NFL futures: What impact will Gronk’s retirement have on Tom Brady’s stats?
Tom Brady is running out of people to throw to.
Rob Gronkowski, Brady’s top target for the last decade, announced his retirement Tuesday. Gronkowski spent the last two years of his 11-year career in Tampa Bay, catching 100 passes for 1,425 yards and 13 touchdowns. When the Buccaneers’ wide receiving corps became decimated last season, Gronkowski revived himself as Brady’s top target – helping lead the Bucs to the NFC Divisional Round.
Now he’s gone, and Tom Brady and Buccaneers fans everywhere should be worried.
Without Gronkowski, Brady is a completely different quarterback. It’s been like that since Gronk entered the league and will be even more so the case now that Brady is entering his age 45 season.
Brady has played 148 games with Gronkowski in his career. In those games, he has a completion percentage of 66%, averages 291.6 yards per game, has a 4.21 TD-INT ratio and a QB rating of 103.8. Those are fantastic numbers. Let’s look at the flip side.
In the 48 games without Gronk, Brady’s numbers drop across the board. He falls to a 60.8 completion percentage, averages 261.6 yards per game, a 2.86 TD-INT ratio and a quarterback rating of 89.6.
Brady’s season long props are still set at a high line. His yards prop is set at 4,500 yards (-110 on the OVER/UNDER) and 33.5 touchdown passes (-110 on the OVER/UNDER). Brady will have to figure out how to reinvent himself in a way that he hasn’t figured out yet over the equivalent of three full seasons.
Tampa Bay is -300 to win the NFC South and +600 to win the Super Bowl. Even though the path may still seem easy, the actual journey just got a lot harder for Tampa Bay’s leader.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.
