Triple-digit heat today, heavy rain possible late weekend

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

TEMPS SOAR: Triple digits expected Today and Friday
LORENA’S MOISTURE: Tropical moisture surges into Texas this weekend
HEAVY RAIN: Highest odds Sunday evening into Monday across South-Central Texas
RAINFALL TOTALS & UNCERTAINTY: Widespread 1–3″ possible, bullseyes of 5″+; exact locations still unclear

FORECAST

A mid-level ridge is currently dominating the region, keeping skies clear and temperatures elevated.

HEATING UP

Before rain chances ramp up, South Central Texas will bake under sunny skies and dry heat. Highs will soar to triple digits and dry. Expect heat indices near or just below the actual air temperature.

HURRICANE LORENA & WEEKEND RAIN

Tropical Storm Lorena is expected to weaken as it hits the Baja Peninsula Friday, but its leftover tropical moisture and energy will surge into Texas over the weekend. This influx of moisture, combined with a cold front sagging south, will increase the potential for heavy rainfall Sunday evening into Monday.

The path and timing of Lorena’s movement will be vital to this forecast, but confidence is growing that rain will be a good bet—especially during the second half of the weekend. Sunday afternoon/evening brings the highest rain chance, with lingering showers possible into Monday.

Forecast models show precipitable water values near 2 inches, which is well above average for early September. That means storms could be very efficient rain producers. While the exact location of the heaviest rain is still uncertain, isolated bullseyes of 5 inches or more are possible.

UNCERTAINTY & LOCALIZED IMPACTS

Where will the heaviest rain fall? That’s still to be determined. Think of it as a “rain lottery”—some neighborhoods may get drenched while others stay mostly dry. Localized flooding is possible in areas that receive repeated downpours, especially in low-lying or poorly drained spots. Plan ahead for rapidly changing conditions, especially if you have travel or outdoor activities scheduled late in the weekend.