NFL bet prep: Lessons from last year’s receiving touchdown leaders

Wednesday, we took a dive into the players who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2021. The goal there was to both remind us on the top scorers last year, as well as take stock of their situations this season.

Determining whether these players are good targets to bet to score a touchdown or if we should turn our attention to one of their teammates is a valuable exercise.

Now, we turn our attention to the receiving touchdown leaders from 2021. We had ourselves eight players who hauled in double-digit receiving touchdowns last season, with a group of seven behind them at nine TDs.

The leading receiving touchdown scorers from last season

1. Cooper Kupp (16)
2. Mike Evans (14)
3. Ja’Marr Chase (13)
4. DK Metcalf (12)
5. Davante Adams (11)
6. Adam Thielen (10)
7. Stefon Diggs (10)
8. Justin Jefferson (10)

Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp had himself one hell of a year, completing the receiving triple crown (leading the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns) en route to Offensive Player of the Year honors and a Super Bowl ring.

While some regression is fair to expect off such a historic season, Kupp’s role is clear as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target. Kupp was a big-play threat and led the NFL in red zone targets with 37.

We already know what the market thinks of Kupp scoring this year, -140 to score in the season opener next Thursday night.

That’s not a bet you’d want to make straight, but Kupp will typically be a good parlay inclusion. We wrote the other day about how we have our eye on Allen Robinson’s touchdowns, and with him likely to be plus-money most weeks, keep an eye on the Rams new WR2.

Season total on DraftKings: 11.5 touchdowns (-115) Betting thoughts: Not worth a bet straight if not plus-money, but sure to eclipse double-digit scores again.

Mike Evans

I can personally admit that sustained success becomes boring, so much so that a player becomes an afterthought. Mike Evans is the prime example of just that. I feel it during my fantasy drafts, and I feel it when I scan the board for a touchdown scorer.

It feels like it’s time to put that to rest and give Evans the attention he deserves. The Bucs receiver has gone for 1,000+ yards in all eight seasons, and in the two seasons with Tom Brady as his quarterback, Evans has finished with 13 and 14 touchdowns scored.

Evans will be a great one to look at once again. Chris Godwin is expected to begin the year hobbled or out of the lineup, and the rest of the receiving room has some question marks in Tampa Bay.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski is also out of the picture (for now), and he’s taking his 13 touchdowns over the past two years with him. 

Evans feels in store for another strong season.

Season total on DraftKings: 10.5 touchdowns (-105) Betting thoughts: A great weekly look to score.

Ja’Marr Chase

What a rookie year for Ja’Marr Chase, who piled up 13 touchdowns, many of the big play variety. Chase is now just in his second year, and it’s reasonable to expect another level to be reached.

Chase and Joe Burrow’s chemistry is clear, and this Cincinnati offense is as explosive as they come. The only potential deterrent of betting Chase to score is that the value on the other Bengals receivers, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, may be too good to pass up.

Higgins has six touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, and he scored twice in the Super Bowl. Chase is the clear alpha in this room, and as long as he’s around +140 to score, it’s a fine bet for your football Sunday.

Season total on DraftKings: 10.5 touchdowns (-120) Betting thoughts: If the price is right, Chase is a good bet to break a big play every week.

DK Metcalf

Up to this point, we’ve been expressing confidence that the league’s top receivers can maintain their production from last season.

You may think that changes with DK Metcalf no longer catching passes from Russell Wilson. I admit, I had that paragraph all written out.

Then I did some digging. Geno Smith was named the starter for Week 1, with Drew Lock an option should Smith struggle.

It was a natural assumption from me to wager that a drop to the quality of QB like Smith would make Metcalf a player we can’t bet on this year. 

Smith tossed five touchdowns last year in four games. Metcalf caught four of them. How about that? The expected ineptitude of this Seahawks team could give us Metcalf odds at a very favorable price.

This is one to look for. Someone has to catch some passes, and Metcalf is the clear WR1 on this team. I love that connection with Smith from last year.

Season total on DraftKings: 6.5 touchdowns (+100) Betting thoughts: Based on the market’s value of Metcalf’s season-long scores, we could find ourselves some terrific odds on a Metcalf touchdown. I did not expect for this to become my favorite early season TD bet, but it is.

Davante Adams

Davante Adams is a Raider this year after eight seasons with the Packers. Adams has scored double-digit touchdowns in five of the past six seasons, and while there is certainly a drop-off from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, it’s safe to expect plenty of targets for Adams in 2022.

Carr has not exceeded 27 touchdown passes since 2016, but with the addition of Adams and a new coaching staff, it’s safe to assume a pass-happy attack is coming to Las Vegas this year.

Carr and Adams went to Fresno State together, and Adams played two seasons with Carr as his quarterback. His first year saw Adams score 14 times, and his sophomore season saw Adams tally 24 touchdowns.

While that is unreasonable expectation, it’s highlighted to showcase the clear chemistry these two had. I’m sure they’ve dusted off the cobwebs this summer, and Adams should be heavily utilized near the goal line this season.

Season total on DraftKings: 10.5 touchdowns (+100) Betting thoughts: If Adams finds himself in the +130 to +140 range, he becomes an intriguing option. It’s worth waiting and seeing how the receivers in Las Vegas coexist before targeting an Adams TD prop.

Adam Thielen & Justin Jefferson

Let’s group these two together, shall we? Kirk Cousins was able to support two receivers scoring 10 touchdowns, but it’s clear that Justin Jefferson has supplanted Thielen as WR1 (and one of the best receivers in the game).

Not much has changed on the Vikings to expect a decrease from these two combined, but the projection here is that Jefferson eats into Thielen’s total, with the potential to lead the NFL in receiving scores. 

Jefferson was targeted 20 times in the red zone last year to Thielen’s 13. Thielen will have the better odds this season, but Jefferson is the one you can feel more comfortable betting on.

Season totals on DraftKings: Adam Thielen (7.5 receiving touchdowns), Justin Jefferson (9.5 receiving touchdowns) Betting thoughts: Jefferson will be the preferred play earlier on.

Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs is going a bit under the radar here as we approach the 2022 season, with so much of the buzz going to his teammate Gabriel Davis, who is slotting in as WR2 this year. We get the Davis hype, and we support it. If you’ve forgotten his four-touchdown performance against Kansas City in the divisional round, you should probably just go and watch this game’s highlights right now. Warning: Side effects of the video include a deep craving for NFL’s return to action.

Diggs has caught 18 touchdowns since joining Buffalo, and Josh Allen is only getting better. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are now out of the picture, so Diggs feels like a good bet to see even more volume this season.

He was second in the NFL in red zone targets last year with 34, and that role should remain a big part of his game. 

He is currently listed at +130 to score in the Bills-Rams game next Thursday. Curiously, Davis’ odds are better, at +120. We may have to bet Diggs for a touchdown if he doesn’t even have the best odds of the Bills receivers.

Season total on DraftKings: 8.5 receiving touchdowns (-115) Betting thoughts: His role is safe as they come and should be considered on a weekly basis.