Gauging the Cardinals, Packers and potential Super Bowl contenders in top-heavy NFC

The unbeaten Arizona Cardinals and once-beaten Green Bay Packers meet in one of the most anticipated Thursday night games in recent memory (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox).

But come Friday morning, there still might not be a clear-cut favorite in the NFC.

As the NFL nears the halfway point of its first 17-game season, the NFC features one unbeaten team and four with one loss. The Cardinals, Packers, Rams, Buccaneers and Cowboys have a combined record of 30-4. Meanwhile, everyone in the AFC has at least two losses.

Even if the Cardinals (7-0) beat the Packers (6-1), they could still have several teams within a game of them at week’s end. And if the Packers win, the top of the NFC will get even tighter as the calendar turns to November. The challenge facing the Packers became greater this week as wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard were put on the reserve/COVID-19 list, which means that unless Marquez Valdes-Scantling can come off injured reserve — he’s missed the last four games with a hamstring injury — the Packers could be without their top three wideouts. Green Bay did activate receiver Malik Taylor, who had been on the COVID list since Oct. 15.

The Cardinals remain unbeaten and matched their best start in franchise history (7-0 in 1974).

They take on the 6-1 Packers on Thursday. It will be the best combined win percentage for a Thursday game in October or later in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). pic.twitter.com/qhYmgUCna7

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 25, 2021

It’s only the third prime-time matchup in NFL history between two teams riding winning streaks of six or more games in that season. It’s also just the third game with a reigning NFL MVP (Aaron Rodgers) against a team that’s 7-0 or better. The last such matchup also involved Rodgers and the Packers, who played the 7-0 Carolina Panthers in Week 8 of the 2015 season. Carolina won and ultimately reached the Super Bowl.

Here’s a look at the five NFC teams with one loss or fewer and their chances to represent the top-heavy conference in the Super Bowl. The list is in order of how the Football Power Index (FPI) currently ranks them overall.

Buccaneers (6-1)

Why they might be vulnerable: Special teams. Under first-year coordinator Joe DeCamillis, special teams have been inconsistent and often unreliable. Unable to settle on a kick or punt returner, the Rams rank 29th in average yards per kick return at 18.4 and 19th in yards per punt return at 7.5. In a Week 7 win over the winless Detroit Lions, special teams appeared woefully unprepared for an onslaught of scenarios the Lions attempted to jump-start their production. After scoring on the opening drive, the Lions recovered an onside kick and later that series faked a punt to convert a 17-yard pass for a first down, and later in the game they converted another fake punt for a 28-yard gain and first down. Rams coach Sean McVay said the team wasn’t surprised by the Lions’ tactics, but was unable to execute. That’s an issue for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, and the Rams must hope that it can be fixed despite seven games without much progress. — Lindsey Thiry

Cowboys (6-1)

FPI rank: No. 5

FPI chance of winning the NFC: 11.2% (4th)

Why the Cowboys are a legitimate Super Bowl contender: It’s popular to say defenses win championships, but the Cowboys have an offense that is difficult for any defense to stop. If teams want to sit back in coverage, running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have shown they can dominate games on the ground. If teams want to load up to stop the run, quarterback Dak Prescott can pick them apart with pass catchers Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz, plus Michael Gallup will return soon. With their ability to put up points, they can mask some of the deficiencies they have on defense. It’s a similar formula the Cowboys followed in 2014 and ’16. Those teams had their seasons end in the divisional round of the playoffs, controversially in 2014 (Dez Bryant’s non-catch) and agonizingly (Mason Crosby‘s field goal at the end), but this defense takes the ball away at a higher rate (thank you, Trevon Diggs‘ seven interceptions).

Why they might be vulnerable: Injuries. Maybe that’s too easy, but look at what happened last year when the Cowboys lost players. They fell apart. While the Cowboys are confident Prescott will play against Minnesota despite a calf strain, if it is something that limits him or nags him the rest of the way, that will affect the offense greatly. The Cowboys have dealt with a number of injuries (or absences) already and succeeded with guys such as DeMarcus Lawrence, Neville Gallimore, Gallup, Trysten Hill, Kelvin Joseph and La’el Collins missing time. In order to win, teams need to succeed without all of their cards. But let’s add another question: the defense. As much as the defense has improved from 2020, it still allows too many big plays, which is something that cannot happen in the playoffs. The Cowboys will face better quarterbacks in the playoffs (Brady, Rodgers, Murray, Stafford) so they can’t give up easy plays. — Todd Archer

Packers (6-1)

FPI rank: No. 7

FPI chance of winning the NFC: 6.7% (5th)

Why the Packers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender: There’s a hunger that permeates the organization after coming up a game short the last two seasons, losing in the NFC Championship Game. Once Aaron Rodgers returned from his offseason of discontent — and the Packers got their stinker of a season-opening loss to the Saints out of the way — they’ve looked almost as good as they did last year. Their offense hasn’t been quite as potent — the scoring numbers are down — but Davante Adams has been as productive as ever and has gotten just enough help along the way from the likes of Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. They’re the first team in NFL history to win six straight after losing an opener by 35 or more points, and that turnaround has fostered a quiet confidence. Rodgers seems satisfied with the way things have gone and appears to be locked in. There’s also the sense that this could be their last best chance to get to a Super Bowl for a while, especially if Rodgers wants out after this season. They’re in a tough salary-cap situation next year with or without Rodgers, so this season has a bit of a now-or-never feel to it.

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Stephania Bell breaks down what needs to happen for Davante Adams to be available for the Packers against the Cardinals.

Why they might be vulnerable: Injuries and their old bugaboo, the defense. After a charmed existence in the injury department in coach Matt LaFleur’s first two seasons, the Packers’ luck has turned. They might have to play the rest of the way without their two best defensive players, cornerback Jaire Alexander and outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. On offense, they’ve been shuffling their line almost every week, although things could stabilize when All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari returns following his January ACL surgery. That’s not likely to be this week at Arizona, but it could happen on Nov. 7 at Kansas City. The offense could also get a boost if deep-threat receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling can return from a hamstring injury that has cost him four games. They changed defensive coordinators, turning to Joe Barry, this offseason and the jury is still out on whether they’ve improved. The other factor is Rodgers. His NFC title game performances have not matched the rest of his typically heroic acts. If he doesn’t play better if and when the Packers get to that point, they’re headed for another disappointing end. — Demovsky