1.3 million Texans who voted so far this election didn’t in 2016, a likely gain for Dems, experts say
- Courtesy Photo / Bexar County Elections Office
- A voter hand-delivers his ballot at the Bexar County Elections Office.
As of yesterday, 1.3 million Texans who didn’t vote in the 2016 presidential election have already cast an early ballot in this year’s contest, according to a Texas Democratic Party analysis of county elections data.
That turnout surge between the last presidential election and this one suggests a higher turnout among younger voters who weren’t old enough to vote in 2016 and those not mobilized during the last cycle, political experts say. Both categories are likely to skew Democratic.
“Those two groups, either younger voters or previously unmobilized voters, are likely to vote Democratic,” said Michael Jones-Correa, a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania. “That’s a significant number.”
“Those assumptions could be correct, but they’re not complete,” said Sepulveda, who served as Texas state director for the 2008 Obama presidential campaign.
Early voting has surged primarily in urban and suburban counties, according to polling data, again suggesting gains for Democrats. Harris County, where Houston is located, has tallied record turnout, for example.
However, Jones-Correa cautioned that Republicans could be equally energized and just waiting until Election Day to cast their ballots. Conversely, though, Democrats’ high turnout in early voting could demoralize some GOP voters leading them to stay away from the polls.
“I’d say either of those scenarios are equally likely,” he added.
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