Futures for the 2022 NFL season after the draft
I was taking a look at the win totals markets after the NFL draft. Those numbers probably weren’t shifted too much by third-round running backs or “draft and develop quarterbacks” but the futures market is another one where we might be able to find some extra value now that we have a better sense of the talent that teams are working with.
A lot can happen between now and the first week of the season, but here are some of the future markets plays that you might want to get in on right now before the market shifts again.
Philadelphia Eagles +1800 To Win the NFC
Philadelphia Eagles +250 To Win the NFC East
These two plays are obviously linked. In my mind, the Eagles are the best team in the division, not Dallas. The Eagles made the playoffs last season and since then have added a top five receiver via trade and two defensive starters in the draft. Situated in a weak division, they are in a great spot to build on last year to take the division and host a playoff game. Taking the NFC means beating some really good teams at the end. However, if they are playing at home instead of Los Angeles or at Tampa things get interesting for the Eagles. Another year of development for QB Jalen Hurts is not to be discounted either.
Las Vegas Raiders +675 to Win the AFC West
This offseason, the AFC West has become the most competitive division in the NFL. The Raiders have not garnered the buzz of teams like Denver and currently sit 4th (last) in odds to win the grouping. This is an interesting development given they made the playoffs last season and have significantly upgraded the offense and defense over the winter. New coach Josh McDaniels is a question mark, but he has a lot more to work with than Jon Gruden did.
Buffalo Bills +380 to Win the AFC
The Bills have been one of the best teams in football the last couple of seasons. They have been eliminated twice at Kansas City, but I think they have a great chance to post the best record in the AFC and, as a result, host the most important games in cold weather. They drafted to support a roster that is strong in most areas but you can never have too many defensive backs and offensive weapons. Top pick, CB Kaiir Elam, gives them a chance to have a great CB duo once Tre’Davious White is all the way back from injury. This price is only going to go down from here.
Derek Carr (Most Passing Yards) +1200
Carr set a new career-high with more than 4,800 yards passing a year ago. That was in a season where they fired the head coach; his top target, Darren Waller, played just 11 games; and they lost their top speed receiver midway through the season. Carr has a new offensive-minded head coach in Josh McDaniels and a new top receiver in former Fresno State buddy Davante Adams, who might be the top receiver in the league. They finally have all the pieces to be great on offense and there’s no reason to think they won’t throw it around a lot.
David Bell to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year +8000
This one is my big sleeper from the awards category. When Bell was at Purdue he was one of the most physical and productive receivers in the Big Ten Conference. He did not play with an elite quarterback though and with no weapons around him, he was the focus of every game plan the Boilermakers faced. Landry is still unsigned and Amari Cooper has as much experience with the Browns as Bell does coming into camp. I can see him getting 10 touchdown catches and that might be enough even if his catch totals are lower than other rookies.
