Potential Spurs draft targets in the NCAA Tournament’s first round
Prospects that Spurs fans should keep an eye on in the opening weekend of college hoops greatest event.
It’s finally March. It’s a beautiful time when basketball fans who’ve religiously followed college hoops have about the same chances of filling out a perfect bracket as someone who strictly picks off the quality of a school’s mascot. It’s one of the most fun sporting events in the world.
For fans of the San Antonio Spurs, it’s a chance to see some of the best 2024 NBA Draft prospects who could suit up for the Silver and Black next season. The tournament provides a chance for players to elevate their draft stock by proving they can produce with the season on the line. In a relatively flat draft class, March Madness could help some prospects separate themselves from the pack.
In this series, Pounding the Rock will look at NBA draft prospects to watch in each round of the NCAA Tournament. The Spurs have the possibility of getting two first round picks (Toronto owes San Antonio a top-6 protected pick) and two second round picks (their own, and another belonging to the Los Angeles Lakers.)
Reed Sheppard, 6’3” combo guard, Kentucky
Regular season stats: 12.8 ppg, 4.5 apg, 2.5 stl, 54.3%/52.5%/83.1% (68.6% EFG)
Sheppard has been one of, if not the best freshman in college basketball this season. He’s an uber efficient, albeit undersized, combo guard who can shoot the lights out. He’s taken on more primary ball-handling responsibilities for Kentucky, and has shown promise as a playmaker with some big games against Mississippi State and Tennessee. He still has room to grow as a primary playmaker with just a 4.5 to 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio. The kicker for Sheppard’s draft stock is his defensive ability. He has quick and strong hands and pretty good instincts that allowed him to rack up steals and blocks this year.
A lot of eyes will be on Sheppard in the tournament. He’s played well in some big games this season, but doubts remain if he has the upside of a top-5 draft selection. A heroic March run could cement Sheppard as a top-5 pick and put him firmly on the radar for the Spurs. Kentucky has a tough bracket ahead of them, with potential matchups against Marquette and Houston on the horizon, so there will be plenty of big games for Sheppard to prove his worth.
San Antonio desperately needs shooting and defense. Sheppard would step into the Spurs locker room as one of the best shooters on the team. The question for San Antonio is does he fit in with Victor Wembanyama and the current group? If you view Sheppard as strictly a three and defense off-guard, there may be better options at the top of the draft. If PATFO think he has value as an on-ball player who can feed Wembanyama in the half-court and defend at the point of attack on the other end, he could be a great fit. March should paint a clearer picture for them.
Rob Dillingham , 6’2” combo guard, Kentucky
Regular season stats: 15.4 ppg, 3.9 apg, 1.1 stl, 48.2%/44.9%/78.7% (56.9% EFG)
Much like Sheppard, Dillingham is another Wildcat freshman who has quickly risen up NBA Draft boards. Dillingham is like lightning in a bottle. He have scorching hot runs of shotmaking and blinding speed with the ball in his hands. He provides explosive offensive to the Kentucky bench unit, prompting some scouts to compare him to Lou Williams or Immanuel Quickley. The biggest question that remains around Dillingham is his defense and size. At 6-2 (allegedly) and 170 pounds, Dillingham can get targeted on the defensive end (go watch Kentucky play Gonzaga earlier this season to see an extreme example.)
Dillingham seems like a player primed for a March breakout. The tournament is catered toward guard play and hot shooting. If Dillingham has a few explosive offensive performances in a deep Kentucky run, we could be talking about a top-3 type of player. I particularly have my eye on a potential Sweet 16 matchup with a tough Marquette team. Dillingham vs. Tyler Kolek would be an awesome test for the freshman guard.
Spurs fans should be watching Dillingham closely during the tournament. A scoring guard who can space the floor would open up the offense around Wembanyama. That’s why the Trae Young rumors have been so loud for San Antonio. Dillingham still needs work as a playmaker and can go through some cold stretches offensively. The defense is a huge red flag, too. San Antonio will want to see Dillingham compete defensively in the tournament to answer some potential questions about his game.
Ja’Kobe Walter, 6’5” wing, Baylor
Regular season stats: 14.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.1 stl, 37.3%/34%/81.5% (46.9% EFG)
Walter finds himself in the reverse situation of Dillingham and Sheppard. He was ranked highly as a draft prospect at the beginning of the season but has quickly fallen down draft boards. Some draft experts have even dropped him out of the lottery. The tournament provides Walter with a chance to improve his draft standing in a major way. The Baylor Bears have a tough path to the Final Four, but if their guards can get hot, they will be able to play with anyone.
Walter is known as an athletic shooter on the wing. The problem is he hasn’t shot the ball particularly well against other teams in the Big 12. The freshman shot just 29% from deep in conference play this year. He’s a defensive liability and doesn’t provide much playmaking upside. His shooting from three is his main swing skill. If he can get hot in the tournament, scouts could talk themselves into his floor spacing upside.
Shooting wings are seemingly what this Spurs team needs. Walter would fit the bill if not for his other shortcomings. Perhaps the Spurs could see something in Walter that they could develop into a high-level offensive piece. If the Raptors pick lands somewhere in the mid-lottery, the Baylor wing could become an option.
Cody Williams, 6’8” wing, Colorado
Regular season stats: 12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 56.5%/42.1%/72.1% (61% EFG)
Cody is the younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder wing, Jalen Williams. He was regarded as one of the best players in this class coming into the college season. Despite an up-and-down year at Colorado that was plagued by injuries, Williams has found himself firmly in the top-10 conversation. Colorado will have to beat Boise State on Wednesday night to make it into the first round and will face a tough Florida team if they advance.
Williams is a long, versatile athlete who projects to be a connective piece at the next level. His size means he can guard multiple positions and create angles for himself while driving to the cup. He shot a high percentage from three this season (42.1%) albeit on low volume (1.8 attempts,) which means it’s not a sure bet that he’s a plus shooter in the NBA. Williams simply wasn’t aggressive enough as a scorer at Colorado to show the upside teams are looking for with a top-3 selection. He struggles to create his shot off the bounce and isn’t a player whom teams can rely on to go get them a bucket during an offensive drought.
The tournament could be particularly important for Williams. A couple of dominant performances where he looks like the best player on the floor would raise his draft stock significantly. It would also make San Antonio pay close attention to him in the pre-draft process. It’s hard to think of a better wing archetype next to Wembanyama than Williams. A long, switchable defender who can make plays for others and space the floor is exactly what the Spurs need. Williams needs to prove he can be that type of player consistently, and at the highest level.
Johnny Furphy, 6’9” wing, Kansas
Regular season stats: 8.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.9 spg, 47.6%/35.4%/77% (58.4% EFG)
Many college hoops analysts have the Jayhawks on upset alert against Sampson in the first round. With star player Kevin McCullar out, and Hunter Dickinson battling injuries, Kansas is limping into the tournament. To make matters worse, Sampson plays an up-tempo game that will make it tough for KU to play a short rotation. They’ll need Furphy to have a good game to avoid getting bounced early.
Furphy is a young kid out of Australia who worked his way into Bill Self’s starting rotation. He’s long, has a nice shooting stroke, and loves to play in transition. Furphy isn’t someone who has the profile of a star player right now, and it may benefit him to come back for one more year at Kansas. With that aside, he does have NBA tools and fits perfectly in the modern NBA. Teams will be watching to see if Furphy can defend well and show a little more as a connector in the half-court in a potential Kansas tournament run.
If Furphy does enter the 2024 Draft, it will likely be as a late first-round pick. He’s worth a flier if he somehow falls into the second round for the Spurs to get a potential steal. Like Sidy Cissoko in last year’s draft, it makes sense to stockpile these high-upside wings in the late-first to second round and let them develop in Austin for their first season.
