Could all four AFC West teams finish with a winning record?
This could be a record-setting season in the NFL’s AFC West Division.
No division in NFL history has ever finished from top to bottom with a winning record, but the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and potentially the Las Vegas Raiders are all expected to make the cut according to one major model.
Stats Perform, a leading stats and data provider for Comcast, Verizon Media, ESPN, and Google amongst others, has all four teams in the AFC West projected to win nine or more games this year.
The model for every team’s divisional standings and win totals was released earlier this week, highlighting the most competitive race for the top of the division between all four AFC West teams.
Kansas City still leads the pack; projected for 11.2 expected wins in 2022, a full 1.2 wins over the Denver Broncos with 10 expected wins.
Then, it’s a bit of a surprise, as the Las Vegas Raiders project for 9.6 wins this year, and the Los Angeles Chargers round up the division at 9.4 expected wins.
So how do their projections measure up against the oddsmakers in Vegas?
Consensus NFL Win Total Projections: AFC West
The latest consensus odds for win totals in the projected toughest division in the NFL have three teams at 10 or 10.5 projected wins for 2022, with one team right at the .500 mark at 8.5.
- Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5
- Los Angeles Chargers: 10
- Denver Broncos: 10
- Las Vegas Raiders: 8.5
Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs have gone above 10.5 wins in seven of the last nine seasons; with the only two below the projected number at 10 (2017) and 9 (2014). The Chiefs finished at 12-5 a season ago; the top record in the AFC.
Model Predicts Raiders to Finish Third in AFC West, Los Angeles Chargers to Finish Last
Perhaps the most noteworthy projection and discrepancy between the Stats Perform model and the oddsmakers is where they project the Chargers to finish relative to the Raiders.
Since the consensus Chargers’ win total odds are set at 10, the model projecting 9.4 wins isn’t that much of a disparity. However, the Raiders’ projection of 8.5 wins in Vegas, compared to the 9.6 expected wins is noteworthy.
All four teams rank in the top half of the NFL in strength of schedule for 2022 based on last year’s opponent’s win/loss record. The Chiefs are fifth, followed by the Raiders at 7, Chargers at 10, and the Broncos at 15.
With a murderer’s row of a division, as well as a sizably improved conference, there doesn’t appear to be much value on any team’s futures or win totals odds this far in the offseason.
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