2022 San Francisco 49ers win total: Lance and the Gang are going for it
For a team that came pretty close to making it to the Super Bowl, this was a very interesting offseason for the San Francisco 49ers. For starters, there was the Deebo Samuel contract stuff and now it looks like the 49ers are finally ready to move off Jimmy Garoppolo and give the starting QB role to Trey Lance.
They also are going to be breaking in a new offensive coordinator, though that is less of a concern given that coach Kyle Shanahan is so hands-on with the offense. Look for things to be business as usual on that side of the ball, but with a much more athletic presence that could make the run game even more deadly.
The 49ers play good complimentary football so they don’t need Lance to win a lot of games for them. He just can’t lose them by making mistakes. That is going to be the pressure point because the last starter was a winner through and through. You can knock Garoppolo in a lot of ways, but you can’t say the team was bad with him at the helm.
This is a low total for a team that could very easily make a Super Bowl run. Look at that juice though. That makes it hard to work at the current number (even if it looks like easy money).
San Francisco 49ers win total
Over 9.5 (-145)
Under 9.5 (+125)
Best Bet: Over 9.5
I like this San Francisco team a lot even though there is uncertainty at the quarterback position right now. If you are comfortable with Lance and trust the rest of the team, you might want to consider them on an alternative line (10.5) for better value.
With a first-time starter at quarterback, it is nice to have some easy early games and the 49ers have that, playing Chicago and Seattle the first couple of weeks of the season.
A visit to Denver is going to be tough, especially because San Francisco might be looking ahead to its next game, a home date with the rival Los Angeles Rams. I do think the 49ers can beat the Broncos on the road. Denver has an edge at QB overall but they are still a team with a lot of moving parts (new coach/scheme/QB).
Even if they fall to the champion Rams at home, road games at Atlanta and Carolina look easy for this group so the Niners should be able to bounce back quickly. If they beat the Rams at home, a 12-win season looks very possible.
After that stretch they have back-to-back tough games, hosting Kansas City and then heading to LA to face the Rams again. They probably can’t beat the Rams twice, but if they do they might wrap up the NFC West before their bye the following week.
The second half is not nearly as difficult with games against Washington and Seattle again, plus a game against a Saints team with a lot of questions of its own. They also have both of their games against Arizona, including hosting the Cardinals the final week of the season.
San Francisco is one of the top teams in the league. Whenever I go through their schedule I see them winning at least 11 games and maybe Lance is ready for a playoff push. They aren’t a great price at this lower total right now but the over is the play.
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