King of Props: Nico time

Identifying letdown spots – games when a team is unlikely to perform at its best – has been a fundamental part of football handicapping since the days of leather helmets. The Commanders seem to be in a textbook one, as they’re playing a second-straight road game after earning an emotional win over the previously undefeated Eagles on Monday night. Today’s opponent may occupy the other end of the power rankings, but we’re backing a member of the 1-7-1 Texans for our top prop: 

The bet: Over 3½ receptions for Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (+125 DraftKings)

A 2021 third-round pick out of Michigan, Collins has prototypical size (6-4) and speed (4.4 40-yard dash). He returned last week after a two-game absence and was the focal point of the passing offense, recording five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown.

Even more notable, his 10 targets from Davis Mills bested the total of every teammate by at least three. Collins appears to have supplanted Brandin Cooks as Houston’s No. 1 wideout, outproducing him by more than 80 yards in their last three full games together.

The Commanders have been tough to run on for a solid month, holding three of their last four opponents to under 100 rushing yards. The way to attack them is through the air, and Collins should see more than enough throws to clear this number – at plus money.