Is Trey Lance Coming Home to Minnesota?

Lance is one of the most fascinating prospects I’ve ever studied. He started only 17 games in college, all against FCS opponents. The 20-year-old would have been the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. Now? He’s a wild card in the top 10.

But when it mattered most, Trey Lance caught the attention of Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers front office. So much attention, that they traded three first round picks and a third to select him.

So far, that hasn’t entirely worked out in their favor. After deciding to sit him his rookie year he has only started two games. The second of which, he suffered a season ending ankle injury. What was seen as an unfortunate setback turned into a question of if he should start when he returns in 2023, and the farther the 49ers advance in the playoffs, the more it seems the answer is Brock Purdy.

If San Francisco does indeed decide to trade away Trey Lance, they could have a bidding war on their hands. Though they would not be able to recoup the number of picks they gave away in selecting him.

Michael Silver of the San Francisco Chronicle has recently reported that the bidding would likely peak around a third round pick. Silver asked his contacts from various front offices, league officials that included some general managers, and they believe the 49ers wouldn’t get more than a third rounder as compensation.

Is that a trade worth making when you have already given up so much? Absolutely.

Any Returns are Good Returns

In an ideal world for the 49ers, they would be able to get at least a first round pick for Trey Lance, but that just isn’t possible. In his first game as the starter, Lance put up rather disappointing numbers against the Chicago Bears in their season opening monsoon game.

On a flooded field, his completion percentage was just under 50% for 164 yards and an interception. He also rushed for 54 yards on 13 attempts, but when you’re in a torrential downpour, there isn’t going to be a whole lot of successful passes. For comparison, Justin Fields, in that same game, also was under 50% completions with 121 yards through the air. He may have had two touchdowns and a single interception, but he also had been adjusting to the speed of the NFL earlier as he had been the Bear’s starter since the prior season.

Because of his lack of playing time, there is very little tape for teams go off of in their determination on whether to trade for Trey Lance or not. The 49ers are the only ones who have seen what Lance can do, and would likely only build up his potential to attract big spending suitors. One team, however, has seen what Lance can do in a limited capacity. The Minnesota Vikings.

This past preseason, the two teams held a joint practice ahead of their pre season game in Minnesota. If anyone outside the bay area has an idea of what Lance can do, it would be the Vikings. And they have plenty reasons to bring him in.