Best picks for Super Bowl MVP
Cincinnati Bengals
The Favorite: Joe Burrow, Quarterback (+375 odds, PointsBet)
Burrow improved to 5-1 in the playoffs after picking apart the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, and if Cincinnati can win its first Super Bowl in franchise history, it’s super unlikely anyone on the Bengals wins Super Bowl MVP other than Burrow. This is worth betting now rather than later simply because of Burrow’s track record against the top-seeded Chiefs. Burrow is a perfect 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and with Mahomes far from 100% healthy after getting hurt on Saturday against Jacksonville, the Bengals have a huge advantage entering the AFC Championship.
Face it, KC hasn’t been able to beat Cincinnati with Mahomes healthy, what makes you think the Chiefs can beat the Bengals without their best player at 100%? Sorry if we’re making out to be the like the winner of Sunday’s AFC Championship Game is a lock to win the Super Bowl, but that’s kind of how we feel, along with the rest of the sportsbooks. You can bet whether or not the Super Bowl winner will come out of the AFC or NFC, and every sportsbook has the AFC favored over the NFC.
Next Best Option: Ja’Marr Chase, Wide Receiver (+2500 odds, BetMGM)
Burrow has a ton of weapons, but his go-to guy is Ja’Marr Chase. That was the case when the two were together at LSU, and that’s the way it’s been since in the NFL, too. Chase’s hip injury from earlier in the season looks to be in the rear-view mirror, and even if he’s not 100%, he’s pretty darn close. Chase has caught a touchdown in three straight games and has had 60 or more receiving yards in nine straight contests.
The second-year pro is easily a top-five receiver in the NFL, and no one has really been able to stop him. If Burrow uncharacteristically throws a couple of picks in the Super Bowl, Chase could take home Super Bowl MVP honors. And if Philadelphia or San Francisco is dumb enough not to double-team him, look out. Chase could have a monster night.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Favorite: Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback (+350 odds, Caesars Sportsbook)
Despite suffering a gruesome high ankle sprain in Saturday’s AFC Divisional win over Jacksonville, Patrick Mahomes is still the consensus favorite to win Super Bowl MVP. If Mahomes didn’t get hurt on Saturday, the line would probably be right around 3/1, or just below it, but Mahomes’ injury clearly bothered him in the second half, and no one, not even KC, knows how healthy he’ll be come Sunday.
Mahomes is the favorite to win regular-season MVP, and if KC has a chance of winning its second Super Bowl in the last four years, they need MVP-level Mahomes. Mahomes looked like he was playing on one leg at times on Saturday against the Jaguars, and he still torched the Jacksonville defense.
However, Mahomes is winless against the Bengals, so you might not want to go all-in on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, or Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP. On the flip side, if KC does beat Cincinnati, the Chiefs will be in the driver seat to win the whole thing.
Next Best Option: Travis Kelce, Tight End (+2800 odds, PointsBet)
Travis Kelce is hands down the best pass-catching tight end in football, and if there’s anyone on KC worth betting on to win Super Bowl MVP outside of Mahomes, it’s Kelce. Kelce’s 14 catches on Saturday was a playoff record for most receptions by a tight end in a postseason game, and don’t be surprised if he continues to catch 10+ passes a game. Mahomes’ mobility will be limited on Sunday, and that means Kelce, aka, his security blanket, might just be even more involved this week.
Tyreek Hill is gone, and Mahomes still doesn’t have a go-to second option. Kelce can line up anywhere on the field, and he’s still going to be a problem for opposing defenses. The All-Pro tight end has caught six or more passes in five straight games, and Cincinnati at times has struggled defending the tight end position. Expect Kelce to play a bigger role than ever down the stretch, and with the line at +2800, there’s no reason not to put some money on Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Favorite: Jalen Hurts, Quarterback (+350 odds, multiple sportsbooks)
If Jalen Hurts didn’t miss two of the last three weeks of the season with a right should injury, he’d probably be the favorite to win regular-season MVP. Questions can finally be put to rest about whether or not Hurts would take the next step in his development after throwing for 22 touchdowns and over 3,700 yards and rushing for 13 touchdowns and over 750 yards this season. And questions about how healthy is shoulder is can also be put to sleep after throwing a pair of touchdowns and rushing for another in Saturday’s 38-7 blowout win over the New York Giants. Hurts is the epitome of a true dual-threat quarterback, and he’s shown that all season.
If the Eagles do win the Super Bowl, and FanDuel has them as the favorite, not betting on Hurts to win Super Bowl is a mistake. Everything the Eagles do on offense goes through Hurts, run or pass. Outside of Week 15 against the Bears, Hurts has been great taking care of the football. And if Philly is going to beat San Francisco, Hurts will have to do that against the 49ers.
The 49ers might have the best defense among the four teams left, and even though the line isn’t great at +350, if you like the Eagles to win the whole thing, you have to bet on Hurts. Yes, the addition of AJ Brown has taken Philadelphia to another level, but the Eagles wouldn’t be there without Hurts.
Next Best Option: AJ Brown, Wide Receiver (+3500, multiple sportsbooks)
The Eagles have two elite wide receivers in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, but make no mistake about it, Brown is WR1, and Smith is WR2. The Eagles knew if they were going to contend for a Super Bowl, two things needed to happen. One, Hurts needed to take the next step. That happened. And two, Philadelphia needed to add a true No. 1 receiver. So, what did Philly do in the offseason? They traded for Brown. And boy, did they hit the jackpot. Brown caught a career-high 88 passes for just under 1,500 yards and 11 scores in the regular season, and he hasn’t disappointed in the slightest.
And if the Eagles have a chance of winning the Super Bowl, they need Brown to continue to be elite. Brown wasn’t needed in Saturday’s 38-7 blowout win over the Giants, but if the Eagles are going to beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, they’re going to need him to be elite. And he’s more than capable of doing that.
Shoulder injuries are tricky for quarterbacks, and if Hurts does get hurt again, Brown is unequivocally the next best bet for Super Bowl MVP. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew heavily relied on Brown when filling in for Hurts in Weeks 16 and 17, and if Minshew is needed down the stretch, look for Brown to continue to get the majority of the targets. 35/1 on Brown is a great number too, so if you’re looking for a sleeper for Super Bowl MVP, assuming the Eagles win the Super Bowl, Brown is definitely that guy.
San Francisco 49ers
The Favorite: Christian McCaffrey, Running Back (+1800, PointsBet)
Before we get started, let’s establish one thing. When we say the favorite, we mean our favorite, not the sportsbooks’ favorites.
Quarterback Brock Purdy is the 49ers’ favorite for Super Bowl MVP, but he’s not ours. We know Purdy is a perfect 7-0 as San Francisco’s starter, but he struggled at times on Sunday against Dallas, and even though Philadelphia’s defense isn’t quite as good as Dallas’, the Eagles’ defense is no slouch. Just about every team’s quarterback is going to be the frontrunner for the Super Bowl MVP, but don’t take the bait. Instead, focus on the versatile Christian McCaffrey.
The 49ers knew if they had a chance of getting back to the Super Bowl, they needed one more offensive weapon. McCaffrey was that weapon. San Francisco traded for the All-Pro running back right before the trade deadline, and he’s exceeded expectations. Excluding McCaffrey’s first game as a 49er, the running back has scored at least one touchdown or recorded over 100 yards from scrimmage in every game except one.
Kyle Shanahan has used McCaffrey in a plethora of ways, and eventually, the 49ers have found a way for him to expose opposing defenses. With Purdy being just a rookie, expect Shanahan to continue to get the ball in McCaffrey’s hands, whether it be out of the backfield or as a receiver, and expect him to continue to torch defenses. The 49ers have so many weapons — Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, etc. — but McCaffrey is the most dangerous of them all. And with Shanahan being a run-first coach, ride McCaffrey for Super Bowl MVP if you think the 49ers win it all.
Next Best Option: Nick Bosa, Defensive End (+5000, DraftKings)
Finally, a defensive player. Yes, it’s rare a defensive player takes home Super Bowl MVP honors, but it does happen. Von Miller was the last one to do it back in Super Bowl 50 when he was with Denver, and two years before that, linebacker Malcolm Smith did it for Seattle. San Francisco certainly has a good offense, but of the four teams remaining, they have the best defense. And you what else they have? The best defensive player. His name? Nick Bosa.
Bosa is the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, and even on a defense stacked with stars — Fred Warner, Talanoa Hufanga, etc. — Bosa is the best of the bunch. Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks in the regular season, and even though he hasn’t had one yet this postseason, his time will come.
Bosa has been a nightmare for opposing offensive lines all season, and no matter how much you prep for him, he still finds a way to wreak havoc. Three Super Bowls ago, San Francisco lost to Kansas City, but it wasn’t because of Bosa. Bosa forced a fumble and recoded a sack, and if San Francisco is able to upset the Eagles, don’t be shocked if Bosa has a big night against Cincinnati’s banged-up offensive line or Kansas City’s.
San Francisco needs to get past Philadelphia first, but if the 49ers do, Bosa for Super Bowl MVP — especially with the odds currently at 50/1 — is hands down the best bang for your buck bet.
