It’s not time to panic about the Spurs’ early season struggles

The Spurs haven’t looked great so far, but it’s nothing that can be fixed with a little time and effort.

Four games into the 2024-25 season, the Spurs are sitting where most likely predicted they would be (at least record-wise) when the schedule came out. They are currently 1-3 with road losses to two championship contenders in the Dallas Mavericks and OKC Thunder while splitting a home-home miniseries against a more talented, further-along-in-their-rebuild Rockets team. Even the most optimistic fans probably had them at 2-2 at this point, so the reality is they aren’t off schedule.

However, the Spurs’ performance on the court has been mixed, to put it mildly. While there have been some notable improvements from last season — Jeremy Sochan looks very comfortable back at his natural position and poised for a potential breakout season; despite some lapses, the overall defense is noticeably better, etc. — there have also been some causes for concern.

First and foremost, Victor Wembanyama has not been himself through the first four games. Some of that is to be expected after he took some much needed time off following the Olympics and is easing his way back into game shape, and he also mentioned being under the weather after the Rockets miniseries. But even beyond him looking gassed at times, his decision-making has been questionable to say the least. He’s playing mostly outside the paint, getting pushed out of his spots, jacking up too many threes (which he sometimes does out of frustration when his teammates don’t get him the ball), and his turnover rate of 3.8 per game is way too high (although in fairness, the entire team’s is).

Some of this may look like effort/conditioning issues, but Zach Lowe (formerly of ESPN — what were they thinking letting him go?) has a couple of theories:

Spurs issue is simple: Every team is now putting their Cs on Sochan, guarding Wemby with wings, switching/taking away the easy stuff. Not even sure Spurs have a non-Sochan lineup that would force opponents to guard Wemby with Cs. They have to get more creative, Wemby more forceful.

Could get into actions earlier, run PNRs designed to get smaller/weaker defenders on Wemby, and attack from there. Some cross screens too. Stops/transition would help. Pop + staff are 100X smarter than I am and surely in the lab. They really miss Jones and esp Vassell’s shooting.

Lowe is not alone in the observation that, as well as Sochan is playing with endless effort and leading the team in scoring with 18.5 points per game, it is pushing Wemby away from the basket and allowing for easy defensive switches. But is that the only reason for his offensive struggles and poor decision-making with the ball, or are there other factors at play that will improve without forcing Sochan out of the offensive mix?

Lowe also points out how badly the Spurs are missing the injured Devin Vassell and Tre Jones right now. Vassell would bring another scorer who can create for himself and others to the starting lineup, which in turn would make it harder for defenses to switch and crowd Wemby. It would also spread out the offense more and allow Wemby to return his preferred spots on the floor. As for Jones, his return will get a floor general back with the second unit, which has been severely underwhelming and turnover-prone on offense with Blake Wesley, Malaki Branham and sometimes Stephon Castle splitting ball-handling duties.

Beyond simply being healthy and whole again, there are other simple factors that could help improve the product on the floor. Wemby will find his legs again, but there is also the possibility that Pop is letting him free lance right now. Other than saying he wants Wemby to face the basket more, Pop may just be trying to avoid preventing him from just being himself, as he admits he tried (and failed) to do with Manu Ginobili all those years ago. This may also explain why we’re seeing more “Point Wemby” than we should, even with Chris Paul on the court. (Point Wemby could also stem from him just trying to stay closer to the defensive end while he works on his conditioning, which again will improve with time.)

Another (theoretically) easy issue to fix is the turnovers. The Spurs lead the league with 18.8 per game, and without going back and doing the math, the eye tests suggest 30 to 40% of them are unforced, whether it’s fumbling a pass or dribble, errant passes, moving screens, etc. Just take better care of the ball and keep the opponent out of transition, and the Spurs’ improved halfcourt defense will help keep the score down for other other team while the offense works to find itself.

In the end, it’s only been four games, and as uneven as the Spurs have looked in their first four games, most of their issues are fixable and shouldn’t be too concerning — at least not yet. The imminent return of a couple of injured players should help with some of their offensive woes, Wemby should return to normal soon, and simply getting over some of those issues that tend to plague young teams (like carelessness) will help as well.

The good news is there are still positives to be gleaned from the first four games. Sochan seems primed for a breakout, the halfcourt defense has certainly improved (it just needs more consistency), and unlike last season, the team is fighting back instead of melting down when the going gets tough. It’s too early to panic or draw any conclusions, although if we’re still talking about the same issues in 20 games, then perhaps we will have another talk. Still, if the Spurs simply avoid their massive November losing streak that became a staple of the last few seasons, we’ll know they have taken another step forward.