Bucs 3-Year Outlook: DL

The Bucs have undergone something of a reset on the defensive line heading into the 2023 season. There’s been a youth movement with the starting group, though it’s still being anchored by a Pro Bowl-caliber nose tackle in Vita Vea. After having already picked up his fifth-year option for the 2022 season, Tampa Bay signed him to a four-year extension in January of 2022. With that, he is signed through the 2026 season.

Vea will be flanked by two young up-and-comers this year and for the foreseeable future. Logan Hall, the No. 33 overall pick last year, is entering his second season in the NFL and after adding some weight this offseason, he’ll get his first chance to really make an impact as a starter in Todd Bowles’ defense.

On the other side will be this year’s No. 19 overall pick Calijah Kancey. The rookie is someone who is believed to be ready to make an impact early in his career, and he and Hall both mark a shift toward quicker defensive linemen in Bowles’ defense.

With his four-year rookie deal, Hall is signed through 2025. As a first-round pick, Kancey has a four-year deal with a fifth-year option, so he could be around through the 2027 season.

Outside of the projected starting three or Vea, Hall and Kancey, the Bucs have very little committed to the rest of the unit in terms of long-term money. They signed veteran Greg Gaines to a one-year deal this offseason, and he’ll be a key rotational piece for the line this year. Pat O’Connor has been a key special teamer and occasional rotational guy for Tampa Bay in the past and will likely play that role well again this year, but he’s only on a one-year deal as well.

Willington Previlon, Deadrin Senat, Mike Greene and C.J. Brewer will all be looking to stick on the roster in 2023, and given that they’re on the fringe right now, they’re not guaranteed to be around in 2024 or 2025.

How This Year Impacts 2024 & 2025

Given that the Bucs have just begun the process of transforming their defensive line, there may not be a lot that could happen in 2023 that would cause them to blow things up or refresh the starting group again in 2024 or 2025. Vea will continue to anchor the unit, while Kancey and Hall will get plenty of opportunities to establish themselves as high-end starters for Tampa Bay.

Vea is an established force. Kancey has a lot invested in him as a first-round pick. So, of the three, Hall has the least security in his starting spot. This will be year two for him and while he’s young, it’s only his first year as a starter and he was a high second-round pick in 2022, he’ll have to show enough to make the Bucs confident that they can rely on him to play a lot of snaps going forward.

The former Houston Cougar put on the weight he needed to this offseason and is just under 300 pounds after playing last year in the 280s. Now it’s time for him to translate everything to the field and take a step forward.

This is a big year for Hall, as a disappointing season could leave him in an in-between spot in 2024 and 2025. Hypothetically, if Tampa Bay is in a place to compete at a high level next year and Hall hasn’t established himself as a viable starting option, perhaps the team already looks to replace him and relegate him to more of a rotational role. In other words, the Bucs need to see something from the 23-year-old.

The rest of the depth chart is what’s really up in the air as far as the future is concerned. There’s not a lot of established depth behind the starting trio, as Gaines is the only one really locked into a meaningful role. Maybe O’Connor steps up into a more established spot this year, but it still feels possible that Tampa Bay may add another depth guy before this season rolls around – possibly longtime Bucs veteran Will Gholston.

Regardless of what happens, though, the Bucs will need to continue building its depth up front next offseason and potentially the one after that as well. How Gaines, O’Connor, Senat and others perform in 2023 will determine just how many holes there are going into 2024 and beyond.

Three-Year Outlook: Bucs Defensive Line

As of right now, it looks like the Bucs’ starting defensive line for the next three or four years is set. With Vea, Hall and Kancey all locked in beyond 2025 and Tampa Bay building its defensive line in a way that makes it quicker and better at rushing the passer, it would be somewhat of a surprise to see any major changes to that top part of the unit over the next few years.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL and Bucs decision-makers can’t afford to just stick with this group for 2024 and 2025 if it’s underperforming and costing the team a chance to win. Whether Hall blossoms into what the team wants him to be remains to be seen.

Whether Kancey is the type of player Tampa Bay expects him to be also remains to be seen. There’s always the potential for moves to be made as necessary, but from what we know now, the three-year outlook for the starting group appears pretty straightforward.

Where the three-year outlook really gets interesting for the defensive line is with the unit’s depth. Gaines, Senat, O’Connor and a host of others will patch together the rest of the depth chart up front this year, but it’s clear that the Bucs will need to keep revamping their defensive front in the coming offseasons. They started that process with the selection of Hall last year and continued it by adding Kancey this offseason, but the project can’t be considered finished just yet.

Three-Year Outlook Summary

The Tampa Bay defensive line is thinner than it was a few years ago. Gholston, Ndamukong Suh, and Akiem Hicks are all gone, as is Rakeem Nunez-Roches, who grew into a valuable depth piece. Vita Vea, Logan Hall and Calijah Kancey make up a starting trio with a lot of pass rushing promise, but how well it holds up against the run will be something to follow this year.

You can see what the Bucs are doing up front on defense, but the next few years are going to put their change in philosophy to the test — and each year will determine just how much they have to tinker with the starting group and the guys rotating in behind them.