NFL Playoffs: Wiesguy’s 2 Picks and a Prop for Jaguars-Chiefs

K.C. did beat Jacksonville during the regular season too. That was back in Week 10, 27-17. Since then the Jags have lost just once. 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 21, 2023
4:30 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Spread: Kansas City -8.5
Total: 53 

When these teams met during the season in Kansas City, the line was Chiefs -10. This week we are getting a smaller number, but it is in that dead zone where it might as well be -10. 

Spread Pick: Kansas City -8.5

There has not been a great track record of teams coming off their bye weeks in recent years but we also just saw how bad Jacksonville can look for a half last week. Odds are they are not going to start like that again, but a more mature Kansas City team will not let them back into the game the way that L.A. did. Backdoor covers are always a concern when you have a number this big but I like the Chiefs to win each half by a TD. This game definitely has blowout potential. 

Total Pick: Under 53

We are seeing a lot of high-scoring games in these playoffs. These coaches might be familiar with each other and they are also two of the best offensive minds. However, Kansas City is not the quick strike offense they have been in the past and Jacksonville is probably better suited to win a game where they don’t have to score a ton. Something like the 27-17 final we saw during the regular season seems probable. 

Prop Pick: Travis Etienne Longest Rushing Attempt Over 16.5 Yards

I think the Jags are going to try and play keep away against Mahomes and the Chiefs. That means relying on the running game. They should be able to break at least one decent run, like they did the first time these teams met when Etienne broke a 24-yarder. A more reasonable game script means they can lean on the run more this week.