Open Thread: Analytics reveal the Spurs had the best odds of winning the NBA Finals
The 2026 NBA season has officially ended and the New York Knicks were crowned the 2026 NBA Champions. After Game 5, Victor Wembanyama stated, “Our domination stints are absolute. We absolutely dominated for most of the series. But our errors, our mistakes, are punished so hard that we can’t have ups and downs like this.”
Wemby took some flack on social media for the comment. But mathematically speaking, he was correct.
“According to ESPN Analytics, in the 4 games the Spurs lost in the NBA Finals, they had a 91% chance of winning Game 1 up 13 midway through the 3rd, 72,8 chance of winning Game 2 up 2 points with 1 minute left in the 4th, a 99.6% chance of winning Game 4 up 20 points, and a 95.4% chance of winning Game 5 up 10 points with 7:54 left in the 4th.”
Obviously, there were problems closing out games which will be a major focus next season. But in three of the four games, the Spurs had over 90% chance of winning during the second half. The Knicks did the impossible while the Spurs did the unthinkable.
FYI: I ordered Midrange Theory By Seth Partnow. It should come next week. For anyone who wants to read and discuss along. Thanks for the suggestion Montreal. I assume zsals is in?
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