How the Spurs will improve this season
A look at statistical areas where the new-look Spurs should improve.
Nearly anyone who follows basketball expects the San Antonio Spurs will be better than last year. It’s hard to get worse after a 22-60 finish in 2023-24. There are legitimate reasons for optimism, though. Victor Wembanyama is coming off a dominant rookie season and enters this year as a top-20 (conservative) player. The veteran additions of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes will not only help the Spurs on the court but teach the younger players how to win off of it.
Narratively, it’s not hard to envision an improved San Antonio squad. Just how are they going to improve? What areas of the game will they make strides in? Last season the Spurs were 26th in the league in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating. There are a lot of areas they need to improve if they hope to compete for a play-in spot like many expect them to. The following areas are where the Spurs can make the leap next year.
Three-point shooting
San Antonio was 28th in the NBA in three-point shooting last season. They’ve struggled to hit shots from deep for two straight seasons now. It hurt their offense efficiency and hindered their best player from being as lethal as he could be. Spurs GM, Brian Wright, recognized this and acquired some shooting this offseason. Both Paul and Barnes shot over 37% from deep last season. Inserting them into the starting lineup alongside Devin Vassell should open the floor up for Wembanyama.
The additions should almost certainly help the Spurs three-point shooting. Another factor is a positive regression to the mean for some players who slumped last season. Zach Collins shot 37.4% from three in the 2022-23 season, then hit just 32% of his deep shots last season. Can Keldon Johnson get close to the 39.8% three-point shooting season he had in 2021-22? Tre Jones shot 42.1% from deep after the All-Star break. If that leap was real, the Spurs should have two reliable shooting point guards.
San Antonio still has a lot of “non-shooters.” Jeremy Sochan and Stephon Castle need to prove they can hit shots at a semi-consistent rate. Even Wembanyama has strides to make as a three-point shooter. The Spurs are already in a better spot than last year with their shooting personnel, and a few things could swing in their favor to make the leap even greater.
Turnovers
Adding the “point god” does wonders for the organization of an offense. Last season the Spurs struggled mightily with turnovers, giving the ball away 15.1 times per game. It wasn’t rare for San Antonio to turn it over more than 20 times in a game. That should change with Paul at the helm.
Paul had a 6 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio last season. He’s one of the best floor generals of all time. Even in his late 30s, Paul has continued to be a savant with the ball in his hands. He should have a large role as the lead initiator in this offense. Jones slotting into the backup point guard role should help keep the bench unit on track when Paul sits.
One major variable is the ball security of Wembanyama. Last year the rookie turned the ball over 3.7 times a game. Maybe that was him figuring out how to play at the NBA level. Maybe his height and proclivity for flair as a ball-handler and passer will lead to high turnovers. Either way, reducing the number of turnovers from your primary scorer by one or two a game would help the Spurs’ offensive efficiency tremendously.
Perimeter defense
Wembanyama solves a lot of problems defensively. Arguably the most impactful defender in the NBA, he effectively locks down the paint with his shot-blocking prowess. On the perimeter, the Spurs left a lot to be desired. Opponents hit 37.3% of their threes against San Antonio last season. They often lost cutters or died on screens, leading to good looks for players on the perimeter.
This season they’ll have better defensive personnel across the board. Paul is older but a smart defender with great hands. Barnes brings a veteran presence but shouldn’t be relied on to defend one-on-one. Castle was one of the best defensive prospects in the draft and should make an immediate impact in his minutes. Combine that with the growing defensive skill of Julian Champagnie, Jones, Sochan and Vassell, and the Spurs should have stronger defenders around Wemby.
Shot quality
With better offensive players and more veterans, come better shots. Fans shouldn’t expect CP3 to be the prime player who dissected defenses nightly in the pick-and-roll. However, he should help put young players in position to succeed. I’m really excited to see Vassell and Sochan operate off the ball with Paul running the offense. CP3-Wembanyama pick and rolls will be one of the most fun actions in the NBA this year.
The bench should operate much more efficiently, too. Jones and Champagnie are huge additions to the second unit. Johnson has a lot to prove and is primed for a breakout season. I’m a firm believer that Collins will have a bounce-back year after struggling in 2023-24. Castle is an awesome glue-guy to plug in wherever the offense needs him, and can put pressure on the rim. The Spurs have more offensive weapons and a more balanced team that should lead to a more efficient offense this season.
