcast recap. 

Your questioning of that Wemby-corner assignment echoes what we’re all second guessing on the other end for OKC. As admirable a job Crazy Little Caruso has done going to war with Nikola Jokic and now Wemby in the paint, I don’t know that the battle is even worth fighting. Chet’s aggressive help from the corner when the Spurs get the ball inside to Victor is typically too little, too late. And that simultaneously opens up more of those corner threes that San Antonio has torched the league with all year. (As expected, my enjoyment of Devin Vassell has reached its conclusion.)

Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems pretty clear that Wemby loves dunking on wings and going Kobe against bigs. That Steph-mode three notwithstanding, I would rather see Wemby shoot threes at around his 5+ attempt, 34% average than watch this chart get worse throughout the series.

Matter of fact, I’d rather stab my eyes out than watch him feed that chart with infinity more dunks on the head of Jalen Williams.

Two questions for you: 

1. Are the Thunder playing into the Spurs’ hands with their scheme, or would you find a straight up Chet matchup to be even more in your favor?

2. You mentioned Mark Daigneault’s remarkably deep rotation. Mitch Johnson was the polar opposite. After the half, Johnson played all but one of his starters more than their regular season average for entire games (per Mike Shearer). Which contrasting rotation approach will work out better for the duration of the series, assuming both coaches stick to their guns?

J.R.

First, I think that any single scheme isn’t going to be sufficient to stop the Frenchman. That’s not because there is no scheme capable of stopping or slowing down Victor, that’s been done before even if it hasn’t been done recently or frequently. No, the reason no one scheme is enough is because San Antonio isn’t using a single scheme against SGA, and Wembanyama is at the point where he needs to be game-planned like one of the league’s elite offensive players.

It’s not going to be good enough to have a plan for  Wemby while rotating defenders in and out to execute that scheme. You need to throw a different look at him as often as you can. Sean Sweeney mixed up defenses continually throughout Monday’s game. Shai isn’t sure what defense he’s looking at on a possession to possession basis. I see him just across half court wondering if it’s a soft trap or a zone, or whether he’s going to be blitzed as soon as he puts the ball on the floor. And the time he has to spend figuring it out means fewer chances to make plays. 

If MD and his staff have eight options but none of them are working very well, pick the five they hate the least and cycle through them while giving him a merry-go-round of defenders to execute them. The Alien is impossible to defend straight up but he still has to process what he’s facing. Your best chance is to make him work hard mentally at the same time you’re testing him physically, otherwise his shot chart will keep looking like this (which is possibly the least Wemby graphic I’ve ever seen):

As to the rotations, it’s a good question but I don’t know if I can grant your condition. Joe and Wiggins combined for five minutes, and even though he got twelve in Game 1, I don’t think this is the series for Hartenstein. That’s not a knock on him, Rudy freaking Gobert was largely benched by the end of the last series. That player prototype doesn’t seem to be compatible with winning basketball while Wemby is in the game. Which means that both teams are essentially in the same place: as usually happens when the best teams meet in a series, all roads lead toward that ubiquitous nine man rotation. 

As for the series as a whole, nothing has been decided yet, although things are beginning to take shape. Oklahoma City’s path to the finals exists, but it’s along the margins and the improvements are mainly required on offense. SGA needs to improve his shooting a little bit. Mitchell needs to make a couple more plays per half. The Thunder need to find a handful more successful offensive possessions that don’t involve a mediocre shooter taking an uncontested three. Someone needs to take Chet Holmgren aside, give him a big hug, and convince him that everyone that knows him loves him and believes in him. And finally, for crying out loud, the medical staff needs to find a way to keep JDub healthy. Please!

How about you? When your inner optimist imagines the Thunder’s Game 2 response, what do you see and how does it go?

Cray:

Yeah, Shai has been tested all postseason by doubles, triples, and overloaded zones, but the Spurs have the personnel to turn every possession into a pop quiz. OKC did mix up their sets and actions throughout the game on and off ball, weak and strong side, high and low, etc., but the window of opportunity to read and react to your advantage is so tiny with Wemby and the San Antonio scramblers. SGA has taken a leap as a playmaker this season, but he’s still not the snappiest decision maker with the ball. 

Per CourtSketch, the most balanced minutes were those featuring Alex Caruso alongside Shai against Wembanyama. Caruso is about as trustworthy a postseason shooter as OKC has on the roster. With Wemby giving him the Tony Allen treatment, the heady Caruso drifted around the arc as a capable release valve when Shai drove through traffic. The game was even through the first overtime when that duo and Wemby shared the floor, with both Thunder players outscoring the Frenchman across 27 minutes in total. Of course, Victor won that matchup in the second OT going away.

I expect Daigneault and Shai to unlock more of what worked from the playbook, and for him to speed up his reads as they get acclimated to the Spurs. As nice as sweeping the Suns and Lakers in the first two rounds was for OKC, it wasn’t great preparation for the storm they ran into in the conference finals. But Caruso isn’t going to nail 8 threes every night. Shai will need to bang home a lot more of his own — they will remain difficult looks, but he’s one of most efficient tough shotmakers in league history — and he will need help from secondary playmakers to cut, drive, and shoot in those momentary creases that open when he draws Spurs defenders.

Caruso can be an opportunistic scorer, and he managed to shake Wemby a few times. That’s not enough to lift the offense above “good enough”. You’re right to name Ajay Mitchell in this context. He never lacks aggression, but he took the wrong shots (and floaters, ugh) all night. And if Wemby can really play this heavy of a load with full energy, they’ll need someone outside of Caruso to bother him on both ends.

That’s JDub’s music. He was awesome in the most brutal game imaginable for returning from an extended injury. But he didn’t have the oomph to stand up Wemby, and might not get there this series. Like you said, hopefully he stays healthy enough to keep trying.

That brings me to De’Aaron Fox. I was bummed he missed Game 1, and really hope he’s back for Game 2. The Spurs could absolutely use his minutes; I’m curious if you are itching for him to get back into the starting lineup, though. I was terrified of Dylan Harper getting plugged in with the starters before Fox’s injury was announced. Considering Harper showing out, would you want Mitch to roll with the rookie or bring him off the bench when Fox is back?

J.R.: 

Do you know how when you’re watching a great movie or reading an excellent novel, you’ll be so engaged and involved with the characters until the scene ends and the action jumps to a different character’s thread of the story and you get that feeling of loss because you want to know what happens next with the characters that you were just with? And then the exact same thing happens the next time the scene breaks to rejoin the characters that you were initially upset at leaving? 

That’s what it’s like for me every time one of the Spurs’ three guards leaves the game. “Oh no!” I’ll think, “Harper was just playing so well, and now he’s being replaced.”Then Castle will hit a three, steal the ball and get a breakaway dunk, and then block the opposing team’s center, and I will berate myself for being upset that he came into the game. 

So I’m both excited that Harper got to start and play so much, while also being upset that Fox wasn’t available to come into the game and sub for Castle when he was spraying turnovers like a vaudeville actor doing a spit take. 

The bottom line with Fox is that I want him to come back, but I would rather wait until game three if it means, he’ll be truly healthy and can play the rest of the series without being concerned about his ankle. And if I know the Spurs training staff, they will err on the side of safety. But when he comes back, he’s absolutely got the starting job. I can’t imagine Mitch starting Harper over the veteran for more than one game.

The thing about a playoff series is that no matter who has won the previous game, sometimes it’s hard for me to imagine the other team ever winning. When Minnesota took Game 1 of the second round, it felt like the Spurs might never win. After San Antonio won the next two, it felt like they would never lose again. Do you get that too, and do you feel like Wednesday’s game is a must win for OKC?

Cray:

That casting change analogy totally resonates with me. This season, at their best, the Thunder have always trimmed the rotation down to the most predictable and trusted combination of veteran players. That’s typical of all contenders when the playoffs unfold and the 82 game players fade from view. But my cliche this season has become “pinch yourself”, writing about how it feels watching actually good players like Mitchell and Caruso and even Jared McCain subbing in for the stars. 

NBA fans are pinching themselves, too, ready for the sequel to Game 1: Clash of the Titans. We should feel good being fans of teams putting together this masterpiece. Everyone is asking how any other franchises have any hope of matching the defensive intensity, advanced strategy and tactics, and stable of young, hungry, excellent players suiting up for Oklahoma City and San Antonio on the NBA’s biggest stage. Who cares if these teams are likeable, stylish, popular, or hated? They’re the best, and they’re ours. Timberwolves fans can enjoy all the Ant ads they want while our guys are catching a breather during commercial breaks.

For the Thunder, it’s absolutely a must win (we might need to start tallying how many “must-wins” we flag throughout the series). The pressure is on, their backs are against the wall, the lights are bright…all the cliches apply for an OKC team fighting for a title repeat. I’m nervous but confident about their fate. One, because they’ve stared down these moments before, always harnessing the competitive fire of a champion. Two, because I anticipate a bit of a letdown. Even the most epic series feature more lopsided contests mixed in with the nail biters, and Game 2 for #1 seeds down 0-1 tend to even out relatively comfortably. Even if the Spurs are super fresh and unbothered by the heavy minutes from the other night, it would be really, really tough to avoid any emotional letdown and keep the edge for another 48 minutes in Loud City (although I am not putting it past them).

Cheers to Fox’s likely return, and to another great chapter in the league’s best rivalry.