Goal-Line Guide Week 12

Goal-Line Guide Week 12

I am thankful to everyone who has read my weekly Goal-lIne Guide articles this season. It is my best attempt to predict touchdown production on a weekly basis. For information on my methodology for this guide, you can check out my initial Goal-Line Guide article from this season.

Here are the Goal-Line Grades for all of the teams playing in Week 12.

Cowboys Coming Back

Dallas Cowboys Passing Goal-lIne Grade: 102.25

Not only does Dallas have the best Week 12 Goal-Line Grade through the air, but at 102.25, it is the highest grade overall. And the only Week 12 Goal-Line Grade above 100. A major factor for that score is the Raiders defense which has allowed a TD on 83% of the passing attempts they have faced inside their own 5-yard line. That is the highest rate in the league.

The big question is who will Dak Prescott throw to. CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are both questionable. They may both play, but after them, Dalton Schultz and Cedrick Wilson are tied with 5 red-zone targets each. Also, Malik Turner actually has more targets inside the 5-yard line than both Schultz and Wilson. This could be a tricky situation to navigate. But the potential rewards make the risk worth it.

Charging on the Ground and in the Air

Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 88.25

Los Angeles Chargers Passing Goal-Line Grade: 95.75

The best Week 12 Goal-Line Grade running the football belongs to the Los Angeles Chargers. The one main beneficiary for that should be Austin Ekeler. He has been very impressive scoring as a top 3 RB so far in 2021 for fantasy football. And while he has been efficient, one can most attribute that production to the workload. This is especially true near the goal line. This season, Ekeler has 75% of the Chargers carries inside the 5-yard line. He has also scored 5 touchdowns on those 8 rushing attempts.

The only thing more impressive than the Chargers Rushing Goal-Line Grade might be their passing score. At 95.75, the Chargers are behind only the Cowboys throwing in terms of the best Goal-Line Grade. While Ekeler is involved in the passing game, only 3 of his 11 red-zone targets came inside the 10-yard line.  The main beneficiaries of this Goal-Line score will likely be Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Allen tops the team in overall red-zone targets (15), while Williams leads the unit in targets from inside the 10-yard line.

Sneaky Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks Passing Goal-Line Grade: 95.5

Perhaps surprisingly, the Seahawks passing game has the 4th highest Goal-Line Grade of Week 12. Yes, Russell Wilson has been dealing with an injury, but perhaps the Washington defense is just the team they need to face to get things on track. They are particularly vulnerable against teams passing from inside their own 5-yard line. Washington is one of just 4 teams to surrender a TD on at least 75% of those throws near the goal-line.

D.K. Metcalf is the obvious player to target based on his size, athleticism, and production so far in his NFL career. However, the next red-zone target on Seattle may surprise some. Gerald Everett is tied with Metcalf for the team lead in targets inside the 10-yard line. While Metcalf is likely an every-week starter, Everett could find his way into fantasy football lineups this week.

Receiving and Rushing red zone data curtsey of 4 for 4

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