Spurs Prospect Preview: Ron Holland

An athletic shot creator with defensive upside could be exactly what the Spurs need on the wing.

On March 21, the NBA announced it would be canceling it’s developmental squad for prospects, the G League Ignite, just four years after it launched in 2020. After a pitiful 4-32 record this season, the league decided that Name Image and Likeness in college, and the option for prospects to play professionally overseas eliminated the need for the team. The Ignite were never built to win a G League championship, they were built to get prospects drafted.

They certainly accomplished that task in the 2024 NBA Draft. Three Ignite prospects are expected to go in the first round. Chief among them is the athletic wing from Duncanville, Texas, Ron Holland. The state’s native is one of “draft twitter’s” darlings, and someone the San Antonio Spurs could select with either the fourth or eighth pick.

Before he was sidelined in February due to a thumb injury, Holland was heavily involved in first-overall pick discussions. The Ignite’s struggles and Holland’s inefficiencies on offense seriously tanked his value, with some mock drafts placing him outside of the top-10. Yet, there has been no Ignite player more productive than Holland. He was a scoring machine this season, averaging 20.6 points, more than other Ignite standouts like Scoot Henderson, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga.

There are moments when Holland looks like a superstar in the making, and others where he frustrates with defensive lapses and offensive mistakes. Reports from scouts seem to be all over the place on his value. Holland’s scout could be the toughest, and most important in this year’s draft. His tools give him an incredibly high upside, but his deficiencies as a player are hard to overlook.

Ron Holland, 6-foot-8 Wing, G League Ignite

2023-2024 stats: 20.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 44.3% FG, 24% 3PT, 75.7% FT (14 G League regular season games)

Player comparison: RJ Barrett

Strengths

Holland is an incredible athlete. At 6-foot-8 (6-foot-6.75 without shoes) with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, his frame is one of the best in the draft. He tested well at the NBA Draft Combine, with a 38-inch vertical leap and 3.10 second thee-quarter court sprint. His athleticism really pops on the court.

On multiple occasions this season, Holland jumped a passing lane for a steal and quickly darted to the other end for a reverse slam. His burst makes him a dangerous weapon in the open court. Holland scored most of his points (182 of them) in transition. He was a decent finisher in traffic, especially for an 18-year-old playing against older G Leaguers. Holland shot 59.8% at the rim on 271 total attempts. He’s one of the stronger drivers in the draft, as defenders just bounce off him on the way to the basket.

That burst and finishing ability translates to the half court as well. Holland is excellent at attacking a gap when it’s there. He has a quick first step and can get to the rim in a few dribbles. The Ignite took advantage of this skill often, running Holland off hand-offs from the corner, giving the wing a head of steam going to his right hand. If he wasn’t finishing at the basket, he was finding teammates for open looks.

An underrated part of Holland’s game is his passing ability. Yes, he has some turnover issues he needs to address, but he also makes some high-level reads as a connective playmaker. The Ignite did not prioritize having a true point guard to set up the wings on the roster, rather letting Holland and Matas Buzelis make plays. Holland stepped into the role and had a 16.1 assist percentage. That’s about where Jeremy Sochan’s ast% was last season. He’s not a point guard by any means, but he is capable of making reads off the bounce.

On top of that, Holland has some good ball skills. His handle needs just a bit more work, as he still loses his dribble every once in awhile. In his lone G League season he created shots for himself at will. Did he finishes them at a high rate? No, and we will get to that. That aside, Holland can get to his spots well and does it with the fluidity that prospects who are scorers at the next level typically do. If his shot improves with a few years of intimate work with a shooting coach, he could turn into a three-level scorer.

Holland has the reputation as a “high-motor” player. There are times where he will sacrifice his body to save a ball from going out of bounds, or hustle for an offensive rebound. His effort occasionally shines through on the defensive end. When he locks in, there are few better perimeter defenders in the draft. Holland will put a ball-handler in jail and not let them out until they pass it. He’s great at jumping the passing lanes, particularly on handoffs to get easy buckets at the other end. His 2.5 steals per game were a product of his aggressiveness on that end. With his frame and athleticism, he has the potential to be an elite defenders. He will need to clean up some mistakes on that end to reach his defensive ceiling.

Weaknesses

Multiple reports have indicated that NBA scouts have been disappointed by Holland’s lack of shooting progression over the course of the season. He shot 24% from three on 3.6 attempts per game, and shot just 44.3% from the field. Holland also shot just 36% during the star shooting drill at the Draft Combine. His mechanics aren’t totally broken, but there are some quirks in his upper body that seem to lead to bad misses.

Unlike some of the non-shooting players in the 2024 NBA Draft, Holland has shown glimpses of making high level shots. He looked comfortable hitting step-back threes, pull-ups in mid-range and from three. He has soft touch around the rim, and shot a respectable percentage from the free throw line. There is a lot of room for improvement with his jumper, but I believe there is also plenty to be optimistic about.

His lack of shooting muddies his off-ball role at the next level. Holland showed very little as a cutter with the Ignite. Perhaps it was their offensive system, but Holland did a lot of standing and waiting for the ball to come to him. According to Synergy, Holland made just 18 shot attempts on cuts (where he made 12 shots.) Holland most likely won’t be the primary option on whatever team drafts him. He will need to learn how to impact the game without the ball in his hands offensively. Right now he can bend a defense with his driving ability and secondary playmaking, but NBA teams will likely want to see more from him off the ball.

Holland turned the ball over far too often with the Ignite. He averaged 3 turnovers a game and had multiple games with 4 or more giveaways, including 11 against the Salt Lake City Stars in November. That may have been a product of a poorly structured Ignite team that asked him to do too much, and a big adjustment to the NBA game right out of high school.

Typically Holland’s defense is mentioned as one of his core strengths as a prospect, but I was disappointed by a lot of his possessions. When he’s locked in, he’s great. But too often Holland will stand up and down defensively and miss a rotation or get there late off the ball. His screen navigation needs a lot of work, as he either can’t get around or gets lost on picks. He miscommunicates a switch far too often in those actions. He’s incredibly prone to falling for fakes and his over-aggression leads to some sloppy closeouts. He misses a lot of box outs leading to offensive rebounds for the opposing team. Holland has the potential to be a highly impactful defender, but he needs to show he can do it on a consistent basis.

Spurs fit

Holland is one of the most intriguing prospects for San Antonio. Holland might have the highest upside of the wings in the 2024 Draft. If everything goes right in his development, he could become another star next to Wembanyama. With so many players in the draft profiling as just a “role player,” Holland is a legitimate All-Star swing, who has a higher floor than other projects. He just doesn’t fit well with the current Spurs roster.

The Spurs want the ball in Wembanyama’s hands. They need players who can space the floor and compliment him on both ends. Currently, there are a few players in the draft who can do that better than Holland. Questions still remain as to what Holland looks like in a scaled down role. How will he succeed if he’s not getting a steady diet of possessions with the ball in his hands? How many non-shooters can the Spurs play alongside Wembanyama Your answers to those questions will likely determine how you feel about Holland’s fit with the Silver and Black.

But is it a bit too early to discount a player with the upside of Holland for fit concerns? The Spurs won just 22 games last season. If they take a patient approach, why wouldn’t Holland be in contention for the eighth pick? If he hits his ceiling, he’s the perfect wing to play with Wembanyama. A player who can run in transition, get to the rim and create an advantage in the half court. If he becomes a more consistent defender, the Spurs become a nightmare on that end. The final piece is his jump shot. If Spurs shooting coach, Jimmy Barron, and the rest of the staff think they can make him a threat from deep, he could become a core piece for the franchise.

If the Spurs want to take an upside swing in the draft, Holland seems like one of the better options. The concerns about his shooting and inefficiencies are real, and could ultimately discourage San Antonio from selecting him. Almost every prospect in this draft has flaws that keep them from being a sure thing – not many of them have the tools that could make Holland a star.

Previous Prospects:

Rob Dillingham

Reed Sheppard

Nikola Topic

Zaccharie Risacher

Stephon Castle

Tidjane Salaun