Spurs prospect profile: Nikola Topić

The Serbian point guard has a high basketball IQ, but questions remain about his health and shooting ability.

What is a point guard? Do they still exist? What do they do? In a near position-less NBA it’s questionable that lead guards are important when so many players on the floor can make plays and initiate an offensive set. As teams get bigger and more versatile, the importance of a floor-general and lead ball-handler has become murkier for NBA front offices.

Yet, you look around the NBA playoffs and see Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Jamaal Murray, Kyrie Irving and Mike Conley Jr. contribute to winning. Maybe we have overthought the roster-building equation. What if, and hear me out here, decades of basketball featuring the point guard in a crucial role indicate that the position is one that should not be treated as an afterthought.

The San Antonio Spurs should be the poster child for what a team looks like without a primary ball-handler. For 25 games they tried to play Jeremy Sochan as a non-traditional point guard/forward hybrid. The result was the franchises worst losing streak. Tre Jones filled the position admirably, but profiles as a high-end backup going forward. Addressing the point guard position is a priority for San Antonio this offseason. If they are looking for a true floor general with the potential to become something more, Nikola Topić should be on their radar.

Topić is one of the most interesting prospects in the 2024 NBA Draft. The 6-foot-6 point guard was a standout for Mega MIS in the Adriatic League or ABA (where Nikola Jokic played from 2012-2015.) He played so well in the 2023-24 season, that he was picked up by KK Crvena Zvezda a team that plays in the ABA and EuroLeague, meaning Topić would play better talent. A knee injury kept him out for three months, meaning we haven’t seen him play much for his new squad.

Since coming back from injury, Crvena Zvezda has brought Topić off the bench. He has struggled to get back into peak form. In his last game against his former team, Mega, Topić had 4 points and 3 assists in just 12 minutes. What’s worse, Topić reaggravated that knee injury on Monday. ESPN reported on Tuesday that Topić was diagnosed with a sprained knee, meaning he avoided major injury. Still, the non-contact injury could raise some red flags around Topić’s medicals leading up to the daft.

Because there hasn’t been a lot of tape on Topić with Crvena Zvezda, stats and film for this profile will come mostly from his time with Mega.

Nikola Topić, 6-foot-6 guard, KK Crvena Zvezda

2023-2024 ABA (Mega) stats: 18.4 points, 7.1 assists, 1.0 steal, 52.3% FG, 25.9% 3PT, 85.5% FT, 67.9% EFG

Player comparison: Goran Dragic, Milos Teodosić

Strengths

Topić has wowed scouts with his passing ability. He is the best passer in the 2024 Draft class. Whether it’s in transition, out of the pick and roll or just on dive and kicks, the Serbian guard is adept at getting the ball to open teammates. Check out this pass from Mega’s scrimmage with USC last summer.

He has extreme patience and the vision to find open teammates. He’s a fundamental passer who can toss the ball with either hand exactly where scorers need it. He’s capable of making post entry passes from the top of the key and the wings. His instincts are really advanced for an 18-year-old.

Where Topić really shines is the pick and roll. He averages 1.02 points per possession in the action, shooting 55% on shots coming from the PnR. His processing ability in that action is special for such a young player. He plays with great pace as the ball-handler. Topić has a quick step and can get downhill with real burst, but he’s also capable of slowing down and finding the open man. If a defense blitzes, he has the ability to extend the play and skip the ball to a teammate. He won’t punish many defenses in drop coverage with his shooting, but he reads the defense really well, making skip passes over the top or finding an angle for the roller. In many ways, his processing in the PnR reminds me of an older Goran Dragic, or his Crvena Zvezda teammate, Milos Teodosić.

Pairing that feel for the game with his frame makes him an exciting prospect. At 6-foot-6 with long arms, Topić will be able to create angles for himself that other point guards can’t. His speed going north to south combined with his soft touch at the rim makes him a threat to score as well. With his long arms, he often goes to scoop layups at the end of quick drives to the rim. He’s not very explosive vertically, but his length makes up for that deficiency a bit.

Weaknesses

Topić’s frame and feel for the game make him a top-5 prospect in the 2024 class. That doesn’t mean that the guard is without his faults. Topić is a poor three-point shooter who hasn’t shot over 30% from deep at any level of professional play. His release point is inconsistent, and he has a weird jumper that is going in two different directions. Slow down Topić’s release and you’ll notice he shoots the ball way out in front of his face while simultaneously leaning back.

There is some room for optimism around Topić’s jumper. He’s a career 87.1% shooter from the free throw line and displays excellent touch around the basket. There are moments where Topić will hit an impressive pull-up three when defenders go under a screen. All of those flashes indicate that Topić has the potential to be a threat from deep eventually, but there are some clear mechanical issues for the 18-year-old guard to fix before he gets there.

That issue with his jump shot is exacerbated by his limited offensive repertoire. It’s rare to see Topić finish a play in the mid-range. He doesn’t shoot a lot of pull-ups and hasn’t showed much of a floater or runner in the paint. It’s pretty much get to the basket or nothing for him right now. That could be a problem against NBA defenses who are already prone to packing the paint on San Antonio.

Off the ball Topić has a habit of standing and waiting to get it back. For as smart as he is with the ball in his hands, he hasn’t shown as much cutting and moving off the ball that smart players tend to inherently do well. Combine that with his poor catch and shoot three-point shot (33% on open C&S jumpers) and you’ll start to wonder what Topić’s role is without the ball in his hands.

You have to wonder if that lack of off-ball urgency comes from a conditioning issue. Topić seems to float in and out of games on the defensive and offensive ends. When he locks in defensively, he can stick with ball handlers and make plays off the ball. He locked up a few of USC’s quicker guards off the bounce last summer. Other times he’s blown by because he’s not closing out properly or in a defensive stance. Topić knows where to be off the ball defensively, but often times is too slow to get into position to make a play. He’s hesitant to be physical defensively and almost never grabs a 50-50 ball or sticks his nose into a tough play.

Topić has injury concerns on top of his on-the-court weaknesses. The team that drafts him will need to be sure the knee is healthy. He already seemed to be lacking burst after the first knee injury. If he’s not able to get some of that back after repeat injuries to the same knee, that could hamper his game quite a bit.

Spurs fit

Of all the teams who could be patient with Topić’s injuries, it would be San Antonio. They have two picks in the lottery, plenty of assets and cap space to acquire a point guard this summer. Jones is still a capable stop gap in a worst-case scenario. If his knee is a real issue, they could draft Topić, let him rehab for a year, then play him in the 2025-26 season. They would have to feel really comfortable with Topić’s medicals for that scenario to play out. The more important question is about his fit in San Antonio.

Yes the Spurs need a point guard, but what kind of lead guard do they need? San Antonio wants the ball in Wembanyama’s hands as much as possible. Do they really need a guard whose best offensive impact comes with the ball in his hands? What if Topić never shoots the ball effectively from deep? The Spurs can’t afford to have another player opposing teams don’t have to respect while Wembanyama has the ball in the half-court.

If San Antonio selects Topić, they’ll be betting that he can become a good shooter and learn to play off the ball in their system. If that happens, he and Wembanyama would become one of the most fun PnR duos in the NBA. The combination of their passing and basketball IQ would only elevate the team around them. Topić’s downhill driving ability would add a nice wrinkle to a Spurs offense that often lacks rim pressure.

If he reaches his apex, he fits well with the current Spurs roster and could be a nightly 10-point and 10-assist guy. There are too many “ifs” in Topić’s game for him to be a slam dunk pick for San Antonio. If Topić doesn’t become a shooter, can’t stay healthy and doesn’t learn to be more active without the ball in his hands, he could wind up being someone the Spurs regret taking with a top-10 pick.

Previous Prospects:

Rob Dillingham

Reed Sheppard