Projected 2023 draft order: Which team will pick No. 1 overall?

Nov 29, 2022

ESPN staff

The 1-9-1 Houston Texans have the best chance to land the top pick in the 2023 NFL draft, according to the updated projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The Texans have an 88.6% chance to get the top selection after losing 30-15 to the Miami Dolphins in Week 12. They’re followed in our draft order projections by the Seattle Seahawks, who received the additional first-round pick in an offseason trade with the Denver Broncos. The Seahawks have a 5.5% chance to land the No. 1 selection and are now 6-5 on the season.

There already have been six trades involving first-round picks for April’s draft, with the Texans, Seahawks, Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles in line to have two selections in Round 1. The Dolphins were stripped of their own pick because of violations of league policies relating to the integrity of the game, which means there are only 31 picks in the first round for 2023.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations. NFC/AFC playoff seeding is not taken into account right now; this is just a projection based on average draft position.

Check out the full 1-31 projection for the 2023 NFL draft (updated Nov. 29):

Average draft position: 1.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 86.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%

Average draft position: 3.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 84.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.1%

Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 73.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 96.1%

Average draft position: 6.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 56%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 90%

Average draft position: 6.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 49.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 85.1%

Average draft position: 8.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 72.8%

Average draft position: 9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 64.1%

Average draft position: 9.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 66.6%

Average draft position: 9.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 55.5%

Average draft position: 11
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 47.4%

Average draft position: 11.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 45.7%