Have The Bucs Been ‘Unlucky’ So Far In 2022?

Finally, Barnwell mentions the Bucs’ schedule as another aspect of their unluckiness. While Tampa Bay has played Dallas (6-3), Kansas City (7-2), Baltimore (6-3) and Seattle (6-4), it split those four games. Losses to Carolina (3-7) and Pittsburgh (3-6) were more egregious. Nonetheless, from Barnwell:

“There’s also that strength-of-schedule argument. A better way to put this than lucky might be “lopsided.” Per Football Outsiders, the Bucs played the 12th-toughest schedule through the first 10 weeks. While that might not seem too devastating, things are about to get a lot easier.

“Just two of Tampa’s final seven games are against teams with winning records: A home game against the 5-4 Bengals and a road trip to play the 5-4 49ers. The Bucs get the Browns and Saints over the next two weeks and finish with the Cardinals, Panthers and Falcons. The Super Bowl LV champs likely will be favored in six of their remaining seven games.”

Things do set up nicely down the stretch for the Bucs. Those two games against Cincinnati and San Francisco should prove tough, but the rest of the schedule should be manageable. “Should” is doing a lot of work in that sentence, of course, given the team’s losses to inferior teams earlier this season. Tampa Bay always gets a fight from New Orleans (3-7), so record aside, that’s no “gimme.” A road trip to Arizona (4-6) on Christmas Day will also be a challenge, and the Falcons (4-6) will test the Bucs again in Week 18.

If Tom Brady and Co. take care of business and beat the teams they should beat, though, the stretch run will look a lot better than the opening 10 games of the season. And if that’s the case, they might just head into the playoffs as a team that no one wants to face.

Unlucky? Or Poor Coaching/Execution? Why Not Both?

The reality is that yes, Barnwell is right to an extent. The Bucs have been quite unlucky in some areas throughout the first 10 weeks of the season. But that doesn’t excuse the team being poor in other aspects. Byron Leftwich’s play-calling has been rightfully criticized all year. The offense’s execution has been part of the problem, too. The team’s run game has been one of the worst in NFL history. Defensively, the Bucs have had their struggles against the run and have struggled to play a full four quarters. As a whole, Tampa Bay just hasn’t played complementary football.

Think of it this way. When a team wins the Super Bowl, there’s an element of luck to it, right? But that doesn’t mean the team didn’t coach well and play well on its way to the championship. Champions earn their way to the top. The same can be said on the flip side. An underperforming team can underperform both as a result of being unlucky and because of poor execution. The Bucs have earned every bit of their mediocre 5-5 record. But there’s reason to be optimistic that things will hit an upswing down the season’s final stretch.