Spurs draft prospect profile: Rob Dillingham

The electric guard would provide a scoring punch for San Antonio.

Let me know if this situation rings a bell. The San Antonio Spurs find themselves in a tight game in the second or third quarter. Victor Wembanyama has gone to the bench for some rest and the team can’t generate any offense. They aren’t getting out in transition and three point shots aren’t falling. The opposing team is able to either dig into the Spurs’ lead, or extend theirs while the offense falters.

Too often were the Spurs searching for offensive consistency in the 2023-24 season. They finished the year in the bottom-ten in offensive rating (110) and points scored per game (112.1). Outside of Wembanyama and Devin Vassell, they didn’t have many players who could create an advantage offensively or hit threes consistently.

It’s why so many Spurs fans are enamored with the freshman guard out of Kentucky, Rob Dillingham, in the 2024 NBA Draft class.

Dillingham is a 6-foot-2 (allegedly) combo-guard who wowed the basketball world with his high scoring performances at Kentucky this season. He exploded for big games against Tennessee and Texas A&M where he looked unguardable. “Rob wit da shifts” as he goes by on social media is a shifty, fast-as-hell guard who can hit shots all over the court.

Dillingham averaged 15.2 points, 3.9 assists and 1 steal on 47.5% shooting from the field, 44.4% shooting from three and 79.6% shooting from the free throw line in his freshman season. Kentucky head coach, John Calipari, brought Dillingham off the bench all year (a puzzling decision that could have been a part of the reason that the coach is now at Arkansas) using him as a spark plug to ignite the Wildcats offense. However, the freshman guard was often pulled from games due to repeat defensive mistakes or puzzling decision-making on the offensive end.

Dillingham’s core strength lies in his explosive scoring ability. If you look up “microwave scorer” in the encyclopedia, Dillingham’s picture would be on the page. He can shoot off the catch, pull up for threes off the dribble and get to the rim for creative finishes with either hand. He shot 50.6% at the rim on 87 attempts. As a shooter, Dillingham hit 47.8% of his catch and shoot jumpers and 39.3% of his shots off the bounce.

Dillingham is one of the best shooters in the draft. He has deep NBA range and is capable of hitting tough shots all over the floor. One quirk in his game that I have become a big fan of is his ability to relocate after a drive and quickly get open for three. He’s an active participant on offense even when the ball isn’t in his hands. He’s willing to come off screens and cut to get himself open for shots. His ability to stretch a defense with his shooting is going to be the primary reason he’s selected in the lottery.

His soft touch is his best skill, his second-best is his speed. Dillingham is a blur with the ball in his hands. He’s one of the fastest players in this cycle. His NBA Draft Combine speed tests are going to be eye-opening. Dillingham inspired me to go back and watch other Kentucky speedsters’ college tape to compare them. I would say that Dillingham is noticeably faster than both Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley, two players that Dilly has often been compared to.

That speed helps Rob create advantages for the offense. He’s able to blow by defenders and get into the paint with or without a screen. He has a good handle and uses his explosiveness to shift a defense. Because teams have to respect his jumper, he’s able to attack hard closeouts and get into the paint. He also has a good sense of when and how to change speeds. Dillingham can lull a defense to sleep and then explode into a gap, attacking the paint.

Dillingham has the upside of an excellent pick and roll player. At Kentucky he mainly looked to score off screens, averaging 1.00 point per possession in his 120 PnR reps (25% of his total offensive possessions.) In that action he can stretch a defense as a shooting threat or get downhill with his speed. Dillingham won’t blow you away with his passing ability, but he’s made some nice reads in the pick and roll, especially when he has a big man to dump the ball off to for a paint touch.

However, there are two sides to the Dillingham offensive sword. He is an energizer bunny of an offensive player. He plays fast and takes risks – that got him into trouble at Kentucky. Dillingham has a habit of throwing risky passes, often times forcing skips over the defense with one hand. The freshman average 2 turnovers a game to his 3.9 assists.

While Dillingham is mostly an efficient offensive player, he can also be prone to forcing his shot. There will be spurts of the game where you may think, “it’s been awhile since Dillingham has got a shot up.” He must be thinking the same thing, because almost on cue, he will force up a bad shot. Calipari had to pull him a few times this season for those mistakes, but he also had an interesting quote on his philosophy coaching a player like Rob.

Dillingham is still developing. Those mistakes are going to happen as he continues to grow. For the most part, Calipari did a good job letting Rob be Rob this season. Spurs head coach, Gregg Popovich has experience in this department coaching flashy players like Manu Ginobili and even Wembanyama. If there is any place that will take the good with Dillingham’s bad, it’s San Antonio.

Speaking of the bad – Dillingham might be the worst defender in college basketball (that’s saying something coming from someone who roots for the 8-24 Missouri Tigers.) Earlier this season Kentucky lost a close game to Gonzaga at home. In that contest, the Bulldogs targeted Dillingham, putting him in screen after screen. His effort in getting around those screens was inconsistent at best, and has been for the majority of the season. His screen navigation is straight up not good. More often than not, Dillingham gives up a bucket in screening actions.

Guarding off the ball, Dillingham has a bad habit of standing straight up and down while watching his man. He’s late getting to the correct defensive position and has a tendency to over-help off the ball. On the ball he’s still susceptible to getting beat off the bounce and is so small that players can use their bodies to create angles for themselves. At the next level, players will be able to elevate and shoot over Dillingham, too.

Which brings up the issue of his size. Kentucky lists Dillingham at 6-foot-2. That’s probably a stretch. We will see what his measurements are at the combine, but my guess is he’s closer to 6-foot than 6-foot-2. The whole “small guard” skepticism is a bit overblown. Jalen Brunson, Damian Lillard and Maxey are all starting guards in the playoffs who are under 6-foot-3. Sure the league is getting bigger, but smaller guards still have their place. That said, it will always put Dillingham at a disadvantage defensively against bigger, stronger players.

His defensive woes can be made up for with a game bending defensive player flanking him. Wembanyama’s elite rim protection should make it easier for the Spurs even if they have a negative defender at the point of attack. We saw this year that even with multiple sub-par defenders on the floor with Wembanyama, the Spurs can put together a top-15 defense.

The offensive fit with Wembanyama is seamless. Dilly and Wemby could be electric as a pick and roll duo. Both of them are high-level scorers who the defense has to respect. Dillingham‘s ability to stretch the defense with his shooting off the bounce would open up space for Wembanyama on the roll. Teams frequently sent another defender at Wemby last season. Dillingham would provide an offensive threat who can make defense pay for overcommitting to Wemby. Dillingham has experience playing with other scoring guards at Kentucky. The offensive synergy with players like Vassell should be enticing for the Spurs.

Just having another player who can create an advantage outside of Wembanyama would be huge for the team. Even if that ends up manifesting in more of a sixth-man spark plug role, that’s a good outcome for the Spurs in the draft. I’m not sure that Dillingham is a day-one plug and play starting point guard for San Antonio. Their turnover issues aren’t going to get better with Dillingham at the helm. But they need more offensive weapons, and Dillingham is one of the best in the draft. He also wants to be a Spur.

Dillingham reminds me a lot of Brandon Jennings. A high volume scorer with the ball in his hands who is a liability defensively. If the Spurs end up taking Dillingham with their first round pick, they’ll need to hope they can hone his offensive skills and minimize his defensive issues with the roster around him. In a weaker draft class, Dillingham is a pretty good fit with potentially elite scoring upside.