Betting the NFL draft: Tips, tricks and best practices to cash in
Let’s start with what people were thinking prior to Elway’s comments. Auburn quarterback Cam Newton was Carolina’s target with the first overall pick, a sentiment that wasn’t in doubt in the week leading up to the big day. Therefore, the draft began at pick No. 2, where the prevailing opinion was that Denver would select Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus before the Buffalo Bills nabbed Miller at No. 3. After all, both teams were in serious need of help along their respective defensive front sevens.
Elway’s comments flipped that narrative and, thus, the odds on which player would go second overall. Those comments also opened a window of approximately one to two hours in which the bookmakers failed to make the necessary corrections. While Miller to the Broncos at No. 2 was quickly installed as the betting favorite, Dareus to Buffalo at No. 3 was shockingly priced at 8-1. For those unfamiliar with the conversions, 8-1 essentially implies an 11.1% chance of a specific event occurring. Given the research that was put into both team needs and mock drafts prior to the draft, there was a significantly better chance than 11.1% of Dareus landing in Buffalo now that Miller was headed to Denver.
The top three picks in the 2013 NFL draft?
1. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
2. Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos
3. Marcell Dareus, DT, Buffalo Bills
The takeaway here is that a very specific piece of information might have broader ramifications, and it is within these broader ramifications where winning bets can be unearthed.
A bet worth considering
What kind of betting column would this be if it didn’t contain at least one wager worth considering — am I right?
I’d strongly recommend a look at the following: Total Pac-12 players selected in the first round: 4 (Over -125, Under -110).
The way I see it, Oregon pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, USC wide receiver Drake London, Washington cornerback Trent McDuffie and Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd are all headed for the first round, giving us a push in the worst-case scenario. Washington cornerback Kyler Gordon is the X factor. Some like him in the first; others project him in the second.
Feels like a freeroll to me.
