Moody’s TE breakdown: Strike early on the big three, or play the waiting game

Our ESPN Fantasy analysts are providing overviews and fantasy football draft strategy for each key position. Be sure to check them all out: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End

The dust has settled on the NFL draft, and OTAs and minicamps are just around the corner. Excitement about the upcoming season is in the air, so let’s set the stage for the tight end position in fantasy football.

Tight ends can be a polarizing topic in fantasy football drafts. Some managers hold off filling the spot until the later rounds so they can stock up on running back and wide receiver talent. Then there are those who prioritize landing a top-three tight end. Because drafts can be unpredictable, the optimal plan of attack might depend on where you’re picking from.

Managers who had Travis Kelce on their roster last season had a significant advantage. He was far and away the top fantasy tight end in 2022, outscoring the next closest (T.J. Hockenson) by more than 100 points. The only non-quarterbacks who accumulated more fantasy points than Kelce were Austin Ekeler, Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs and Stefon Diggs.

Tight end draft strategy

When should I draft a tight end in fantasy football? Well, it depends. Players at this position generally don’t score as well as wide receivers and running backs, so some managers tend to target them early in the draft. An elite TE1 can definitely give you an edge every week. I’m about to say something important. Please repeat after me: If you draft a tight end early, you better be confident they have a chance to finish as the overall TE1. You’ll have to pass on running backs and wide receivers if you select Kelce, Hockenson or Mark Andrews in the first four or five rounds.

There’s a lot more depth to tight end than you might think, and the position doesn’t dry up in drafts like at running back or wide receiver because most fantasy leagues have one starting TE slot. Tight ends play a bigger role in the modern NFL now that it’s a passing league. During the past three years, more than 20% of passes have been thrown to the position. This coincides with the overall average depth of target (aDOT) decreasing as well. It’s partly because defenses have adapted to slow down quarterbacks and prevent big passing plays.

The bottom line is, blitz rates have been steadily dropping since 2006. Zone coverage has been trending the same way since 2016. These trends encourage quarterbacks to hold on to the ball, throw underneath more often and target holes in the zone, which is great for tight ends.

This is why I usually wait until the middle or late rounds to draft one. There are plenty of dependable starters in the second and third tiers who won’t break the bank if we are viewing draft capital as currency. When evaluating these tight ends, be aware that targets, aDOT and receptions per game are some of the most consistent stats.

Top 2023 storylines

• Will Kelce continue to defy age regression? It’s hard to bet against someone who has been the top fantasy tight end in six of the past seven seasons. Kelce has averaged 8.6 targets, 77.5 receiving yards and 17.1 fantasy points per game over that time frame. It also helps that he’s tied to an explosive Chiefs offense that finished first in total yards and points scored per game last season.

• Can Dalton Schultz stay fantasy relevant with the Texans? Houston has a rookie quarterback and a new offensive coordinator, Bob Slowik, part of Kyle Shanahan’s coaching tree. Schultz will catch many short and intermediate passes in the middle of the field in this scheme and lead the Texans in targets.

• Will Pat Freiermuth join the big boy circle of tight ends in 2023? As one of eight tight ends in league history to convert 70 or more catches into first downs in his first two seasons in the league, Freiermuth played a significant role in quarterback Kenny Pickett‘s development last season. That should continue in 2023.

• Will Darren Waller return to form with the Giants? Waller has had two injury-shortened seasons since setting career highs in receptions and receiving yards in 2020. Now that he has been traded to the Giants, Waller could reenter the top tier of fantasy tight ends. Daniel Jones should heavily target him. A move to a new team and Waller’s recent injury history make him risky.

Breaking down the TE tiers

Tier 1
Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews
T.J. Hockenson

You shouldn’t be surprised to see Kelce, Andrews and Hockenson in the top tier. Fantasy managers know what to expect from Kelce. Andrews’ value is in a better place now that we know Lamar Jackson will be under center for the Ravens in 2023. I’m optimistic about offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s new scheme in Baltimore. Andrews is a great fit for Monken, who likes to use tight ends to create mismatches and stress the defense from sideline to sideline, creating space for playmakers to thrive. Hockenson’s success with the Vikings last season should translate to the upcoming season, especially with an entire offseason to prepare with Kirk Cousins. He averaged 8.6 targets and 12.9 fantasy points in 10 games with Minnesota. You’ll have to use a pick in Rounds 1 through 4 to draft one of these tight ends.

Tier 2
Kyle Pitts
George Kittle
Dallas Goedert
Pat Freiermuth
Darren Waller
Evan Engram

You should feel comfortable starting the tight ends from this tier if you prefer to address the position in the middle rounds. Pitts showed fantasy managers his upside as a rookie in 2021 when he eclipsed 1,000 yards. He’s an intriguing bounce-back candidate with second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. Kittle was great last season with Brock Purdy at quarterback. In those games, he averaged 16.8 fantasy points. The Eagles employ a lot of 12 personnel, which bodes well for Goedert’s 2023 season. Last season, he averaged 5.7 targets and 11.7 fantasy points per game. Engram had career highs in receptions and receiving yards while scoring four touchdowns in his first season in Jacksonville.

Tier 3
David Njoku
Dalton Schultz
Cole Kmet
Dawson Knox
Tyler Higbee
Greg Dulcich
Gerald Everett
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Zach Ertz

Njoku and Okonkwo are two tight ends I’m drawn to in this tier. Njoku is well positioned to build on his breakout season with an improved Deshaun Watson and perhaps better health. Okonkwo’s 2.61 yards per route run led all tight ends and was second in the league behind only Tyreek Hill. Okonkwo will be the clear-cut starter this season with Austin Hooper now with the Raiders. By pairing tight ends from this tier, you can implement a streaming-by-committee approach to target the best matchups each week.

Potential breakouts … and concerns

It’s obvious that Njoku and Okonkwo have breakout potential, but here are two more names to watch:

Greg Dulcich is someone I’ll be watching very closely to see how he gets utilized in Sean Payton’s offense in Denver. Dulcich has the ability to threaten defenses on all three levels and become a mismatch nightmare for opponents.

Juwan Johnson is another. He had a career-high seven touchdowns and was third on the Saints in targets. Johnson just signed a two-year deal with the Saints and will be catching passes from Derek Carr.

One concern I have is whether Pitts will bounce back after a disappointing season. We’ve seen his upside, but Ridder is unproven at the pro level under center. Pitts could be a nice value in fantasy drafts if he and Ridder work together and get in sync during the offseason. He could also be a bust for two straight seasons. Pitts is worth a gamble at his average draft position. He has the raw talent and skill set to be a top tight end.