Everything you need to know about the Spurs NBA Draft Lottery odds

Where San Antonio’s picks stand with a month until the NBA Draft Lottery.

In April of 2023, the San Antonio Spurs went into the offseason with big expectations. With a generational prospect on the brink of entering the NBA, the 22-60 Spurs were at the mercy of the basketball gods and a rotating container of ping pong balls. It’s nearly a miracle (or an act of the universe, as Victor Wembanyama would say,) that San Antonio landed the number one pick.

A year later and things feel much different. With their future superstar, Wembanyama, in tow, the team is tasked with building a contender around him. Certainly the NBA Draft is a great way for them to do that, but there is much less pressure on landing the first pick than there was last year. Especially in a relatively flat 2024 NBA Draft class that doesn’t feature a clear number one prospect.

Yet the Spurs still find themselves in a position where the NBA Draft Lottery matters to them. They own their own first rounder, and potentially the Toronto Raptors first-round pick thanks to the Jakob Poeltl trade last season. The lottery will decide whether the Spurs get one or two picks, making them once again one of the most interesting teams to watch on lottery night.

San Antonio finished the season with the fifth-worst record in the NBA. Their pick has a chance to convey anywhere from first to ninth overall. Here is how the percent chances shake out at each position:

1. 10.5%
2. 10.5%
3. 10.6%
4. 10.5%
5. 2.2%
6. 19.6%
7. 26.7%
8. 8.7%
9. 0.6%

Last season, the Portland Trail Blazers had the fifth-best odds at landing the number one pick, and picked 3rd. In 2022 the Indiana Pacers dropped from 5 to 6. In 2021 the Cleveland Cavaliers went from 5 to 3. In 2020 the Detroit Pistons dropped from 5 to 7. So the results of this pick are a bit all over the map, but the likelihood of the Spurs drafting at 5 is fairly slim.

The more pressing question for the Spurs is whether the Raptors pick conveys. It is top-6 protected, meaning if Toronto’s selection is seventh or later, it will go to San Antonio. The Spurs have a 54.1% chance of acquiring the pick, according to the lottery probabilities. The Raptors have the following likelihood of selecting at each spot:

1. 9.0%
2. 9.2%
3. 9.4%
4. 9.6%
5. 0%
6. 8.6%
7. 29.8%
8. 20.5
9. 3.7%
10. 0.1%

On Lottery night, the NBA selects a series numbers at random that represent each team. They do this process to identify which teams will select picks 1-4. The rest of the lottery (picks 5-14) go in order, unless that is disrupted by a team leaping into the top-4. In that case, the team pushed out of the top-4 is bumped down to pick 5 and the rest of the lottery moves back a spot. For the Spurs to get the Raptors pick, they need at least one team in the 7-14 range to leap into the top 4, pushing the Raptors back to 7.

Last year the Orlando Magic had the sixth best odds and stayed at six. In 2022 the Trail Blazers dropped from 6 to 7. In 2021 the Golden State Warriors dropped from 6 to 7. In 2020 the New York Knicks fell from 6 to 8. History and the odds favor the Spurs getting this pick, but the lottery is designed to have a hint of randomness to it. If the Raptors pick does not convey in 2024, it will be top-6 protected again in 2025, and then again in 2026. If the pick doesn’t convey, it turns into two second-rounders conveying in 2026 and 2027.

San Antonio will also have two second round picks at 35th overall and 46th overall (courtesy of the Los Angeles Lakers.) If everything shakes out for the Spurs, they’ll have four draft picks in 2024. Without many roster spots available, that could mean a trade is an option for them.

The Spurs are facing less pressure than last year, but there will still be some sweaty palms on May 12th. As PATFO look to build this roster around Wembanyama, the more assets the better.