Predicting the San Antonio Spurs’ quest for the Emirates NBA Cup
The path to cup is an arduous one with a tough schedule for the Spurs. Do they have what it takes to get out of their group?
The San Antonio Spurs’ hunt for the Emirates NBA Cup (the award for winning the in-season tournament) is an opportunity to showcase the youngsters’ growth among stiff competition and earn a nice loot as they advance through the gauntlet. They are set in the Western Conference’s Group B with the reigning In-Season Tournament champs Los Angeles Lakers, plus the Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz.
There are six groups and the rules stipulate that eight squads move on to the knockout rounds. Those teams are the ones with the best record per bracket plus two wild card squads. After that, the remaining four outfits head over to the semifinals and conclusion in Las Vegas.
Advancing for the Spurs in the tourney won’t be easy, considering it’s likely Kevin Durant and LeBron James’ last chances to win anything significant in the league. Yet, the same motivations will run through Chris Paul, a 20-year veteran in a gateway role with the Spurs.
Let’s predict how the road goes for the Silver and Black.
Vs. the Lakers on Nov. 15
Former “one-note wonder” JJ Redick has a better team than Gregg Popovich, but he isn’t the more prepared man.
On the attack, Chris Paul and Victor Wembanyama will piece up coverages on two-man actions, hoisting from deep and finishing dunks up close. Stephon Castle will move well without the ball, capitalizing on backdoor and slot cuts and generating offense by forcing turnovers. The Lakers’ weak outside defense won’t stop Devin Vassell from incinerating protections on kickouts and transition plays.
Defensively, the Spurs can pressure the ball in full-court press with Castle. And the key is to limit the Lakers’ fastbreak opportunities. Last season, the Purple and Gold were third in that category.
James might get trigger-happy from deep, which would be disastrous, but if he plays his normal rim-attacking style, Wemby will be in the back to challenge him and Anthony Davis’ rim rolls.
The matchup to watch is the French Usurper against the Brow. The former can’t match strength, but his eight-foot wingspan lets him recover well at close range to force misses. If Wemby shuts down the back, Davis will have to rely on a suspect jumper.
Final prediction: Spurs take first blood.
Vs. the Thunder on Nov. 19
Count on Wembanyana tagging his counterpart, Chet Holmgren, but otherwise, this is an awful matchup for the Spurs. The Thunder now have more muscle surrounding the interior with Isaiah Hartenstein, who recorded the fifth most offensive rebounds last season and was a pest defending the square for the New York Knicks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets into the lane more than any guard and was tied for first in free throw attempts (8.7) with Luka Dončić. The Spurs will also have to stop Jalen Williams, a strong guard, from pressuring the paint.
On offense, Wembanyama will deal with one of Holmgren or Hartenstein with the other roaming as a weak side shot-blocker. He and Chris Paul will attract the corner defenders away from Vasell and Harrison Barnes.
San Antonio’s path to victory is taking care of the ball, staying down on SGA’s pump-fake, converting deep looks and getting to the line often to slow down OKC’s transition attack.
Final prediction: Thunder blast the Spurs.
At the Jazz on Nov. 26
Slowing down Lauri Markkanen’s paint and deep shooting plus neutralizing John Collins’ baseline actions is the priority. Yet, the Jazz could make things problematic if they start a huge lineup of two guards, Keyonte George and Collin Sexton, with Markkanen, Taylor Hendricks and Collins. That lineup was their fourth-most used in 2023-24 and it generated turnovers on 17.8% of opponents’ possessions, good enough for the 93rd percentile, per Cleaning the Glass.
Furthermore, the Spurs will counter by boxing out and getting nasty on the glass to prevent extra chances for the Jazz.
On the other side, Paul will avoid losing the ball in the passing lanes, but since he’s older, slower, and short, blitzes might give him trouble. However, the visitors should be able to force overreactions by swinging the ball and feeding Wembanyama, which will expose the 3-point line. The Jazz conceded the highest percentage (39.5) of opponent trays last season.
Prediction: Spurs win decisively.
At the Suns on Dec. 3
Keep this date circled on the calendar because it’s the first chance Wembanyama has to pay back Durant and Devin Booker for the Olympic final in which Team USA defeated France. And taking into account how much admiration Wemby has for the Slim Reaper (Durant), the young lad is going to make a statement as he did versus the Milwaukee Bucks on Jan. 4, when the Spurs narrowly lost.
Don’t discount CP3’s determination to upstage his old team, either.
This year, Phoenix is commanded by former Pop disciple Mike Budenholzer. The Suns will put out a respectable defense and the attack will have more motion and off-ball movement than with Frank Vogel.
The Spurs will lock and trail the snipers tightly to deny the ball. Castle will be leaned on for this and bothering the up court set-up. Additionally, forcing the Suns into poor-quality 3-pointers will allow the guests to get into the open court more often. If Tre Jones is on the floor, his speed can be a lethal weapon if the outlet pass hits him in stride.
Booker and KD will likely get anything they want at the elbows and baseline when coming off screens.
On offense, Barnes will be a weight bully, scoring at close range against mismatches. Wemby will get shadowed by KD because Jusuf Nurkić isn’t suited for all that outside action. Yet, engaging in a shooting contest with Durant is a fool’s endeavor. Wemby will have more success on pick-and-roll sets. And with Slim on his back, he should be able to pull off moves like his post up early in the gold medal game against Joel Embiid- moving left, then finishing off the glass going right.
A key to victory is putting Nurkić in foul trouble and it’s possible. Last season, he had the most personal fouls (254), playing in 16 matches with at least five penalties and was disqualified from six.
Prediction: Suns pull away from Spurs in a close match.
Final group stage record: The Spurs finish 2-2 and do not advance. It will go better than last season’s in-season tournament, when the Spurs went winless in group play, but they’re not quite ready to advance just yet.
