Heavyweights collide? Chelsea’s most likely Champions League Last-16 opponents revealed
An insight into the percentage chances of Chelsea facing one of European football’s heavyweights in next year’s Champions League Round-of-16 has been provided on Thursday evening.
Blues pegged back
Thomas Tuchel’s side were of course back in action on Thursday night.
Already assured of their place in the knockout rounds of the Champions League, the Blues made the trip to Russia to take on Zenit St. Petersburg, in the knowledge that they needed simply to match Juventus’ result on the night to secure table-topping status in Group H.
When all was said and done, however, Chelsea came up short in their efforts to do precisely that.
Upon Timo Werner guiding them into a 3-2 lead ten minutes from time, the European champions appeared well on their way to a 5th victory of the group stage campaign.
But, right at the death, there was a twist in the tale.
After the ball dropped to the edge of the area, Magomed Ozdoyev lashed a stunning effort into the roof of the net, securing a share of the spoils for Zenit in the process:
A stunning strike from Magomed Ozdoyev 😮💨
A wonder goal right at the death from Zenit stops Chelsea from topping #UCL Group H 🚀 pic.twitter.com/Rajrv6Hfx7
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) December 8, 2021
Juventus, meanwhile, sauntered to a 1-0 downing of Malmo in their own final day outing, ensuring that the Bianconeri, and not Chelsea, topped the Group H table.
Real Madrid lie in wait?
And, as alluded to above, 24 hours on, an insight into just how costly the Blues’ last-gasp slip-up could yet prove has been provided.
Of course, their final day drop to 2nd means that Chelsea will enter the Champions League Last-16 draw on the tougher side of things, primed to face off against the winner of another group.
With Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City having made up three such group winners, but also plying their trade in the Premier League, Thomas Tuchel’s troops are left with just four potential opponents in the knockout phase:
- Bayern Munich
- Real Madrid
- Ajax
- LOSC Lille
Which of these clubs, statistically, though, marks Chelsea’s most likely opponent?
Well, an insight into precisely that has now been provided.
As per renowned statistician Mister Chip, amid a detailed breakdown of the precise percentage chances of every possible Last-16 tie, the current Champions League holders’ most likely test in the next round comes in the form of a showdown with former boss Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid.
Such a tie, the most probable of all in the first knockout phase, comes in at a hefty 32.3%.
The Blues’ next likeliest opponents are Lille (25%), followed by Bayern and Ajax (both 21%).
¡¡¡El @VillarrealCF es el pasajero número 16!!!
Aquí tenéis las probabilidades de todos los enfrentamientos que pueden darse en los octavos de final de la UEFA Champions League #UCL 2021-22: Real Madrid-Chelsea es el duelo más probable. pic.twitter.com/SOYceaL7Vd
— MisterChip (Alexis) (@2010MisterChip) December 9, 2021
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Premier League table
| # | Team | MP | D | P |
| 1 | Manchester City | 15 | 23 | 35 |
| 2 | Liverpool FC | 15 | 32 | 34 |
| 3 | Chelsea FC | 15 | 26 | 33 |
| 4 | West Ham United | 15 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 14 | -1 | 25 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 15 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Arsenal FC | 15 | -4 | 23 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 15 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Leicester City | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 12 | Everton FC | 15 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Brentford FC | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 15 | -2 | 16 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 15 | -7 | 16 |
| 16 | Southampton FC | 15 | -7 | 16 |
| 17 | Watford FC | 15 | -9 | 13 |
| 18 | Burnley FC | 14 | -7 | 10 |
| 19 | Newcastle United | 15 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich City | 15 | -23 | 10 |
| Player | Team | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Salah, Mohamed | Liverpool FC | 13 |
| Vardy, Jamie | Leicester City | 9 |
| Jota, Diogo | Liverpool FC | 8 |
| Mane, Sadio | Liverpool FC | 7 |
| Silva, Bernardo | Manchester City | 7 |
| Dennis, Emmanuel | Watford FC | 6 |
| Antonio, Michail | West Ham United | 6 |
| Ronaldo, Cristiano | Manchester United | 6 |
| Son, Heung Min | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 |
| Raphinha | Leeds United | 6 |
| Wilson, Callum | Newcastle United | 6 |
| Maupay, Neal | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 |
| Mount, Mason | Chelsea FC | 5 |
| Fernandes, Bruno | Manchester United | 5 |
| King, Joshua | Watford FC | 5 |
| Gray, Demarai | Everton FC | 5 |
| Smith-Rowe, Emile | Arsenal FC | 5 |
| Pukki, Teemu | Norwich City | 5 |
| Cornet, Maxwel | Burnley FC | 5 |
| Sarr, Ismaila | Watford FC | 5 |
| Player | Team | Red Cards | Yellow Cards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis, Emmanuel | Watford FC | 0 | 6 |
| Laporte, Aymeric | Manchester City | 1 | 5 |
| Pogba, Paul | Manchester United | 1 | 4 |
| Canos, Sergi | Brentford FC | 0 | 5 |
| Richarlison | Everton FC | 0 | 5 |
| Ritchie, Matt | Newcastle United | 0 | 5 |
| Westwood, Ashley | Burnley FC | 0 | 5 |
| Tarkowski, James | Burnley FC | 0 | 5 |
| Duffy, Shane | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 5 |
| Lascelles, Jamaal | Newcastle United | 0 | 5 |
| Neves, Ruben | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 | 5 |
| Ward, Joel | Crystal Palace | 0 | 5 |
| Romeu, Oriol | Southampton FC | 0 | 5 |
| Skipp, Oliver | Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 5 |
| Salisu, Mohammed | Southampton FC | 0 | 5 |
| Antonio, Michail | West Ham United | 0 | 3 |
| Fernandes, Bruno | Manchester United | 0 | 4 |
| James, Reece | Chelsea FC | 1 | 3 |
| Raphinha | Leeds United | 0 | 4 |
| Gallagher, Conor | Crystal Palace | 0 | 4 |
| Player | Team | Assists |
|---|---|---|
| Salah, Mohamed | Liverpool FC | 8 |
| Alexander-Arnold, Trent | Liverpool FC | 7 |
| Pogba, Paul | Manchester United | 7 |
| Jesus, Gabriel | Manchester City | 6 |
| Dennis, Emmanuel | Watford FC | 5 |
| Kovacic, Mateo | Chelsea FC | 5 |
| Mount, Mason | Chelsea FC | 4 |
| James, Reece | Chelsea FC | 4 |
| Bowen, Jarrod | West Ham United | 4 |
| Doucoure, Abdoulaye | Everton FC | 4 |
| Redmond, Nathan | Southampton FC | 4 |
| Robertson, Andy | Liverpool FC | 4 |
| Antonio, Michail | West Ham United | 3 |
| Fernandes, Bruno | Manchester United | 3 |
| Gallagher, Conor | Crystal Palace | 3 |
| Saint-Maximin, Allan | Newcastle United | 3 |
| Benrahma, Said | West Ham United | 3 |
| Henderson, Jordan | Liverpool FC | 3 |
| Canos, Sergi | Brentford FC | 3 |
| Lowton, Matthew | Burnley FC | 3 |
