San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder series preview
It was meant to happen. The Spurs and Thunder seemed destined to meet in the Western Conference Finals once San Antonio became a bona fide contender, in part by dominating Oklahoma City in the regular season. The two young teams are set to rule the conference for years, led by their MVP candidates, and will have their first important battle sooner than expected.
The Thunder are the favorites. The defending champions were the best team in the regular season, cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs, and have the experience advantage. The pressure will be on them, but they know how to handle it.
Any other opponent on their first deep playoff run might be scared of the moment, but the Spurs have a rare level of confidence for such an inexperienced group and have proved that they can handle the Thunder and the high expectations that come with contention. It should be a fantastic series between two teams that could be in each other’s way on the road to a championship for the foreseeable future.
Pace will be key on offense, but the Spurs must avoid mistakes
The Thunder have a terrific defense that can be equally effective at creating chaos and mucking things up in the half-court. Much has been written about the physicality of the way they are allowed to play in the perimeter, and there are few weak links to exploit. The same is true inside, where Chet Holmgren plays as a terrestrial version of Victor Wembanyama and Isaiah Hartenstein provides rock-solid center play.
The best way to flip the script on a team that frustrates opponents into mistakes that can then be converted into transition opportunities is to play fast enough to avoid their set defense while limiting turnovers. It’s in part why the Spurs beat them consistently in the regular season: they largely prevented the big runs OKC typically makes. San Antonio only coughed up the ball 12.4 times and allowed 12.4 points off turnovers to a team that has averaged over 17 turnovers caused per game and almost 23 points resulting from them during this playoff run, similar numbers to those from the regular season.
As for the halfcourt, the Spurs are surprisingly effective considering how rudimentary their offense is. Talent makes up for a lack of complexity, and the hope is the Silver and Black will find the right matchups to exploit. The guards thrived during the regular season and will need to do so again for San Antonio to have a chance. De’Aaron Fox’s play in particular could be even more important than usual, as he can bail out possessions with his pull-up jumper. The shooters will need to fire away without hesitation when open because the window to do so will shut down quickly, and putting the ball on the floor without a tight handle is asking for trouble against the Thunder. Keldon Johnson was not scared of attacking Holmgren in the regular season and will need to continue doing so. Decisiveness will be key, as many possessions as possible need to end in a shot.
As for matchups, it will be interesting to see how Mark Daigneault handles the Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama assignments. If the Thunder continue to start two bigs, one of them will have to be guarding a perimeter player, and Castle has been the preferred option for other opponents. With Castle shooting well, that might change, but there are no better options. As for Wemby, OKC has put smaller guys on him often. Will they rely on that strategy, or will they try to see if either of the starting bigs or Jaylin Williams can handle the assignment?
The Spurs will need to find ways to stress the defense using switches until a good matchup presents itself and exploit it to score one-on-one or find the open man quickly. Discipline, patience, and excellent execution will be required when the opportunity to run is not there.
The little things will matter as much as slowing down SGA on defense
It’s impossible to look at the Thunder’s success and not attribute a large part of it to the work the reigning and likely soon-to-be two-time MVP does on offense. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most effortless scorer in the league and the savior of some bad half-court possessions that OKC can often have. When they can’t run and the ball is not finding the open man, they can simply give Shai the rock and watch him work as he soars for a mid-range jumper or drives on his way to a bucket or a foul. If he’s not at least contained, it’s tough to beat the Thunder.
Despite their success against OKC in the regular season, the Spurs didn’t really stop SGA, as he averaged 29.5 points and 5.5 assists on 50 percent shooting from the field, only slightly worse numbers than the ones he posted against the rest of the league. But they didn’t allow him to go supernova either, which is all anyone can ask. Mitch Johnson gave him different looks in those matchups, but it’s likely Stephon Castle will get the assignment in the series. Castle, who has struggled with foul trouble often, will need to be on his best behavior to avoid sending SGA to the line too often. Some double teams and traps will surely be used, but the Thunder have more weapons than the Timberwolves, so pressure will need to be applied selectively.
While keeping SGA from taking over is a requirement to win the series, the Spurs can’t simply hyperfocus on that the way they did against Edwards and the Timberwolves last round. They will also need to take care of the little things. As mentioned, no team weaponizes mistakes as well as the Thunder. They often play slowly if there’s no obvious advantage, but will run off any live ball turnover. They are a bad offensive rebounding team, and the Spurs are great at cleaning up opponent misses, but OKC can play big lineups. San Antonio can’t get too comfortable on the glass, or it could give a deadly offense more possessions to work with.
Rotations will need to be crisp as well. Similar to the Spurs, the Thunder’s offensive engine is the drive. They are shooting 75 percent at the rim for the playoffs, which should go down considerably if Mitch Johnson opts to keep Wembanyama always in help position, but sometimes they’ll command two on the ball. If their ball handlers find shooters after touching the paint, San Antonio will need to decide on the fly when to close out aggressively and risk a second drive and when to concede a semi-contested shot. Wembanyama, in particular, will have to be more disciplined than he was at times when zoning up and guarding the corner. As counterintuitive as it might sound, sometimes it’s better to let a decent but inconsistent shooter fire away than to constantly be in rotation. The Spurs know that because they did it often against OKC in the regular season.
The Thunder will score. SGA will get his buckets, and they will manufacture good shots. They have more off-the-bounce juice now than in the past, and they have finishers. All the Spurs can do is make things as hard as possible by not giving them easy transition buckets or extra possessions and trying to make sure the least effective scorer possible takes the shots.
Prediction: Thunder in seven
The Spurs seem like the only team that can realistically beat the Thunder. They have a real chance, but OKC has one big advantage: they are a significantly more well-rounded team.
San Antonio is now where Oklahoma City was before getting Alex Caruso and Hartenstein. The talent is there, but the adaptability and depth are simply not as developed. The Thunder can play big or small. They have big, physical perimeter defenders and also smaller, quicker guards. If someone is struggling in the backcourt or wing, they can throw guys like Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe on the floor, who would be rotation players elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Spurs have a strong top eight but have struggled to make two-center lineups work, are heavily relying on a rookie off the bench, and have two forwards with clear issues as their potential ninth man.
If the series goes long and is close, the Thunder simply seem better prepared to adjust or find an unlikely contributor that gives them an edge. The Spurs’ best chance, on the other hand, seems to be to just out-talent OKC early and not relent until they are against the ropes, so that any tweak is made to try to stay alive instead of gaining the upper hand.
It should be a fun series and the beginning of a long rivalry. Hopefully, the Spurs will find a way to come out on top in the first of likely many postseason matchups, but it won’t be easy.
