NFL Week 1 Super Contest Mock Entry
Just to be clear, I do not have an entry in a Super Contest but I know lots of people are participating in competitions like that this season so I am going to try and help this audience win week to week using the same basic format.
So we are all on the same page in terms of the concept, I will be making five picks against the spread each week. I will gather all of the lines at one point in time, just like in the contests.
As we all know, lines move all the time, and sometimes that is a good and a bad thing. That is one of the tricky parts of the contest — finding the right value spots. When you are not locked into a contest you have the freedom of making picks throughout the week including right up to kickoff (and in-game too).
We will track the results and hopefully not embarrass ourselves (myself).
Week 1 Super Contest Picks
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (at Detroit)
If you will recall this is a play I suggested way back when the advance lines came out and nothing has changed my mind about it. I am not saying the Eagles are the best team in the NFL but few improved more over the offseason. They do not need to be at their best in the opener to get a win either. They can be methodical and work the running game as they figure out how to best deploy new receiver AJ Brown. The defense is upgraded too, especially up the middle and the pass rush. I think they win by 10.
Miami Dolphins -2.5 (vs New England)
Overall I am not high on the Dolphins this season. However, I do like them in this spot though as there is nothing positive coming out of the New England camp this summer. Miami gets the advantage of being at home and still being a little unknown with a new head coach and a new offensive system being put in place. I think that can give them an early advantage and I like Tua Tagovailoa in a game where he can play it safe and shouldn’t have to play catchup. That is his specialty.
Tennessee -5.5 (vs. New York Giants)
The Titans are my survivor pool pick this week so I looked at this game pretty closely. I like the Giants’ new head coach and he has some weapons to work with but Daniel Jones is still going to hold them back at the quarterback position. By comparison, other than doing a reload at receiver we know exactly what to expect with the Titans and they are best at the beginning of the season when RB Derrick Henry is extra fresh. Tennessee wins by a TD if not 10+.
Tampa Bay -1.5 (at Dallas)
Dallas seems destined to have a disappointing season this year, the question is whether it is just that or a total disaster. Tampa Bay has some question marks in terms of Tom Brady being retired, then back, then whatever that gap was last month, but that is not enough to think they are not going to win in the opener. Dallas is at home, but with the worst offensive line they have had in years and that is not a great place to start the season, especially against a team that is solid up front defensively. They might be able to score a little but their defense is not good enough to keep the Bucs from scoring enough to win the game.
San Francisco -6.5 (at Chicago)
The Bears might be the worst team in the NFL. San Francisco is a legit Super Bowl contender even though they are inexperienced at quarterback with Trey Lance. The rest of the roster is very strong, especially on defense and they are one of the best-coached teams in the league. Even if San Francisco is a little sluggish on the road in Week 1 they should win with ease. I almost made them my Survivor pick but nevertheless, I like them to cover and win by double-digits in this spot.
Hope this helps.
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Matt Wiesenfeld has been handicapping games and espousing sports wisdom online for more than a decade, writing thousands of articles to help bettors understand and play the market. Matt loves to bet on, write about, and engage on MLB, the NFL, NBA, college football, and college basketball.
